College Football Best Bets:

We can’t remember loving the start of the college football season this much here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. And only part of that is because we’re off to a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) start with our “dog or pass” best bets in these Thursday columns at VSiN.com. We went 2-1 ATS last week despite losing with our top choice Texas Tech +2 in an ugly 37-16 loss at Washington State last Saturday night. It didn’t sting so much with Louisiana-Monroe +13 at UAB not only covering but winning in an outright 32-6 rout, while South Carolina +7 at Kentucky was also a laugher in a similar 31-6 blowout!

We’ll take that any week.

 

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However, the personal highlight last Saturday was my alma mater, Northern Illinois University, upsetting No. 1 Notre Dame 16-14 in front of Touchdown Jesus in South Bend as 28-point underdogs and as high as +2200 on the moneyline. Unfortunately, I didn’t have a penny on the game. I did consider the Huskies as a play here at +28, but I felt it would be seen as just a homer play. I felt the line was too high and felt NIU could keep close, but I didn’t expect the Huskies to outplay the Fightless Irish the whole game. I usually don’t play dogs that big as the better, deeper team often runs over them in the second half.

But there’s a lesson there, as I often will bet those kinds of teams in the first half to shorten the game (and you usually get more than half of the game spread).

Enough looking back. Hopefully, we have four more live dogs for Week 3 this Saturday.

Hawaii +4.5 at Sam Houston State

Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN+

It’s not surprising to see a former FCS school favored over Hawaii, especially since the Sam Houston State program won the former Division I-AA’s national championship during the 2021 spring season (after COVID canceled the 2020 fall season). But this isn’t the same Bearkats team as they were blown out 45-14 by Central Florida last week. Hawaii lost 16-10 to UCLA before having a bye week, which should help in preparation for their first road game. Still, they should have the better passing offense with QB Brayden Schager (closing in on 7,000 career passing yards) and WR Pofele Ashlock (14 receptions, 193 yards, 1 TD) and spreading the ball around. I’m obviously hoping for the outright upset (which is what all five of my winning CFB dogs have done this season), but we’ll take the points in case the game comes down to a field goal. 

College Football Best Bet: Hawaii + 4.5

Air Force +16.5 at Baylor

7:30 p.m. ET (FS1)

Both teams have started 1-1 with wins over teams they should have beaten (Merrimack College for Air Force and Tarleton State for Baylor) and then losses against better competition (San Jose State for Air Force and Utah for Baylor). The Bears should be favored at home but by more than two touchdowns? No way! Baylor QB Dequan Finn was only 9-for-21 and just 115 passing yards last week, and certainly doesn’t scare us from taking the points. Besides, longtime readers know that I love the service academies as dogs because you know these young servicemen will give an honest effort. We also know Air Force will rely on their ground game to keep the clock running and shorten the game, making the points even more valuable.

College Football Best Bet: Air Force +16.5

Toledo +10.5 at Mississippi State

7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

As stated above, we missed the boat with NIU out of the MAC, but here’s a spot we like with Toledo getting double digits at an SEC school. The fact the line isn’t higher kinda tells us the oddsmakers know this isn’t an SEC vs. MAC mismatch. Toledo comes in at 2-0 (albeit with wins over Duquesne and UMass), but Mississippi State doesn’t look like an elite SEC team anyway after losing 30-23 at Arizona State last Saturday and being outgained 415 yards to 292 (346-24 on the ground!). I’m not saying Toledo should be favored (though I will have a little on the money line at +305), but this certainly looks like an inflated line with the SEC bias.

College Football Best Bet: Toledo +10.5

UCLA +3 vs. Indiana

7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

I’m not sure the right team is favored here, though I get it, as Indiana is off to a 2-0 start with routs of Florida International and Western Illinois, while UCLA struggled to beat Hawaii 16-13 (see above). However, the Hoosiers are taking a step up in competition. I don’t think they should be road faves here. As noted, UCLA did struggle in its opener, trailing Hawaii 10-0 at the half, but certainly improved to pull out the victory and has had two weeks to work out its issues after its trip to Hawaii (heck, I know what that’s like to recover from Hawaii trips!). QB Ethan Garbers finished with 272 passing yards and a TD to Rico Flores, who led the team with 102 receiving yards. 

College Football Best Bet: UCLA +3

For more Week 3 College Football Best Bets, visit the College Football Week 3 Hub at VSiN.com.

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