Today we have a loaded Week 5 College Football slate with over 100-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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12 p.m. ET: BYU at Baylor (-3, 47)

BYU (4-0, ranked 22nd) just upset Kansas State 38-9, winning outright as 7-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Baylor (2-2) just fell to Colorado 38-31 in overtime, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Baylor listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks “the wrong team is favored” and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog BYU. However, despite 70% of spread bets taking BYU we’ve seen this line remain stagnant at Baylor -3 or even tick up to -3.5 at times throughout the week. This signals a sharp line freeze and some reverse line movement on Baylor, as the line has either stayed the same or moved slightly in their favor despite being the highly unpopular side. Baylor is only receiving 30% of spread bets but a whopping 61% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of pros fading the trendy dog Cougars. Those looking to protect themselves in what might be a close game could also elect to play Baylor on the moneyline at -150. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 52-24 (68%) straight up with a 9% ROI since 2017.

3:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma at Auburn (-1.5, 44.5)

Oklahoma (3-1, ranked 21st) just came up short against Tennessee 25-15, failing to cover as 6-point home dogs. Similarly, Auburn (2-2) just fell to Arkansas 24-14, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with Oklahoma, who has the superior record and ranking. However, despite the Sooners receiving 83% of spread bets we’ve seen this line completely flip from Oklahoma -3 to Auburn -1.5. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Auburn. This drastic line flip is especially notable because Auburn is only receiving 17% of spread bets yet the line moved in their direction, evidence of heavy sharp action backing the unpopular home team. The move toward Auburn is also significant because it’s been steady throughout the week with no Oklahoma buyback. Over the past 48-hours, Auburn “hopped the fence” from +1.5 to -1.5, signaling late movement breaking toward the Tigers even further. Auburn is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 17% of spread bets in a heavily bet, nationally televised late afternoon game on ABC. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 52-24 (68%) with a 9% ROI straight up since 2017. Auburn is -120 on the moneyline. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5. The under is receiving 30% of bets but 71% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split.

7:30 p.m. ET: Georgia (-1, 49.5) at Alabama

Georgia (3-0, ranked 2nd) just outlasted Kentucky 13-12 but failed to cover as 21.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Alabama (3-0, ranked 4th) just demolished Wisconsin 42-10, easily covering as 14.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Georgia listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to back the higher ranked Bulldogs laying short road chalk. However, despite receiving 66% of spread bets we’ve seen Georgia fall from -4.5 to -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Alabama, with the line moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. In fact, the movement toward Alabama has been steady and consistent all week with no Georgia buyback. Over the past 48-hours we’ve seen Alabama fall from +2 to +1. The Crimson Tide have notable contrarian value, receiving only 34% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the day which also happens to be a nationally televised primetime game on ABC. Alabama has additional value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. The Crimson Tide are also a “dog who can score” system match, thereby putting up enough points to keep pace or backdoor cover. Alabama has scored 147 points this season. Georgia has only scored 95 points.

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