College Football Week 2: BYU vs. SMU

The weeknight slate is much smaller in Week 2 of the college football season, as we get zero Thursday games and only two Friday games. The college ranks will step aside to give the NFL the Thursday spotlight with Ravens vs. Chiefs to open up the season, but Friday does not solely belong to the Packers and Eagles, so that’s nice.

BYU vs. SMU and Duke vs. Northwestern are the games that we’ve got on the docket and I’ll hit on both of them here, with a brighter spotlight on the bet I like more between the two.

 

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BYU Cougars at SMU Mustangs (-10.5, 56.5)

7 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Maybe Nevada is actually pretty decent. Does that excuse SMU for their Week 0 performance in Reno? Maybe not, but I think they’re a little bit undervalued in this matchup against BYU.

Both teams faced FCS foes last week and ran up the offensive numbers, as BYU crushed Southern Illinois and SMU bested Houston Christian. This will not be a return trip to elevation for the Mustangs, as the Cougars will come to Dallas, where it will feel like 92 degrees at kickoff.

It is possible that BYU has improved on defense, but last year’s unit gave up 5.93 yards per play to FBS competition and got gashed on the ground and through the air. The Cougars only mustered 11 sacks last year and only had a couple against the Salukis. If you give Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings time to throw, they will move the ball down the field. 

Jake Retzlaff moved the ball against SIU, but it’ll be a more difficult task against the Mustangs, who did play that tight one with Nevada, but still held the Wolf Pack to just 3.67 yards per play. BYU allowed 4.5 to Southern Illinois, for what it’s worth. Retzlaff also had just a 50.4% completion rate with a 3/3 TD/INT ratio last season.

It also seems like SMU maybe found something in Brashard Smith, who ran the ball sparingly over three years at Miami, but showed a good set of hands with 69 receptions. He’s ripped off 8.8 yards per carry thus far and a couple of receptions. 

I don’t see BYU slowing down SMU’s offense enough to stay in this game and I am not buying the Cougars offense against what has historically been a pretty solid Mustangs defense under Rhett Lashlee and his assistants.

Pick: SMU -10.5

Other Friday Games

Duke Blue Devils at Northwestern Wildcats (-2.5, 36.5)

9 p.m. ET, FS1

Duke beat Elon 26-3 to open up the Manny Diaz era with a dub, as the Blue Devils held the Phoenix to just 140 yards of offense. Two former FBS QBs in Matthew Downing and Jack Salopek combined for all 24 pass attempts for Elon, but the Duke defense looked quite stout with 16 tackles for loss and eight sacks.

Northwestern won an ugly 13-6 decision over Miami of Ohio, but did cover the number. The Wildcats had 4.8 yards per play on the ground and I think the offense will come together for new OC Zach Lujan and transfer QB Mike Wright. NW allowed just 4.4 yards per play on defense.

My line here is Northwestern -4.5, so I like the Purple Cats, especially if you can find a 2.5 at reasonable juice on this one. It’s just hard to see much offense here for NW to get a little margin, so I prefer the SMU play to this one, but I’ll likely end up on both.

Very Strong Lean: Northwestern -2.5

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