Tonight we have a triple-header of Friday Night Lights sweats across the College Football gridiron. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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6:30 p.m. ET: Louisville (-7.5, 53) at Boston College

Louisville (4-3) has dropped three of their last four games and just came up short against Miami 52-45, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Boston College (4-3) has lost two straight games and just got rolled by Virginia Tech 42-21, failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Louisville listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. We’ve seen Louisville move up from -6.5 to -7.5, with 54% of spread bets laying the road chalk. However, we’re starting to see signs of inflated buyback on Boston College as several shops are juicing up Eagles +7.5 (-115), signaling a possible game-day fall back down to +7. Boston College is receiving 46% of spread bets but 63% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Boston College has value as a conference dog, with the built in the familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Eagles also have correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a relatively low total game (53), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. The Eagles enjoy a two-day rest advantage, having last played on Thursday of last week while Louisville played on Saturday. Boston College is 3-0 at home while Louisville is 1-1 on the road. In terms of the total, the public is pounding the over to the tune of 80% of bets. However, despite this lopsided action the line has remained unchanged at 53, indicating a sharp line freeze on the under.

9:30 p.m. ET: Boise State (-3.5, 63) at UNLV

Boise State (5-1, ranked 17th) has won four straight games and just brushed aside Hawaii 28-7 but failed to cover as 21.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, UNLV (6-1) have won two straight games and just held off Oregon State 33-25, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Boise State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 83% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Boise State. This heavily lopsided betting drove the Broncos up from -3 to -3.5. However, we are now seeing some sharp buyback on UNLV plus the hook as several shops are juicing up the Rebels +3.5 (-115). UNLV is the top contrarian play of the night as they are only receiving 17% of spread bets in a primetime game. UNLV has buy-low value as a unranked home conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Rebels are also a “dog who can score system match” (43.6 PPG), thereby keeping pace or back-door covering. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from as high as 66.5 down to 63. This movement is especially notable because 75% of bets are taking the over, yet it fell.

10 p.m. ET: Rutgers at USC (-14, 56.5)

Rutgers (4-3) has lost three straight games and just came up short against UCLA 35-32, losing outright as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, USC (3-4) has also lost three straight games and just fell to Maryland 29-28, losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a 13.5-point home favorite. The public isn’t afraid of the heavy chalk and 62% of spread bets are laying the points with USC. This drove USC up from -13.5 to -14.5. Once the hook was available, we saw respected buyback on Rutgers +14.5, dropping the line back down to +14. Rutgers is only receiving 38% of spread bets in a heavily bet nationally televised game on FOX, offering notable contrarian value. We’ve also seen some smart money hit the over, raising the total from 55.5 to 56.5. This movement is notable because the public is leaning under (53% of bets), yet the line rose. This indicates a big of a sharp contrarian over play for the wiseguys.

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