Tonight we have a trio of Friday Night Lights matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN College Football Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7:30 p.m. ET: Stanford at Syracuse (-8.5, 56.5)

Stanford (1-1) just brushed aside Cal Poly 41-7 but failed to cover as 35-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Syracuse (2-0) just edged Georgia Tech 31-28, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Syracuse listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Orange at home. However, despite receiving 75% of spread bets we’ve seen Syracuse fall from -9.5 to -8.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Syracuse to begin with? Because pro money has sided with Stanford plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog. Stanford is only receiving 25% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN, offering notable contrarian value. Both teams are similar on offense, with Stanford scoring 68 points in two games while Syracuse has put up 69 points. The Cardinal have been better defensively, allowing 41 points compared to 50 for Syracuse. Stanford is 10th in the country in terms of rushing defense. Wiseguys also seem to be leaning under, as the total has fallen from 58 to 56.5 despite 55% of bets taking the over.

8 p.m. ET: Illinois at Nebraska (-7.5, 42.5)

Illinois (3-0, ranked 24th) just took down Central Michigan 30-9 but failed to cover as 21.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Nebraska (3-0, ranked 22nd) just defeated Northern Iowa 34-3, covering as 30.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 9-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this 50/50 bet split we’ve seen Nebraska fall from -9 to -7.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even, as the oddsmakers theoretically have no reason to adjust the number. So, based on this 50/50 line move, we can infer that pro money is siding with Illinois plus the points. Illinois has value as a conference dog, as the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. The Fighting Illini have correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low total game (42.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 43.5 to 42.5. The under is only receiving 40% of bets but 64% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.

10 p.m. ET: San Jose State at Washington State (-13, 55)

San Jose State (3-0) just breezed past Kennesaw State 31-10, covering as 16.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Washington State (3-0) just upset Washington 24-19, winning outright as 6-point neutral site dogs. This line opened with Washington State listed as a 14-point home favorite. The public expects an easy Cougars blowout and 72% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Washington State. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Washington State fall from -14 to -13. This signals sharp reverse line movement on San Jose State, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the highly unpopular side. The Spartans are only receiving 28% of spread bets in a heavily bet late-night game, offering notable “bet against the public” value. San Jose State will lean on their defense to keep this one close, allowing only 41 points in three games while Washington State has given up 65 points. The Spartans have correlative betting value as a near two-touchdown dog in a relatively low total game (55), with the fewer amount of expected points making it harder for the favorite to cover. Washington State might also be in a “letdown” spot after their big upset win over in-state rival Washington. The total opened at 55.5 and reached as high as 57.5 throughout the week before falling back down to 55, where it stands now. The under is receiving only 40% of bets but 45% of dollars.

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