Tonight we have a loaded slate of Friday Night Lights action on tap with four College Football games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7 p.m. ET: Florida State at Duke (-3, 42.5)

Florida State (1-5) has lost two straight games and just fell to Clemson 29-13 but managed to cover as 16.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Duke (5-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Georgia Tech 24-14 and pushing as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with Duke listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and 66% of spread bets are laying the points with Duke, who enjoys home field advantage and has the far better won loss record. This lopsided support initially pushed Duke up from -3 to -3.5 early in the week. However, since that time we’ve seen sharp buyback on Florida State (specifically getting the hook), dropping the line back down to the key number of 3. Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze on the Seminoles, as the line has remained virtually stagnant despite heavy public support on Duke. Florida State is only receiving 34% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN2. Short road dogs +4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. Friday road dogs are 13-3 ATS (81%) this season. The Seminoles also have value a a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.

10:15 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at BYU (-9.5, 52)

Oklahoma State (3-3) opened the season 3-0 but has since lost three straight and just got crushed by West Virginia 38-14, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, BYU (6-0, ranked 13th) remains undefeated and just brushed aside Arizona 41-19, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with BYU listed as a 9-point home favorite. The public sees an easy double-digit win by BYU and 75% of spread bets are laying the points with the Cougars. This lopsided support drove BYU up from -9 to -10 earlier in the week. That’s when we saw some sharp buyback on Oklahoma State at an inflated price, dropping the line back down from BYU -10 to -9.5. Essentially, late sharp movement is coming back toward Oklahoma State and the points (ideally at the key number of +10). Oklahoma State is only receiving 25% of spread bets, making the Cowboys the top contrarian play of the night in a nationally televised showdown on ESPN. The Cowboys have buy-low value as an unranked road dog off a blowout loss against a sell-high ranked favorite off a win and cover. Oklahoma State enjoys a rest advantage, as they were off last week while BYU played on Saturday. The Cowboys are a “dog who can score” system match (30.2 PPG), thereby keeping pace or back door covering. We’ve also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 55.5 to 52. This dip provides additional correlative betting value on Oklahoma State as they are a near double-digit dog in a low total game, making it harder for the bigger favorite to cover.

10:30 p.m. ET: Fresno State (-3, 49) at Nevada

Fresno State (3-3) has dropped two straight games and just fell to Washington State 25-17, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Conversely, Nevada (3-4) has won two of their last three games and just took down Oregon State 42-37, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Fresno State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward Fresno State in a bounce back spot. However, despite receiving 63% of spread bets we’ve seen Fresno State remain stagnant at -3. Several books are juicing up Nevada +3 (-115) and others are even falling down to 2.5. Reading between the lines, it appears as though all liability is on Nevada plus the points at home. The Wolfpack are only receiving 37% of spread bets but 50% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a heavily bet late-night game on CBSSN. Nevada has value as a conference-dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Wolfpack are a “dog who can score” system match (27.3 PPG), thereby keeping pace or back door covering. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 49. This movement is especially notable because the public is hammering the over (84% of bets), yet the total fell.

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