Week 7 college football best bets
We are coming fresh off of a 3-0 sweep on Week 6 best bets, so this week provides a great opportunity to build on the momentum with a great slate of primarily conference matchups. I posted on X earlier this week that there are several situational spots that I really like this week, so expect a full card from me coming later in the week. But for now, let’s get to my best bets for Week 7 of the college football season.
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Utah State vs Fresno State (-5.5), O/U 57
Note: This is a Friday night game.
Speaking of situational spots, let’s start off with Fresno State taking a second consecutive trip to altitude after losing outright as a favorite last week at Wyoming. VSiN Managing Editor and my friend Adam Burke wrote more about this in his weekly situational spots article, so be sure to check that out as well. Utah State is a team the T Shoe Index is much higher on, relative to the market, as demonstrated last week when they were a three point underdog to Colorado State in a game that TSI projected Utah State -15. Utah State won that game 44-24. This week, TSI projects the Aggies as a 6.5-point favorite, so coupled with the short week and consecutive altitude game for Fresno State, I love this spot for USU.
Pick: Utah State +5.5 (Play to +3.5) (Note: also would consider .25 units on the money line)
Utah (-13.5) vs California, O/U 45
Cal scored 40 points last week and somehow did not cover (Sorry, Tim Murray), and this week they face a Utah team that has fallen outside the top 100 in my offensive ratings. Utah, to me, has become Iowa-West, with an excellent defense and completely incompetent offense. The looming caveat here is the potential return of Utah QB Cam Rising. At the time of writing this Wednesday morning, there has been no update to Rising’s status; however, we do have to at least consider the fact he could play, which obviously helps Utah. Rising is worth roughly four points to the spread in my opinion, and this is a game I only project Utah as a 2.5-point favorite, so a touchdown spread with Rising would be more appropriate.
The fact we’re getting 13.5 here is too much to pass up, especially considering Cal coach Justin Wilcox is over 60% ATS as an underdog in his career, and that number is even higher at home and as a double digit underdog. Trends are not something that would automatically put me on a play, but combine a solid trend with outstanding value on the number and it’s a bet for me. As always, read the market and be patient here, as a Rising announcement could even push this line above 14, but even if not I’ll take double digits with the Bears.
Pick: California +13.5 (Play to +10.5)
Georgia State (-1) vs Marshall, O/U 55
This is definitely one of my favorite spots of the week; Georgia State is coming off of a bye week, while Marshall played a physically and emotionally draining shootout at NC State in a game that totaled 89 points (!!) and that Marshall led or tied most of the game. That was their Super Bowl, and now they have to come back on the road to a conference opponent who’s fresh and can put points on the board. I’m not sure what’s happened to the Marshall defense, who was at one time my No. 1 ranked Group of Five defense, but they’ve given up 83 points in their last two games, and I don’t think they’ll have enough left in the tank to survive a shootout here on the road. TSI projects Georgia State -3.5 here, so decent value on the number and a great situational spot. I’ll lay the point with the Panthers.
Pick: Georgia State -1 (Play to -2.5)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
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