Week 6 college football best bets
I can’t believe we’re already six weeks into the college football season. We’ve already seen our fair share of bad beats and backdoor covers, and we’re beginning to get a handle on some (definitely not all) teams as we reach the midpoint of the season. We’re still not sure who is truly elite, but you can check out my article from yesterday to see how these 2023 teams stack up to playoff-era champions.
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My T Shoe Index has been on fire overall, beating the closing spread and total 53% of the time for the whole season, including 128-93-7 in Week 5 for all FCS and FBS games. Let’s see what TSI has for us to bet this week.
College Football Betting Splits | CFB Odds | CFB Matchups | Week 6 Hub
Oklahoma vs Texas (-6.5), O/U 60.5
You knew it was coming. TSI has been higher on Oklahoma than pretty much any other model I’ve seen on the internet, and it’s time to put my money where my (model) is. The Sooners have been my No. 1 team for a few weeks now, and while Texas is a top-10 team, I project Oklahoma as an eight-point winner here. In terms of how these teams match up, the Oklahoma offense is rated No. 1, going against a Texas defense rated No. 4. Get your popcorn ready.
On the other side, the Quinn Ewers-led Longhorns offense is No. 12 and going to get tested against the No. 5 defensive unit. One last nugget here; Oklahoma has outperformed the spread by nine points per game more than Texas has this year, so oddsmakers have been slow to catch up to how good Oklahoma is. This is a heavyweight clash of the titans and I can’t wait to watch and hopefully cash an Oklahoma ticket here.
Pick: Oklahoma +6.5 (play to +3.5)
Bonus: .25 units on Oklahoma ML +210
Note: I think if you’re patient, you will be able to get +7 at some point this week, with the public being heavy on Texas. As always, monitor the market, explore all of your outs, and get the best number you can.
Baylor vs Texas Tech (-1), O/U 57.5
The return of QB Blake Shapen for the Bears last week was an eventful one, as Baylor overcame a 35-7 deficit to win a shootout against UCF, 36-35. While that was an impressive fourth quarter effort, those types of wins tend to come at the expense of an emotional letdown the following week, so I love the spot for Texas Tech here.
Further, and most importantly, TSI projects the Red Raiders as double-digit favorites here. A top-25 offense for the Raiders gets to lick its chops against a Baylor defense that ranks outside the top 80 in the country, while the Baylor offense is No. 71 going against a top-50 defensive unit. Texas Tech has been 12.8 points per game better against the spread than Baylor has been this year. Admittedly, Shapen missed some time so that data isn’t entirely representative as far as the Baylor offense is concerned, but the Bears defense is porous enough and the situation is enticing enough for me to pull the trigger on Texas Tech here.
Pick: Texas Tech -1 (play to -2.5)
Rice (-9.5) vs UConn, O/U 47.5
We lost a Rice over on the final drive last week, as ECU couldn’t punch one in the endzone, but that’s not stopping me from going back to the well for more. Rice and UConn have combined to go over the total by 7.4 points per game this year, and TSI projects a 54-point total in this game. While neither offense is much to write home about, the defenses are extremely bad – 91st and 107th, respectively. When playing a total between two bad teams I ask myself, “Can one team get close to hitting this over by itself?” and in this case, I think Rice absolutely could hang seven touchdowns on the Huskies. If we get any contribution from the UConn offense against this Rice defense, this should sail over.
Pick: Over 47.5 (play to 49)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
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