College Football Week 9 Late Line Movement Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

This week, probably more than any week since week 1, has seen some crazy – and, in my opinion, inexplicable – line movement. I’ll get into the specifics here in a minute, but I want to remind you the purpose of this piece every Thursday is to analyze where the market has been, where it sits, and where it’s potentially going. Understanding the market behavior is a crucial piece of sports betting. Now, according to my T Shoe Index, let’s get into a couple of specific games where the line movement has been extreme and has created betting opportunities on the other side for some college football Week 9 best bets.

 

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Oklahoma State (+7; 65.5) vs. Baylor

3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Baylor made short work of Texas Tech last week, impressively so, but I’m not so sure that negates the dumpster fire they’ve been most of the season – and let’s face it, it was Texas Tech. Oklahoma State is having a disappointing season in the eyes of many, but they managed to give BYU all it could handle on the road last week after breaking in a new starting quarterback. This line opened at Circa with Baylor as just a 5-point favorite, and the early money came quickly on Oklahoma State, pushing the line down to 4 before seeing it balloon to the full touchdown it is now. I think this is way too many points for Baylor to be laying against a living, breathing Big 12 opponent with Ollie Gordon standing in its backfield. TSI projects Baylor -4.5 here, which aligns with the initial line move. I’m still digging into the season-long numbers, but last week, in games where TSI projected the road dog to cover, those teams went 17-9 overall. On the season, regardless of TSI projection, road dogs have covered at a 54% clip. I’ve been pretty low on the Cowboys, but I think they can keep it within this number, and it wouldn’t shock me if they beat Dave Aranda’s team in Waco. 

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: Oklahoma State +7 or better

West Virginia (+3.5; 53) vs. Arizona

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

If you follow me on X or watch me on my weekly Bets of the North show on the Kings of the North YouTube/podcast feed, you’ve undoubtedly heard my “Arizona is overrated” tirades all season. I’ve put my money where my mouth is, betting against the Cats several times so far this season, including last week when the market moved towards them against Colorado, and they got their doors blown off. I’m back for more this week, as I bet WVU +1.5 on Sunday, and the market’s appetite for Arizona knows no limits, so we’re now sitting here with a +3.5 line on the board, which I’ll gladly take with the Mountaineers. TSI projects WVU as a 5-point favorite here, as Arizona’s only positive game grade against P4 competition so far this season has been against Utah – who also sucks. West Virginia’s average grade against P4 opponents? 9.0. Neal Brown is probably coaching for his job here after a massacre of a second half last week against Kansas State.

College Football Week 9 Best Bet: West Virginia +3.5 (Play to +3)

For more Week 9 college football analysis, visit the Week 9 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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