For many bettors, going contrarian is a way of life. It’s a founding principle and essential to how they view and interpret the betting market. If the public is hammering one side, they want to be on the other. Zig when the masses zag. Fade the drunk guys at the bar. Lean on underdogs and Unders. Avoid the teams getting 75% of bets or more. Why? Because more often than not, the public loses. If betting were easy, average Joes would all quit their day jobs and become millionaires. By going contrarian, you are capitalizing on public bias and playing the long game.
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With this philosophy in mind, there are certain times during the year when contrarian value skyrockets: March Madness, Super Bowl and Bowl Games. These are the most heavily bet events of the year, involving the largest overall share of public bettors. As a result, they offer the most public bias to go against.
In order to go contrarian this Bowl Game season, focus on the data.
Visit the VSiN Betting Splits page, which offers betting percentages from DraftKings for every Bowl Game. Click on the "CFB" tab. Focus on the "Spread" column first. The "Bets" column represents the percentage of total bets or tickets the team is receiving. "Bets" tells you where the public is. If a team is getting 65% or more bets, that means they are a popular public play. You would look to avoid these teams and instead take the side getting 35%.
The "Handle" column is right next to the "Bets" column. The "Handle" column represents the percentages of money the team is receiving. Look for teams receiving low bets but higher dollars, which is an indicator that the larger, sharper wagers are in their favor. A good benchmark is 10%. If a team is receiving at least 10% more money than bets, that’s further evidence of wiseguy action in their favor. For example, a team getting 35% of bets and 50% of dollars would be a sharp contrarian bet split to target.
You can also go contrarian for Over/Unders. Focus on the "total" column. The top number represents the Over, and the bottom number represents the Under. The public tends to bet Overs because it’s more fun to root for points and touchdowns. If an Over is receiving 65% of bets or more, that would be a public Over you would look to go against and take the Under. If an Under is getting 40% of bets but 54% of the money, that would be a sharp contrarian bet split to target.
