Week 6 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 6 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 6 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those. I had a few winners there that weren’t in this column last week.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts

 

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2024 Record: 19-15 (+6.13 units)

Rutgers at Nebraska – 4:00 pm ET

Nebraska has a rest advantage coming into this game, as the Cornhuskers are coming off their bye week. They also happen to be playing at home, and Memorial Stadium will surely be rocking here. However, it is a little hard to get on board with Nebraska winning this game by a touchdown or more.

Rutgers has a really good shot at controlling the line of scrimmage in this game, and doing that should give the Scarlet Knights a good chance of keeping this close. Rutgers is 30th in the nation in EPA per play this season, and the running game has been superb this year. Kyle Monangai has rushed for 589 yards and six touchdowns already, and it helps that he’s running behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines. Matt Rhule might have time to try and get his team ready for this one, but will the Nebraska defensive line be able to prevent to prevent Rutgers from getting consistent push up front? I don’t think so. Athan Kaliakmanis has also been playing some solid football under center. He’s not setting the world on fire by any means, but he’s making the right reads and moving the chains. His poise should be huge in a crazy road environment.

Rutgers is also 25th in the country in Dropback EPA per play allowed, so this defense should be up for the challenge against Dylan Raiola. All in all, I’m buying what Greg Schiano is selling. Rutgers is 6-0 against the spread when coming a home win since the start of last season. The team is also 10-5-2 ATS as a road underdog under Schiano.

Bet: Rutgers +7 (-110)

RELATED: Here’s an updated look at the Heisman Trophy betting markets!

UCF at Florida – 7:45 pm ET

This has the potential to turn into a serious shootout. The Over is 3-0-1 in UCF’s four games this season. It’s also 3-1 in the four games Florida has played. So, these teams have already been involved in high-scoring games, and we’ll now see these soft defenses on the same field.

Last week, UCF got absolutely torched by Colorado, giving up 48 points in a stunning loss. The Knights have now allowed 41.0 points per game over the last two weeks. That is a problem heading into a meeting with a Gators team that can really score points. Florida is also coming off a bye week, so this offense will be prepared for this one. Don’t be surprised if the Gators get the ground game going here. They rushed for 226 yards in their meeting with Mississippi State before the bye, and I don’t see UCF’s defensive front holding up much better. The Gators can also make explosive plays in the passing game.

I also don’t see Florida’s defense coming out of this thing unscathed. The Gators are just 91st in the nation in EPA per play allowed this year, and that’s unacceptable for an SEC program with this type of talent. And while Florida is coming off a bye week, I’m not sure this defense is fixable. UCF also happens to have a highly talented dual-threat quarterback in K.J. Jefferson, and the rest of the team is loaded with speed. So, I see the Knights doing quite a bit to help Over bettors here. UCF is actually favored in this game. So, while I’m high on Florida’s scoring potential in this game, the road team is expected to be the better group.

Bet: Over 61.5 (-110)

Miami at California – 10:30 pm ET

Last week, Virginia Tech ran extremely well against Miami. That’s what California’s mediocre offense will need to do in this game. The Golden Bears will pound the rock with Jaydn Ott, who is one of the best running backs in the nation. Ott should be feeling pretty good heading into this game. He has been banged up throughout this season, but he should be as healthy as he has been all year with Cal coming off the bye week. And if Ott is running well, that would make life easier on quarterback Fernando Mendoza. This passing game is far from explosive, but Mendoza is one of the sturdiest quarterbacks that Cal has had in a while. And he’s fully capable of executing the game plan against a suddenly vulnerable Miami defense. Cal’s offense is really the only thing I’m concerned about in this game. So, if the team can figure that out, this is going to be close late.

The Golden Bears are 12th in the nation in scoring defense this season, and head coach Justin Wilcox is one of the better defensive minds in college football. He’s going to have his team fired up and ready to go, especially with this being College GameDay’s first trip to Berkeley. Look for Cal to consistently send pressure at Miami quarterback Cam Ward. Last week, the Hokies were able to make him uncomfortable and force him to make some mistakes. And this Golden Bears defense is more talented and better coached.

Honestly, it’s just hard to be all that impressed with Miami after last week’s game, and this feels like the biggest game that Cal has played in a very long time. The Golden Bears are going to want it more, and this is a spot in which the Hurricanes can easily be tripped up — especially with how late this game is.

It should also be noted that VSiN analytics guru Steve Makinen has an estimated score of Miami 29.2 – California 24 in this game. That’s pretty close for a line that is touching double digits. With all of that in mind, I’m going big on Cal to cover the spread and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.

Bet: Cal +10.5 (-105 – 2 units) & Cal ML (+330 – 0.5 units)

Last Week

Rutgers ML vs. Washington (-132)
Kansas State -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State (-110)
Texas -38.5 vs. Mississippi State (-110)
Navy vs. UAB Over 57.5 (-108)
Louisville +7.5 vs. Notre Dame (-152)
Utah -11.5 vs. Arizona (-105)
TEASER: Indiana PK vs. Maryland + Boise State PK vs. Washington State (-120 – 1.5 units)

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