We’re changing things up this week. While I normally use this real estate to digest a spicy CFB topic, there are too many games warranting attention.
So, we’re changing things up.
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This week is all about the marquee bowls and an extended look at the College Football Playoff games that are (finally) less than a week away. There will be time to explore CFB gambling themes in the coming weeks as the season winds down.
Now, however, we must explore the most important topics at hand. Let’s begin.
The Appetizer: Eight Non-Playoff Bowl Games I Can’t Wait to Watch
1. No. 6 Ohio State (-6.5, 66.5) vs. No. 11 Utah
Who will play? That’s the biggest question I have as it pertains to Ohio State. Specifically, will wideouts Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave suit up one last time or opt out instead? Given how important they are to this offense, this intel seems critical. Utah was dominant in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and the Utes will look to attack the Buckeyes just like Michigan did. Also, given the way the year ended, will the Buckeyes want to be there?
2. Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Notre Dame (-1.5, -45.5) vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
The Irish have a new coach. The Pokes have a new defensive coordinator. And two really solid teams, led by defenses that finished top 10 nationally in scoring, will likely be on display. That said, I could see both offenses finding some success here. And while I respect what both defenses have done throughout, 45.5 just feels a little low for me. There will be (at least some) points.
3. Sugar Bowl: No. 8 Ole Miss (-1, 55) vs. No. 7 Baylor
Matt Corral is playing. At least that is where things sit right now, which is an enormous boost for Ole Miss. Also, given how many hits he took throughout the back half of the season, Corral should be as healthy as he’s been in some time for the Rebels. Baylor, of course, will counter with a defense that finished in the top 15. Although I’m still not certain they’ve seen an offense and a player quite like this. (Assuming he indeed suits up.)
4. Outback Bowl: Penn State (-1, 47.5) vs. No. 21 Arkansas
I feel like I’m far more excited about this game than most, and I am perfectly fine with that. Both these teams are better than their records indicate, and both have played difficult schedules in different conferences. Arkansas, however, just feels like a more seasoned, explosive team. Hogs win.
5. Cheez-It Bowl: No. 19 Clemson (-1, 44) vs. Iowa State
Are you into games with totals in the mid-40s? I hope so, because this fits that profile and we’re not done yet. Breece Hall won’t play for Iowa State, which is an enormous loss. Clemson, meanwhile, really seemed to be hitting stride at the end of the year. The departure of both coordinators is a big deal for the Tigers, although I still lean toward Dabo Swinney.
6. Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 16 Oklahoma (-4.5, 60.5) vs. No. 14 Oregon
On the topic of coaching losses, enter the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma and Oregon both are breaking in new coaches, which makes this game a tough one to figure. Also, Bob Stoops will be back on the sideline! The story here, however, is Caleb Williams. The true freshman QB has been explosive at times this year, although his future is still up in the air following Lincoln Riley’s departure. He should play—and he also seems likely to stay longer—although his importance on this game and program cannot be overstated.
7. Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 10 Michigan State (-2.5, 56.5) vs. No. 12 Pittsburgh
Opt outs are the story here, without question. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett won’t play. Neither will Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III. Both were the heart and soul of their football teams, which makes this a tough game to bet. The line has swung about six points since Pickett’s decision became assumed, and that feels about right. Too many variables for me to feel good about this one. (Fine, I like the under.)
8. Citrus Bowl: No. 22 Kentucky (-3, 44) vs. No. 15 Iowa
Look, this game might be ugly. I won’t lie to you. Iowa’s offense closed the season with the thud, and running back Tyler Goodson, Iowa’s most explosive player, left for the NFL. With that said, Iowa’s defense is still strong. And while a total of 44 points feels, well, low, it also feels about right. The under is lookin’ lively. Get excited.
The Buffet: Breaking Down the CFB Playoffs
Cotton Bowl: No. 1 Alabama (-13.5, 58) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
It’s hard to muster up a comparison to the performances Alabama delivered in back-to-back weeks to end the regular season. The Crimson Tide needed four overtimes to beat Auburn as a 20.5-point favorite, looking inept on offense and completely overwhelmed across the offensive line.
In the SEC Championship Game, however, Nick Saban’s team delivered a pristine, balanced performance against Georgia. QB Bryce Young won the Heisman by torching a defense we didn’t think could be torched. And the defense, which has been up and down, had many questioning whether Stetson Bennett is the right guy at QB for the Bulldogs. (That includes me. More on that in a minute.)
Cincinnati knows this Jekyll & Hyde routine. The Bearcats had a four-game stretch during the meat of the season that was largely unimpressive. During that time, Cincinnati struggled against Navy, Tulane, Tulsa and South Florida.
In the three games to close out the season, the Bearcats bounced back with wins (and covers) against SMU, East Carolina and Houston. It wasn’t always dominant, but it was certainly much improved from what we saw previously.
While Cincinnati has taken on the role of the “little guy” as a result of playing in a Group of Five conference (for now), there are more than a handful of starters that fit the Alabama mold. I’m specifically excited to see their cornerbacks, Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and Coby Bryant, matchup against Alabama’s receivers. Both have NFL futures.
On that note, the loss of John Metchie III to a season-ending injury in the SEC Championship Game is a major blow to Alabama. We know Jameson Williams is a special wideout–and he was against Georgia. But this loss is one of the bigger storylines entering this game.
Cincinnati has some “dudes” outside of the corners. QB Desmond Ridder has been largely excellent, and I love how Jerome Ford runs at running back. But I worry about the depth and just what counter Cincinnati can offer if Bryce Young plays like himself and the Alabama offensive line holds up once again.
The Bearcats are a heck of a story, and this is a lot of points. They have plenty of NFL players on the roster. But the difference in talent across the depth chart simply might be too much to overcome.
Orange Bowl: No. 3 Georgia (-7.5, 45) vs. No. 2 Michigan
Let’s begin with the greatest variable in any sporting event or bowl game at the moment: COVID protocols.
The buzz out of Athens is that Georgia has been dealing with COVID issues. How widespread these issues are remains to be seen, although we do know that backup QB JT Daniels was dealing with the virus. His availability (or lack of) is a big deal.
It was also reported that star wideout George Pickens, who missed most of the season due to injury, had also tested positive. There have been conflicting reports on this, however, and trying to get information on the team as it related to COVID will be an enormous challenge up until the two teams take the field.
(This is a theme for all games moving forward.)
Outside of that, I am curious how Georgia responds to being punched in the mouth for the first time all year. The Bulldogs’ defense was on a historic pace before playing in the SEC Championship Game.
In fact, before that game they had not allowed more than 17 points in a single game. Against Alabama, Georgia allowed 41 points. Oof.
I expect the Bulldogs’ defense to respond. I do wonder how Stetson Bennett will play at QB after such a lackluster performance last time out. Georgia closed as a 6.5-point favorite against Alabama, and one could trace the origins of the meltdown back to Bennett’s turnovers and inability to sustain long drives. Granted, the defense wasn’t great. But Bennett looked shook.
In terms of momentum, Michigan has almost all of it. After beating Ohio State as a 6.5-point underdog, the Wolverines crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game to easily cover the 12.5-point spread.
And while Georgia’s defense might be the better overall unit, Michigan has the best football player in this game. Aidan Hutchinson is poised to be one of the first players selected in the upcoming draft, and he will certainly be a factor.
The question, at least for me, is on offense. Can Michigan generate enough big plays? Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has done a brilliant job getting all of the pieces to mesh together nicely, headlined by the development of quarterback Cade McNamara.
This will be the toughest challenge yet, although watching this superb group of running backs try to run through Georgia will be a wonderful thing to watch.
I’ve said it throughout the year, but I’m already sitting on plenty of Georgia futures tickets. That said, this feels like a game that could really be tight until the very end. Points are awfully tempting.
