Week 10 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 10 College Football Power Ratings:

Six college football games are left for the month of October and then we flip the calendar over to November. We’re also into double digits now with Week 10’s arrival, so we really are flying through the season. We should also have a pretty good idea of what we have to work with now that the teams have so many data points, but I’m not entirely sure that’s the case.

The markets are pretty true indicators of how to rate and value these teams, but it does feel like there is more week-to-week variance than ever before. I’m not sure if it’s the dispersal of talent, the portal, all the annual coaching turnover. I really don’t know. But there are a lot of results week-to-week that don’t look like the team that we saw the previous week and won’t look like the team that we see the next week.

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This seems especially true to me in the conferences like Conference USA, MAC, and Sun Belt, where teams just aren’t as talented and so you get high-variance weeks and performances. As a result, I think rating those teams has been something of a moving target. Injury info is also trickier to find with those teams, too, and we definitely have teams dealing with a lot of ailments this late in the game. Cluster injuries to position groups may not get as much run as QB or skill-position injuries, so that’s part of the equation as well.

Here are my Week 10 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	93	3
2	Ohio State	90	3.5
3	Oregon	90	3.5
4	Texas	89	3.5
5	Clemson	88.5	3
6	Alabama	83.5	3.5
7	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
8	Miami (Florida)	83	2
9	Penn State	83	3.5
10	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
11	LSU	82	3.5
12	Mississippi	81.5	3.5
13	Indiana	81.5	1.5
14	Texas A&M	81.5	3
15	SMU	81	3.5
16	Iowa State	80.5	2
17	Boise State	77.5	2.5
18	Kansas State	77.5	3.5
19	BYU	76.5	2
20	Iowa	76	2.5
21	South Carolina	76	2.5
22	Washington	76	2
23	Colorado	75.5	2
24	Florida	75.5	2
25	Wisconsin	75.5	2
26	Auburn	75	2
27	Missouri	75	2
28	USC	74.5	2
29	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
30	Army	73.5	2
31	Baylor	73.5	2
32	Louisville	73.5	3.5
33	Michigan	73	3.5
34	California	72.5	2
35	Michigan State	72.5	2.5
36	Nebraska	72.5	2
37	Kentucky	72	2.5
38	Tulane	72	2
39	Arkansas	71.5	2
40	Cincinnati	71.5	2
41	UNLV	71.5	2
42	Pittsburgh	71	2
43	TCU	71	2.5
44	Vanderbilt	71	1
45	Georgia Tech	70.5	1
46	Kansas	70.5	2
47	UCF	70.5	3
48	Navy	70	2
49	Washington State	70	2.5
50	Minnesota	69.5	2
51	Oklahoma	69.5	3.5
52	West Virginia	69.5	3
53	Arizona State	69	2
54	Arizona	68.5	2
55	North Carolina	68.5	2.5
56	Texas Tech	68.5	2.5
57	Illinois	68	2
58	Virginia	68	2
59	Oklahoma State	67.5	3.5
60	Syracuse	67	2.5
61	Memphis	66.5	2
62	Duke	66	3
63	James Madison	65.5	3.5
64	Louisiana-Lafayette	65.5	3
65	Maryland	65.5	2
66	Texas State	65.5	2
67	Boston College	65	1.5
68	Utah	65	3.5
69	North Carolina State	64.5	3.5
70	Rutgers	62.5	2
71	UCLA	62.5	2
72	Western Kentucky	61.5	2.5
73	Florida State	61.5	2
74	Jacksonville State	61.5	2.5
75	Mississippi State	61.5	2
76	Old Dominion	61.5	2
77	Houston	61	2
78	Marshall	61	2
79	Northwestern	61	1.5
80	North Texas	60.5	2
81	Wake Forest	60.5	2.5
82	Fresno State	60	2.5
83	Bowling Green	59.5	2
84	Georgia Southern	59.5	2
85	Oregon State	59	3.5
86	South Alabama	59	2.5
87	Sam Houston State	57.5	2
88	Stanford	57.5	1
89	Toledo	57.5	2.5
90	Coastal Carolina	57	2.5
91	Colorado State	57	1
92	Appalachian State	56.5	2.5
93	Connecticut	56.5	2
94	Northern Illinois	56.5	1.5
95	Arkansas State	56	2
96	Miami (Ohio)	56	3
97	South Florida	55.5	2
98	Purdue	55.5	2
99	East Carolina	55	2
100	New Mexico	55	1
101	Ohio	55	2
102	Liberty	54.5	3
103	Charlotte	54	1
104	Nevada	54	1.5
105	UTSA	54	3.5
106	San Jose State	53.5	2
107	Western Michigan	53.5	2
108	Utah State	53	2
109	Georgia State	52	2
110	Florida Atlantic	51.5	2
111	Rice	51.5	2
112	Troy	51.5	2.5
113	Louisiana-Monroe	51	2
114	Buffalo	50.5	1
115	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
116	Hawai’i	50	2
117	San Diego State	50	2
118	Florida International	49	1
119	Temple	48	2
120	Akron	47.5	1
121	Air Force	47	2.5
122	Central Michigan	47	2
123	Wyoming	47	2.5
124	Louisiana Tech	46.5	2
125	Massachusetts	46.5	1
126	Southern Mississippi	46	2
127	Tulsa	44.5	1
128	UAB	44	2.5
129	UTEP	42.5	2
130	Ball State	42	2
131	Middle Tennessee	40.5	2
132	Kent State	37.5	2
133	New Mexico State	37.5	2.5
134	Kennesaw State	35.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: UTEP +1, Kennesaw State +3, Old Dominion +2, Bowling Green +2, North Carolina +1, Ball State +2, Ohio +2, Georgia State +1, Duke +3, East Carolina +1, Indiana +1, Texas A&M +2, Baylor +3.5, North Texas +2.5, Charlotte +2.5, Vanderbilt +3, Kansas +3, Colorado +3, San Diego State +1, Oregon +1.5, Southern Miss +1.5, Michigan State +2, Auburn +1.5, New Mexico State +1

Down: Liberty -4, Louisville -1, Toledo -2.5, Florida State -1.5, Virginia -2.5, James Madison -1, Northern Illinois -2, App State -1, Central Michigan -1.5, Maryland -1.5, LSU -1, Utah -2.5, Oklahoma State -2.5, Tulane -1.5, Texas -1, Kansas State -1, Oregon State -2, Northwestern -2.5, Nevada -3.5, Illinois -1, Ohio State -1, Kentucky -1.5, Virginia Tech -2, Mississippi -3, Western Kentucky -2, South Florida -3

Injury: Georgia Tech -4 (King)*; Missouri -4 (Cook)*, Penn State -4 (Allar)*, Sam Houston State -3 (Watson)*

* If out

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Baylor +3.5: The Bears had another impressive week, as they seem to be trying to save Dave Aranda’s job. They’ve been bumped a couple times now by me.

Duke +3: I’m still not sold on this team and they found a way to lose with a +6 TO margin, but my line was too high last week, so I had to respect the market a little.

Vanderbilt +3: Another big Vandy showing. Diego Pavia for President.

Colorado +3: Another upgrade for the Buffs, who are rolling in the Big 12.

Kennesaw State +3: The Owls got their first FBS win by knocking off Liberty. Still the lowest-rated team for me, but a big win for sure.

Liberty -4: How disappointing has this team been? They’ve played with fire a ton and got burned by the worst team in FBS. They can still win Conference USA, but other goals are completely unattainable.

Nevada -3.5: Market correction. I had Nevada a very clear road favorite at Hawaii. That was obviously very wrong.

Mississippi -3: Not sure what’s up with the Lane Train and all the NIL money that they spent, but it’s not going terribly well in Oxford.

South Florida -3: Rumors swirling that Byrum Brown is out for the season.

Here are my Week 10 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/29	New Mexico State	FIU	-12.5
	Louisiana Tech	Sam Houston (w/ Watson)	-13
	Louisiana	Texas State	-2
10/30	Jacksonville State	Liberty	+4
	Kennesaw State	Western Kentucky	-28.5
10/31	Tulane	Charlotte	+17
11/1	Georgia State	UConn	-6.5
	South Florida	FAU	+5
	San Diego State	Boise State	-30
11/2	Virginia Tech	Syracuse	+4
	Louisville	Clemson	-18
	Old Dominion	App State	+2.5
	Arizona	UCF	-5
	Air Force	Army	-28.5
	Vanderbilt	Auburn	-6
	Mississippi	Arkansas	+8
	Louisiana Monroe	Marshall	-12
	Duke	Miami (FL)	-19
	Buffalo	Akron	+2
	Toledo	Eastern Michigan	+5
	TCU	Baylor	-4.5
	Northwestern	Purdue	+3.5
	Minnesota	Illinois	-0.5
	Indiana	Michigan State	+6.5
	North Carolina	Florida State	+5
	Florida	Georgia (N – J’ville)	-17.5
	Stanford	NC State	-10.5
	Memphis	UTSA	+9
	Middle Tennessee	UTEP	-4
	Texas Tech	Iowa State	-14
	Arizona State	Oklahoma State	-2
	Pitt	SMU	-13.5
	Navy	Rice	+16.5
	Tulsa	UAB	-2
	Kansas State	Houston	+14.5
	Coastal Carolina	Troy	+3
	Georgia Southern	South Alabama	-2
	USC	Washington	-3.5
	Wisconsin	Iowa	-3
	UCLA	Nebraska	-12
	Oregon	Michigan	+13.5
	Wyoming	New Mexico	-9
	UMass	Mississippi State	-17
	Texas A&M	South Carolina	+3
	Kentucky	Tennessee	-14
	Hawaii	Fresno State	-12.5
	Colorado State	Nevada	+1.5
	Ohio State	Penn State (w/ Allar)	+3.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

FIU -7.5 (-12.5) vs. New Mexico State: Long trek for the boys from Las Cruces, who are off a bye, but are also bottom five in yards per play and bottom 20 in yards per play allowed.

Jacksonville State +1 (-4) at Liberty: I had this game circled as the one Liberty was going to lose. After the adjustment to Liberty from last week, I have the Gamecocks favored as opposed to PK, where this line would have been.

Boise State -24 (-30) vs. San Diego State: SDSU has been really, truly bad this season. They’ve been playing tight games, but all against bad teams. It’s possible they’ve turned a corner and the Wazzu game was evidence, but I’m not really sold. However, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty got banged up and had a big workload last Friday, so maybe I should have accounted for that more.

Clemson -11 (-18) vs. Louisville: Louisville hasn’t impressed me most of the season. Clemson’s been on a tear.

SMU -7 (-13.5) vs. Pitt: SMU’s one-point win over Duke won’t grade well, but they were -6 in TO margin in that game. Pitt, meanwhile, had three pick-sixes against Syracuse in the first half. I’m having a hard time rating them because they’re undefeated and solid, but also have had some close calls.

Georgia Southern +6 (+2) at South Alabama: I’ll give Georgia Southern a pass for last week after the miraculous Marshall comeback and the James Madison win. Also, maybe ODU is just on a heater with freshman Colton Joseph. South Alabama is good, too, but maybe overpriced here.

Washington +2.5 (-3.5) vs. USC: I think the market has this game very wrong. Washington is fifth in the nation in YPP on defense and have only given up 4.6 YPP in Big Ten action. The two offenses are pretty identical in production. I think Jedd Fisch is a better coach. Wrong team favored.

Nebraska -7.5 (-12) vs. UCLA: Pretty big bounce back effort from the Huskers to hold Ohio State under 300 yards. No shame in the games they’ve lost. Better team, better coach.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.