Tonight we kickoff Week 10 of the College Football season with a tripleheader of games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.

 

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7 p.m. ET: New Mexico State at Florida International (-8.5, 43.5)

New Mexico State (2-5) just snapped a five-game losing streak with a 33-30 victory in overtime against Louisiana Tech, winning outright as 12.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, FIU (2-6) has dropped three straight games and just came up short against Sam Houston 10-7 but managed to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. This line opened with FIU listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even spread bet split we’ve seen FIU fall from -10 to -8.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on this line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing New Mexico State plus the points. New Mexico State is only receiving 50% of spread bets but 77% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of respected wiseguy support. New Mexico State has correlative betting value as a touchdown-plus dog in a low total game (43.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. New Mexico State also enjoys a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and last played on October 15th compared to FIU playing on October 22nd. Sharp money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 43.5. The under is only receiving 25% of bets but 48% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for high 70s with partly cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds, which qualifies as a windy under system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

7:30 p.m. ET: Louisiana at Texas State (-4, 58.5)

Louisiana (6-1) has won four straight games and just held off Coastal Carolina 34-24, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Texas State (4-3) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Old Dominion 24-14 and losing outright as 10.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas State listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early money laid the points with Texas State, driving the Bobcats up from -3 to -4.5. However, now that we’ve moved drastically off the opener we are seeing several shops juice up Louisiana +4.5 (-115), signaling some respected resistance on the Ragin’ Cajuns plus the points. Several shops are now back down to +4 as well. Louisiana is only receiving 53% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Short road dogs +4 or less are roughly 54% ATS over the past decade. When factoring in home field advantage (roughly 3 points), this means that on a neutral field the game would be a virtual pick’em. Louisiana has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Sun Belt road dogs are 119-99 ATS (55%) since 2020. Louisiana is also a “dog who can score” system match (34 PPG), thereby keeping pace or possibly backdoor covering.

8 p.m. ET: Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston State (-10, 45.5)

Louisiana Tech (3-4) has won two of their last three games and just outlasted UTEP 14-10 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Sam Houston (6-2) just took down FIU 10-7 but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Sam Houston listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public expects a blowout win by the Bearkats and 64% of spread bets are laying the big chalk with Sam Houston. This lopsided betting pushed Sam Houston up from -9.5 to -10.5. Once the hook was available, we saw some sharp buyback on Louisiana Tech +10.5, dropping the line back down to 10. Louisiana has contrarian value as they are only receiving 36% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPNU. The Bulldogs also hve value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. In terms of the total, it opened at 45.5 and hasn’t moved much at all. This lack of movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (65% of bets), yet we haven’t seen it rise. This signals a sharp line freeze on the under. The under is only receiving 35% of bets but a whopping 59% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Both teams are stout on defense, as Louisiana Tech is only giving up 21.6 PPG while Sam Houston is allowing just 22.6 PPG. The forecast calls for high 70s with clear skies but also 10-12 MPH winds, which would qualify as a “windy under” system match.

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