College Football Week 3: UNLV vs. Kansas

It will be a busy Friday night in the Sunflower State with both Kansas and Kansas State in action. Kansas welcomes UNLV to Lawrence and Kansas State entertains Arizona in Manhattan, as we’ve got a couple of quality games in the spotlight with no NFL on Friday this week.

Both games have spreads around 7 early in the week and both games have nearly identical totals in the 58 range. That type of symmetry sure is interesting – and a little random – but bettors will have some tough decisions to make on these two games.

 

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UNLV Rebels at Kansas Jayhawks (-7, 58)

Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Jayhawks will look to get back on track after a Week 2 loss at home to Illinois and UNLV steps up in class again after putting a beating on FCS Utah Tech. The Runnin’ Rebels already have a Power Four win over Houston, though Kansas is a much stiffer opponent from the Big 12.

It might be a good time to catch Kansas, though. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is now calling plays for Penn State and many felt like that was a big loss for the Jayhawks coaching staff. Perhaps that played a role last week, as QB Jalon Daniels threw three interceptions and Kansas had four turnovers in the six-point loss. They were -3 in turnover margin and Daniels only threw for 141 yards.

UNLV was firing on all cylinders with a 70 burger on Utah Tech last week. Obviously the opponent is a whole lot stronger, but the Rebels were impressive in the 27-7 win over Houston in Week 1 and have averaged 349 rushing yards in their two games. The question for UNLV is whether or not QB Matthew Sluka can make enough throws if called upon. He’s only 14-of-30 passing for 232 yards and was 6-of-13 for just 71 yards.

If Kansas can jump out ahead early and force UNLV away from the run, that could dictate how this game plays out and may be a live betting angle to explore. However, if UNLV is able to play from in front, as they have in both games thus far, then the run will shorten the game and potentially even keep them marching down the field.

I like the Rebels plus the points here. Kansas doesn’t seem buttoned up enough on offense to go out and win by margin. The loss of Kotelnicki seems significant and Daniels has missed a lot of football, so a little rust is hardly shocking.

Pick: UNLV +7

Other Friday Game

Arizona Wildcats at Kansas State Wildcats (-7.5, 58)

8 p.m. ET (FOX)

Some 7.5s started popping up on Tuesday for this game. Arizona’s lackluster performance against Northern Arizona may be playing a big part here. Also, Kansas State survived a pretty good Tulane team down in New Orleans in last week’s game. The Wildcats were badly outgained in that contest, which usually produces a negative sentiment in the market, but we aren’t seeing one here.

Tulane had a chance to tie the game, but Darian Mensah got picked off in the end zone and it is a short turnaround for K-State off of that game. So, the move off of the key number of 7 is definitely a noteworthy development.

This will also be the first big test for first-year Arizona head coach Brent Brennan. Brennan did a fine job with limited resources at San Jose State, but expectations are a little higher for the guys from Tucson, especially with the move to the Big 12.

Noah Fifita and Avery Johnson are two quality QBs and this should be an entertaining game, but I don’t see it as a great game to wager on. I will say that my line is Kansas State -4.5, so I’m off-market, but the line move on Tuesday is pretty telling and I respect it enough not to go against the grain.

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