Each week, I’ll be diving into the Heisman Trophy odds to try and help you find some in-season opportunities to get involved in this market. I’ll do that by highlighting some of the players that are trending up or down, and I’ll also look at some big games ahead on the schedule. Last week, Miami quarterback Cam Ward threw for 319 yards with four touchdowns and no picks in a win over Louisville. That performance was enough for Ward to leap above Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel on the oddsboard, but it wasn’t enough for him to jump Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty. But we should see more movement with this being a huge week for all three of them. With all of that in mind, keep reading for my Week 9 Heisman Trophy betting market update.
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(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
Heisman Trophy Odds
These are the Heisman Trophy odds going into Week 9:
- Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (+220)
- Cam Ward, Miami (+260)
- Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (+400)
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson (16-1)
- Travis Hunter, Colorado (22-1)
- Carson Beck, Georgia (25-1)
- Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (30-1)
- Kurtis Rourke, Indiana (35-1)
- Jalen Milroe, Alabama (35-1)
- Drew Allar, Penn State (35-1)
For the entire list of Heisman Trophy odds, go to DraftKings Sportsbook!
Trending Up: Last week, DraftKings Sportsbook had Ward at +550 to win the Heisman. But after a borderline flawless performance in a road win over Louisville, Ward is now sitting there at +260. Realistically, that was the toughest remaining game on the Hurricanes’ schedule. Outside of something wacky happening in a rivalry game against Florida State this week, the biggest challenges awaiting Miami are road games against Georgia Tech and Syracuse. That said, the Canes really should finish this season undefeated. And Ward definitely has a Heisman-worthy resume. He leads the nation in passing yards (2,538) and passing touchdowns (24), and he’s also second among starters in Passer Rating (183.5). PFF also happens to have Ward third amongst all quarterbacks with his 92.6 grade, but he’s behind Army quarterback Bryson Daily and Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. That means that Ward is the highest-graded quarterback that isn’t playing in an option offense. All in all, it’s getting harder and harder to poke holes in his case. That’s not to say that I’d add a play on him at his current odds, but you should definitely feel pretty good if you’re holding a ticket right now.
The other big mover from Week 8 to Week 9 was Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who helped his team earn a 56-7 win over Nebraska last week. The Hoosiers are now 7-0 and looking very much alive in the Big Ten picture. Rourke has thrown for 1,941 yards with 15 touchdowns and only three picks this year, and he’s actually PFF’s highest graded passer (91.7) this season. Rourke definitely deserves a ton of praise for what he has done for this team, especially considering the low expectations for him and this group heading into the season. But he’s probably not somebody that will actually factor into this race. Rourke is actually out for Indiana in a big game against Washington this weekend, and that means one less opportunity to make a statement on a big stage. Rourke also has a road game against Ohio State on the schedule, so it’s pretty unlikely the Hoosiers will remain undefeated.
Trending Down: Georgia went on the road and won a huge game against Texas last week, which probably sounds like something that should help Beck’s Heisman case. Unfortunately, the senior played about as poorly as you can possibly play in a victory. Beck completed just 23 of his 41 passes for 175 yards, and he also had no touchdown passes and a miserable three interceptions. Running back Trevor Etienne and the Georgia defense did the heavy lifting, and it’s just becoming difficult to see a path towards Beck winning this award now.
Hunter also dropped a bit from last week to this week. He was actually getting some real Heisman buzz heading into Week 9, and his odds were down at +900 before Colorado took on Arizona. And while the Buffaloes earned a 34-7 road win in that game, Hunter’s Heisman hopes might have gone out the window. The wide receiver/cornerback re-injured his shoulder in the first half of that game, and he ended up sitting out the second. It’s not clear how long this injury will keep him out, but he’ll need to get back on the field fast in order to keep pace with Jeanty, Ward and Gabriel. Also, Colorado desperately needs him back soon in order to prevent picking up its third loss of the season.
Milroe really hurt his chances in Week 8. Last week, the talented dual-threat quarterback was listed at 10-1 and had a road game against Tennessee to prove that he should still be one of the favorites. But Milroe really struggled in the game, completing 25 of his 45 passes for 239 yards with one touchdown and two picks. He was a big part of the reason that the Tide lost the game, and there’s very little margin for error moving forward. I’m hesitant to say that Milroe is completely out of it, as he had a big game against Georgia in the most meaningful game of the college football season. He’s also a Heisman moment waiting to happen. But Milroe needs to put up big numbers in every game the Tide play the rest of the way, and Alabama needs to go 5-0. That’s easier said than done given what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, and the team does face Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn.
Week 9’s Biggest Games
Boise State at UNLV – 10:30 pm ET (Friday)
As a running back, Jeanty doesn’t have as much wiggle room as some of the other contenders in this race. And that’s especially true with him being a Group of Five running back. That said, Boise State likely needs to win out in order for him to actually win. Well, this is probably the last game that the Broncos will play in which they won’t be laying at least a touchdown. And UNLV is 20th in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.072). So, make sure you tune into this one on Friday night. If Jeanty lights up a good Rebels running defense, this is suddenly going to seem more realistic than ever.
Illinois at Oregon – 3:30 pm ET
Gabriel followed up his masterful performance against Ohio State with an average one against Purdue. While Oregon won the game 35-0, Gabriel did throw a pick and he just didn’t put up the type of numbers you would have expected in a blowout win over a team with a bad defense. But Gabriel will be right back on the national radar this week, as Oregon will be hosting 6-1 Illinois. This is a ranked matchup and the Illini are 25th in college football in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.067). So, this is another game that will carry a lot of weight for voters.
Missouri at Alabama – 3:30 pm ET
Milroe has a lot of work to do if he wants to find a way back into this conversation. Luckily for him, Alabama hosts a ranked team this week. If Milroe can find a way to turn things on and lead his team to a win over Missouri, perhaps he can pick up a bit of momentum heading into next week’s road date with LSU. It will take a lot and simply winning won’t be enough. Milroe has to be a huge part of that, and he needs to make some big-time plays. But it’s hard to completely count him out after what we saw from Alabama in the first half of the Georgia game last month.
LSU at Texas A&M – 7:30 pm ET
It doesn’t seem like anybody is really talking about Nussmeier as a Heisman candidate, but it’s probably time that changes. LSU lost to USC in Las Vegas in Week 1, but the team easily could have won that game. And the team has rattled off six wins in a row since then. One of those was a win over a good Ole Miss team, and last week’s road blowout of Arkansas was rather impressive. This Tigers team is suddenly scorching hot, and Nussmeier has a big opportunity in Week 9. Texas A&M looks like a top-10 team in the nation, and the Aggies are 17th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.084). Kyle Field is also one of the hardest stadiums to play in. So, if Nussmeier can lead LSU to a win here, it might be time for him to join the list of actual contenders.
Separately, how about a little love for Nussmeier as the top quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft? I haven’t seen many people talking about him in that light, but he is very accurate, attacks every part of the field and has better anticipation than any quarterback I have watched this year.
Players To Watch
Avery Johnson, Kansas State (90-1): Johnson probably isn’t going to be invited to New York or anything, but it’s really crazy to look at his numbers this season. Last week, Johnson threw for 298 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a road win over West Virginia. He’s now up to 1,401 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and only five interceptions. Johnson is also one of the best running quarterbacks in the country, as he has rushed for 306 yards and three touchdowns. If Kansas State didn’t completely fall apart against BYU on September 21st, would we be talking about Johnson as a real Heisman contender? And if we can overlook losses for other players, why can’t we overlook that one? Kansas State is now 6-1 on the season. The Wildcats also happen to have impressive road wins over Tulane, Colorado and West Virginia. There’s also a home win over Oklahoma State, and Kansas State will also play Arizona State and Iowa State in the final five games of the year. This Wildcats team has the potential to win the Big 12, and Johnson’s numbers are pretty comparable to some of the other top quarterbacks in the nation.