College Football Win Total Best Bets:

After going back through the coaching changes, the Stability Scores, the transitional systems, the recruiting rankings, and playing out the schedule by my power ratings, I’ve locked in on 22 team college football win total bets that I will be making. At the conclusion of this piece are those 22 wagers, with the odds available at DraftKings. You’ll see that based on the recent success I’ve had, I’ve opted for a couple more Unders than Overs this season.

If you missed any of the information I’ve released over the last month and a half regarding college football season preparations, simply go back through the recent articles under the college football tag at VSiN.com for the links. Some of it will also be made available in the upcoming VSiN College Football Preseason Betting Guide, due out at the beginning of August.

 

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Before revealing my 2024 plays, however, I’d like to remind readers of how successful I have been using my preparation methods over the last two years of releasing my season win total wagers. In 2022, I went 14-5-1, including 9-1 on Unders. That success led me to expand my plays to 30 last year at this time. Those 30 bets wound up going 16-13-1 and are detailed below. Interestingly, I was again 10-4-1 on Unders. Perhaps I need to come to grips with those being my better leans. My overall two-year record is now 30-18-2 for 62.5%. In any case, here is a quick look back at what won and lost for me last season. This should give you a better idea of the criteria I use as the basis for my plays:

Here’s a quick wrap of my 2023 plays and the results

Akron – OVER 3.5 wins – LOSS
Akron proved to be as bad as advertised against my projections. The Zips won two games overall, none in upset fashion.

Ball State – OVER 4.5 wins – LOSS
The relatively experienced Cardinals came up a half-win short of their prop last season and juggled three starting quarterbacks throughout the season.

Kansas – OVER 6 wins -WIN
This was a relatively easy win. The Jayhawks went 8-4 in the regular season despite losing stud quarterback Jalon Daniels to injury.

Kansas State – OVER 7.5 wins – WIN
I felt Chris Klieman’s K-State team was vastly undervalued after a 10-win campaign in 2022. The Wildcats had QB Will Howard and a lot of other experience back. They went 8-4 before a Pop-Tarts Bowl victory.

Miami – OVER 7.5 wins – LOSS
In my writeup last year, I even proclaimed that I am usually the first to go against anything Miami in college football. I feel they are usually priced too highly by oddsmakers and perennially underachieve. I should have stuck with that. The Hurricanes were 7-5 in the regular season.

Nebraska – OVER 6 wins – LOSS
I put a lot of stock in the fact that Matt Rhule had been a better coach at the college level than in the NFL and figured that being back in his element would benefit the Cornhuskers. I also liked that Nebraska lost a lot of tight games in ’22. Despite all of that, Rhule’s team went just 5-7 with five losses again by 7 points or fewer.

Oklahoma – OVER 9.5 wins – WIN
Head Coach Brent Venables’ team was much better in Year 2 than Year 1. The Sooners wound up 10-2 in their final season in the Big 12.

Ole Miss – OVER 7.5 wins – WIN
Prior to last year, I marveled about how Lane Kiffin had taken Ole Miss recruiting efforts to the next level. The Rebels are now on a new talent level and provided me with an easy winner in going 10-2 before a Peach Bowl victory.

Rice – OVER 4.5 wins – WIN
Rice won five games in 2022 despite a horrible turnover ratio and brought back a lot of experience for 2023. The Owls also brought in transfer QB JT Daniels. In the end, they wound up 6-6 before a bowl loss.

South Alabama – OVER 8 wins – LOSS
I missed by two games on this one, as USA’s experienced 2023 team lost three games in upset fashion. This looked like it would go on to be a winner after a surprise 33-7 rout of Oklahoma State in Week 3.

South Carolina – OVER 6.5 wins – LOSS
Although Spencer Rattler had some nice moments at South Carolina, he was never able to take the Gamecocks to the next level. In his final season, they wound up 5-7 after a 2-6 start and never really challenged the prop.

South Florida – OVER 4 wins – WIN
One of my better calls for 2023, South Florida went 6-6 in the regular season and won a bowl game afterward, despite losing senior QB Gerry Bohanon for the entire season. It ended up being a blessing as replacement Byrum Brown proved to be a dynamic star.

Texas A&M – OVER 7.5 wins – LOSS
My belief in the Aggies and their recent recruiting under former Head Coach Jimbo Fisher sent me wayward. Coaching proved to mean more, as A&M finished 7-5 after going 0-4 in games with point spreads in the +3 to -3 range.

Utah – OVER 8.5 wins – LOSS
Utah had to play the 2023 season without veteran QB Cam Rising. It was a blow that was unexpected and would have definitively removed my bet had I known earlier. Still, the gritty Utes wound up 8-4, just a half-win shy.

USC – OVER 10 wins – LOSS
Admittedly, I took the Lincoln Riley-Caleb Williams last year together hype hook-line-and-sinker. I usually tend to avoid this type of thing. USC finished three wins short of their prop, going 7-5, losing five of their final six games when the schedule finally toughened.

Bowling Green – UNDER 4.5 wins – LOSS
BGSU enjoyed an unexpectedly strong season after losing a ton of experience from the prior year, including multi-season starting QB Matt McDonald.  The Falcons went 7-5 before losing a second straight Quick Lane Bowl game.

Cincinnati – UNDER 5.5 wins – WIN
My forecast called for Cincinnati to drop significantly after losing HC Luke Fickell in the season it was moving to the much tougher Big 12 Conference. This proved to be an easy winner as the Bearcats went 3-9.

Clemson – UNDER 10 wins – WIN
I felt as though a lot of the magic of Clemson football was wearing off, and against a challenging schedule, I found it extremely difficult to find 10 games they would win. Regular season mark was 8-4.

Illinois – UNDER 6.5 wins – WIN
Illini won games in 2022 that I figured might not carry over to 2023, as head coach Bret Bielema’s team benefitted greatly from turnovers and won multiple close games. The 2023 season felt like a “starting over” season in terms of experience. End result, 5-7 record.

Kent State – UNDER 2.5 wins – WIN
Kent State had a stability score of ZERO heading into 2023, and hasn’t been a strong program for a while. That combination led to a 1-11 finish.

LA Monroe – UNDER 3.5 wins – WIN
The Warhawks won four games in ‘22, but six of their eight losses were by double-digit margins. They also had just 10 starters back. Not a good recipe, which led to a 2-10 campaign.

Louisville – UNDER 8 wins – LOSS
Missed this one handily, as everything I projected in the future for head coach Jeff Brohm in his return to his alma mater seemed to come to fruition in his first year. Louisville wound up 10-2 in the regular season.

Mississippi St – UNDER 6.5 wins – WIN
After the passing of former head coach Mike Leach and the rallying around replacement Zach Arnett to close the 2022 season, the 2023 season proved to be too much for Mississippi State against a brutal schedule. The Bulldogs went 5-7.

Old Dominion – UNDER 3.5 wins – LOSS
I missed on this one in almost every angle I tried to justify for an Old Dominion decline in 2023, including how much tougher the action in the Sun Belt would be. ODU went 6-6.

Purdue – UNDER 5.5 wins – WIN
Almost as if former head coach Jeff Brohm knew what he was leaving behind for 2023, an inexperienced Boilermakers’ team struggled in Ryan Walters’ first season to a 4-8 mark.

Stanford – UNDER 3 wins – PUSH
Stanford was starting over last year for head coach Troy Taylor with a stability score of ZERO. Somehow or other, the Cardinal managed to score not one, but two double-digit upset wins en route to a 3-9 finish.

Tennessee – UNDER 9.5 wins – WIN
Prior to the 2023 season, I proclaimed that it would be tough for Tennessee to match its 2022 season as it seemed like this team may have caught lightning in a bottle that year. Some huge wins, an unexpected offensive surge, and several other factors contributed. In 2023, the magic wore off a bit, and head coach Josh Heupel’s team finished 8-4 in the regular season.

Tulsa – UNDER 4.5 wins – WIN
Tulsa’s recruiting had bottomed out prior to head coach Kevin Wilson’s arrival, and he was unable to improve his inexperienced team in his first year with the program after coming over from Ohio State. The Golden Hurricane went 4-8.

UAB – UNDER 5 wins – WIN
Another team that had a ZERO stability score heading into last season was new head coach Trent Dilfer’s UAB program. The Blazers were on a solid run under Bill Clark and Bryant Vincent, but the program switched gears entirely and went with the unproven Dilfer and paid the price with a 4-8 finish.

Virginia Tech – UNDER 5.5 wins – LOSS
Head Coach Brent Pry has brought some energy back to the Virginia Tech football program, and things could get even better in 2024. The Hokies went 4-2 in critical games with +3 to -3 lines last year and finished 6-6.

Now, for my 2024 college football season win total wagers:

10 Teams I project to go OVER their DraftKings season win props:

Auburn – OVER 7.5 wins
Auburn was improved in 2023 in the first season under Hugh Freeze. That team was far less experienced than the one he is bringing back for year two. Does that ensure success in the SEC? Of course not. However, looking back at Freeze’s second season at Liberty, his team went from 8-5 to 10-1, improving by about 8.0 PPG on each side of the ball. I could see improvements on both sides of the ball this year for the Tigers, especially on offense, where QB Payton Thorne will have a full season with Freeze under his belt. In addition, Auburn qualifies for a transitional system, showing there have been 71 teams over the last 11 seasons that have endured losing seasons despite outscoring their opponents. Of those, 31 brought back 13 or more starters, including their quarterback. The collective improvement of this group of teams was about 15.7% SU or approximately two games. That would put this team at eight wins.

Colorado – OVER 5.5 wins
The pressure surrounding Colorado’s football program last year was immense following the hiring of Head Coach Deion Sanders. While much of that hype has settled now to a manageable point, there are some extreme positives that have come out of the change. First off, the last two years on the recruiting/transfer trail have been unlike anything the program has experienced in recent years. There were some big wins to start the season last year as well. Now for 2024, Coach Prime brings back most of his key pieces and will be back in the Big 12 where his program belongs. The Buffaloes will also benefit from a system showing that close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. In fact, of the 32 teams over the last 11 seasons that suffered 5+ close losses of 7 points or less and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only two finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.6 per season. That would put Colorado at 6.6 wins, a modest number if you ask me for a team this explosive offensively.

Florida – OVER 4.5 wins
I mentioned Hugh Freeze and his team’s improvement in the second season with Liberty when describing higher hopes for Auburn this fall. A very similar situation is in play for Billy Napier and Florida in 2024. Only this projection could be even brighter. Napier took Louisiana from 7-7 to 11-3, then 10-1 and 13-1. He did this by recruiting at a higher standard. Well, Florida just landed its most highly rated recruiting class in over a decade, the #7 national ranking, made up of a mix of recruits and transfers. This is exactly the momentum the Gators need to become relevant again in the SEC. The Gators also bring back 14 starters from last year’s 5-7 team, one which lost three times by single-digit margins. There have been 92 teams over the last 11 seasons that have lost one or fewer games by 20 points or more in a given season but still finished with a losing record. Of the 62 that brought back 13 or more starters the next season, only 11 finished worse the next season. The average win improvement of this group was 2.5 per season. Florida qualifies for this angle. I have a hard time believing the Gators will be worse than last year, and if not, they go over the total, despite the tough schedule.

Hawaii – OVER 4.5 wins
Year 3 of the head coach Timmy Chang era at Hawaii has the potential to be his best yet, as he finally has enough players back that have experience in his systems. Quarterback Brayden Schager is probably the key returnee, after he threw for 25 TDs last season. One of the other things I like most about this year’s Rainbow Warriors is that I believe several teams are in unstable situations from the Mountain West for 2024. In fact, there are five teams that have completely flipped coaching staffs and another three that have changed both coordinators. This should be a big advantage for a team that has stayed the course after making a jump last season. I don’t discount seeing Hawaii back in a bowl game this season.

Illinois – OVER 5 wins
Fourth-year coach Bret Bielema brought in Illinois’ best recruiting class since 2019 this spring and continued a five-year trend of continuous improvement in that regard. The program seems to be clearly moving in the right direction despite the season finale loss to Northwestern that kept them from a second straight bowl game. Bielema has his QB back in Luke Altmyer, who led a much-improved offense, and seven starters returning on defense after taking a big step back in 2023. If you recall, that unit allowed just 12.8 PPG in 2022 and there are still some pieces around from that group. The end-of-season schedule is very manageable. If this team can stick around the .500 mark through October, this should prove to be an easy winner.

Nebraska – OVER 7.5 wins
There is some good hype surrounding the Nebraska football program for 2024, and to me, a lot of it seems foundational, not overreacting. Head coach Matt Rhule, in his second year now in Lincoln, brings back 17 starters, although the starting QB might (should) be a different one than a year ago. Freshman Dylan Raiola, a highly touted recruit, figures to get the nod and provides plenty of reason for optimism. The “Blackshirt” defense was stellar last year in allowing just 18.3 PPG and could be even better with all but three starters returning. Rhule’s teams at Temple and Baylor made significant leaps in his second season. Could that same thing happen for Nebraska this fall? Similar to 2022, Nebraska lost a lot of tight games last season. Close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. In fact, of the 32 teams over the last 11 seasons that suffered 5+ close losses of 7 points or less and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only two finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.6 per season.

Oklahoma State – OVER 8 wins
With its foremost rivals in the Big 12, Texas & Oklahoma, now off to the SEC, a very experienced Oklahoma State team could be a nice underdog wager as an option to emerge as the frontrunner this season. Most prognosticators have pegged Utah as the formal favorite, but head coach Mike Gundy’s Cowboys host the Utes in a late September game and have 19 starters back from their 10-win team in 2023. Quarterback Alan Bowman is back at QB but will have to be better than last year, when he had a 15-14 TD-Int ratio. In fact, the overall experience is going to have to make a bigger difference this fall, as OSU only outscored opponents by 1.0 PPG last year in going 10-4. The boost in returning experience compared to last year at this time could prove big, as of the 127 teams over the last 11 years that brought back at least six starters more than the prior season, only 49 got worse. The average improvement of the group that didn’t drop off was a winning percentage bump of 21%, almost 2.5 wins per year.

SMU – OVER 8 wins
I think it’s intriguing that SMU made a supposed huge leap to a Power 5 conference and is still being listed at 8 wins by the folks over at DraftKings. Head coach Rhett Lashlee’s program sure seemed to pick a good time to move, too, as there are 15 starters back from the 11-3 team of 2023, and QB Preston Stone is among them. He comes off a very productive season in which he had a 28-6 TD-INT ratio. This offense has averaged 37+ PPG in five straight seasons. Not many ACC teams can compete with that. That isn’t all, though; with four straight, very strong recruiting classes in tow, it sure looks like SMU will have the talent to be just as competitive in their enhanced surroundings. My projections pegged the Mustangs for 9.1 wins, one of the biggest differences from the win total prop in the country.

STANFORD – OVER 3.5 wins
The timing could prove to be ideal for second-year head coach Troy Taylor and Stanford in their move to the ACC, as the Cardinal bring back a wealth of experience to deal with their changing circumstances. They are also highly disciplined athletes as we know. There are 18 starters back in all from the 3-9 team of a year ago, including QB Ashton Daniels, who showed some promise as a sophomore starter. Taylor’s team will have to be way better defensively, however, to compete in the ACC, as the defenses are much more stingy there than in the Pac-12, and this team’s unit allowed a whopping 37.7 PPG. As a sign of experienced teams being able to wipe the slate clean, only 10 of the last 72 qualifiers that failed to record a blowout win of 20 points or more from the prior year and are bringing back 16+ starters got worse the next season. The average win gain was a whopping 2.6. Teams with a returning starting quarterback, as well as at least nine other offensive starters, have also shown great improvement, about 8% on winning percentage and 1% ATS. Collectively, of these 82 teams, only 26 declined. Stanford only needs to improve by one win to beat the 2024 number.

VIRGINIA TECH – OVER 8 wins
Head coach Brent Pry begins his third season in Blacksburg and might have a team capable of being a surprise contender in the ACC. I wrote a few weeks ago about how Virginia Tech’s recruiting efforts have fallen off a bit in recent years. That doesn’t figure to impact what could be a boom year for the Hokies, as they bring back 21 starters from their 7-6 and Military Bowl-winning team from 2023. Leading the charge is dual-threat quarterback Kyron Drones, who ran for over 800 yards and threw for over 2000 a year ago. Teams with a returning starting quarterback, as well as at least nine other offensive starters, have shown great improvement, about 8% on winning percentage and 1% ATS. Collectively, of these 82 teams, only 26 declined, and the group was 52.6% against the spread over the last 11 seasons. Momentum is big with this program right now after walloping Tulane in the bowl game. Offseason excitement would suggest this team wants much more in ’24.

12 Teams I project to go UNDER their DraftKings season win props:

BUFFALO – UNDER 5.5 wins
Former Buffalo head coach Maurice Linguist proved to be a better recruiter than on-field leader while there, and now that he and his staff have been replaced, it’s up to newly hired Pete Lembo to turn the tide coming off a 3-9 campaign. Only 10 starters will be back to implement the new systems, and the first FBS game of the season will be an extremely difficult one at Missouri. I would be remiss if I didn’t tell you that I expect the Bulls to get very little momentum from that game. Lembo is the only new head coach in the MAC this year, so it isn’t a great time to be coming into the season with a low stability score. The DK win prop suggests the Bulls are a mid-level MAC team. I just can’t see it that way. I don’t think this team starts improving much until a year or two down the road.

Duke – UNDER 5.5 wins
Duke suffered a big loss when head coach Mike Elko opted to go back to College Station and take over the Texas A&M program. His teams were fantastic overachievers at Duke. His replacement for the Blue Devils is Manny Diaz, whose talented teams at Miami were best known for not living up to the billing. It should be an interesting season or two in Durham, as Diaz takes over a team that won 17 games over the last two years but now brings back only 10 starters. Diaz did bring in talented QB Maalik Murphy out of the transfer portal from Texas to fill the void left by Riley Leonard’s move to Notre Dame. The big drop-off in returning experience compared to last year could have a very negative effect, though. Over the last 10 years, 118 teams have had at least six fewer returning starters than the prior season, and only 30 of them have improved that season. The average drop off of those that didn’t improve was a winning percentage decline of 19% (over two games). This team’s ACC schedule is very difficult. In my opinion, they will have to be perfect in non-league action to even have a chance at beating 5.5 wins.

Georgia State – UNDER 4.5 wins
When former head coach Shawn Elliott opted for an assistant job at South Carolina, Georgia State was left searching for answers. They hope they found the answer in Dell McGee, who was instrumental as an offensive assistant for Georgis in their recent title runs. McGee will bring new coordinators and systems with him and just 10 starters return for the Panthers in 2024, so it will be an unstable situation, at least early. This program has won bowl games in two of the last three seasons, so I wouldn’t expect a total drop-off. However, there will be some decline. There have been 67 teams over the last 11 seasons that have enjoyed winning seasons despite being outscored by their opponents. Of those, 13 of them brought back 13 or fewer starters and turned to a new starting quarterback. Only one team improved (by one win). In addition, there have been 63 teams over the last 11 seasons that started a new quarterback after a season in which they finished with a winning record despite suffering three or more losses of 20 points or more. Only six of those 63 teams finished with a better record the next season, with the average drop being 14.3% or 2.4 wins per season. Those are some pretty definitive transition systems suggesting McGee’s job in 2024 might be a bigger challenge than it looks.

Louisiana Monroe – UNDER 2.5 wins
I typically don’t like to bet teams to win so few games in back-to-back seasons, as I believe a natural progression comes into play when a slate gets cleaned from season to season. That said, before 2022 when stability scores of zero used to be non-existent, that score is a common occurrence nowadays and, in my opinion, must be faded for the worst of teams qualifying. ULM fits that bill. I can assure you that teams in this state never do as well as the prior season and usually struggle to win games or cover point spreads. The Warhawks bring back just seven starters from a 2-10 team for new Head Coach Bryant Vincent, who got his feet wet with UAB in the 2022 season. His talent at UAB was a lot better then than it is now. Expect struggles. I have this team favored in one game over an FCS foe, a 5.5-point dog in another, and then nothing less than a double-digit dog in any other outing. It’s a stretch to make it to three winnable games.

Maryland – UNDER 6.5 wins
It was a long climb upward for Maryland in the six years under Mike Locksley, and unfortunately, on paper, it looks like the 2023 season may have been the top of the mountain. The Terps went 8-5 last season and put up an impressive effort in a 31-13 thrashing of Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Unfortunately, a lot of the contributing talent from that team has now departed, including multi-talented QB Taulia Tagovailoa. He has been the face of this program in recent years. Making mattes worse, the Big Ten expansion has made the conference all the more tougher, and almost unbelievably, Maryland scored its worst recruiting class in at least 15 years following what was back-to-back 8-5 seasons. This was no time to slip up and lose this much momentum. I see six wins tops on the slate, barring a highly unexpected upset.

Michigan – UNDER 9 wins
Yes, I know. My recent power ratings projections predicted Michigan to win 9.3 games against a 9.0-win prop. So why am I picking the national champs to go UNDER their total? Quite frankly, I’ve never seen a defending title holder go into the next season with a stability score of ZERO. There are just seven starters who are back from the 15-0 team, and they’ll have a new quarterback under center to replace first-round NFL pick JJ McCarthy. There’s still plenty of talent in place, but instability is instability, and it can prove a challenge for ANY team. Of note, the Wolverines open the season at home against three very stable programs for 2024 and will be stability system fade plays in all three, including Week 2 versus a loaded Texas team. Michigan will also be up against numerous transitional systems indicating that they will be much worse off in 2024. Among them, there have been 14 teams that have recorded 7+ blowout wins of 20 points or more one season, then had to change coaches for one reason or another. Only ONE of the 14 teams got better the next season, and collectively, they dropped by an average of 19%, or 2.7 wins per season. Another potential landmine system has affected teams coming off a season in which they enjoyed a positive 1.0 or better turnover differential but are now starting fresh at quarterback. The 33 most recent teams that have fit this bill have dropped by 2.7 wins per season in the next campaign. The Wolverines won’t roll over but I have a hard time seeing them beating Texas, Oregon, nor Ohio State, That’s 9-3 without any other potential slip ups considered.

Navy – UNDER 5.5 wins
How hard is it going to be for a new coach to flip the offense of a program that has been running the triple option for all of recent memory, at least mine, anyway? Brian Newberry and his staff might have the biggest job of any coaches across the country this year. To make matters worse, the talent isn’t there to get it done now. For anyone wondering why Navy’s football program has fallen on hard times, look no further than recruiting. Prior to 2019, the eight-year recruiting average was around 103rd nationally, and the Navy staff always did well in developing those players. In the last five years, the average has been over 123rd. This ranking is EASILY the worst in the American Athletic Conference and makes the job for Newberry daunting. My numbers peg the Midshipmen for 4.9 wins. Even that seems a little too optimistic.

New Mexico State – UNDER 4.5 wins
You have to wonder what goes on behind the scenes when a coach just decides to hang it up out of the blue following two very successful seasons. On the surface, former New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill apparently saw what was coming down the pike in Las Cruces and bailed just in time. The Aggies face a season in which their stability score going in is just 1. That means they have just enough starters returning to avoid the dreaded ZERO score. Not much more than that, however. Besides Kill and staff leaving, the biggest loss is QB Diego Pavia, who was good enough to land a Power 5 gig in the transfer portal. Don’t be surprised if this team hits a wall this year. They fall into a dangerous transitional system when teams are off of seasons in which they won 66.7% or more of their games against the spread and have six or fewer offensive starters returning, plus they are breaking in a new quarterback. The 33 teams that have fit that bill over the last 11 seasons have dropped by an average of 18.4% outright, 19.6% ATS, and 5.8 PPG offensively. The five teams that added a new head coach plummeted by 5.8 wins per season! The new head coach is Tony Sanchez, who struggled to a 20-40 record in five years at UNLV. Quite realistically, this team would be a great bet to undergo the worst decline from 2023 to 2024.

Northwestern – UNDER 5 wins
Without a doubt, I make finding teams that I believe got “luckiest” the prior season to undergo big declines in the follow-up campaign. I’m not sure anyone can claim this title for 2023 more than Northwestern. The Wildcats won a lot of close games, enjoyed a massive turnover advantage and were outscored by opponents in compiling an 8-5 record. Well, of course, I have transitional systems to back all three of those situations, each indicating the Wildcats are bound for a 2.5-3 win drop in 2024. That’s not all, though, in terms of why they could be up against it this fall. With Northwestern’s high education standards, it’s never as easy to recruit there as it is at some other Big Ten schools. Former head coach Pat Fitzgerald typically fared well at getting the most out of player development. With David Braun in charge of a recruiting trend moving steadily downward, the 2024 season becomes a major challenge. Making matters worse, the Big Ten has expanded and improved greatly, AND Northwestern will be playing in a transitional season in a temporary stadium that will seat just 15,000 spectators. I expect a strange and forgettable year in Evanston.

San Diego State – UNDER 5.5 wins
I just wrote about a Northwestern team who eagerly awaits the completion of its new stadium so that it can begin its “future”. Well, the future is now for San Diego State, which unfortunately brings one of its least stable teams ever heading into a season of what was supposed to be a celebration year introducing Snap Dragon Stadium. The Aztecs have a stability score of just 2 for ’24 in the first season under new Head Coach Sean Lewis. Only 10 starters will be back from last fall’s 4-8 team. Lewis has commanded potent offenses at Colorado and Kent State in recent years, but it could take some time for it to materialize at SDSU, where they haven’t reached 30 PPG since 2017 despite winning double-digit games three times in that span.

San Jose State – UNDER 5 wins
Recruiting efforts have dropped off severely at San Jose State, and now the Spartans have started anew under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, with just seven starters back. It wouldn’t be outlandish to see things go south for the Spartans in 2024. There won’t be a triple option run here so no fear in that regard. However, the Spartans have an interesting transitional system regarding a changeover at QB. There have been 63 teams over the last 11 seasons that started a new quarterback after a season in which they finished with a winning record despite suffering three or more losses of 20 points or more. Only six of those 63 teams finished with a better record the next season, with the average drop being 14.3% or 2.4 wins per season. Former head coach Brent Brennan did what could be characterized as a good job while with SJSU, not great. You can’t blame him for taking the leap upward to Arizona with such a modest resume. I don’t think the team he left behind finds a bowl bid at the end of the season.

Troy – UNDER 7 wins
While I acknowledged that the multiple situations for teams with Stability Scores of ZERO were vastly different this year, for Troy, the 2024 season figures to be a complete reboot. New head coach Gerad Parker comes over from Notre Dame, where he was an OC/TE assistant. Only four starters are back from the Trojans’ 11-3 team of a year ago, two on each side of the ball. After winning five games in each season from ’19-21, Troy recorded 23 victories over the last two years. It’s a safe assumption to speculate that winning five games with this massively unstable situation would be a great achievement. I’ve shared this transitional system for a couple of other teams already, but as a reminder, over the last 10 years, 118 teams have had at least six fewer returning starters than the prior season, and only 30 of them have improved that season. The average drop off of those that didn’t improve was a winning percentage decline of 19% (almost 3.0 games) and ATS drop of about 6.0%. In my opinion, Parker might be in over his head here early, and despite Troy’s recent successes, I expect a big drop off.

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