Week 2 College Football Best Bets from Steve Makinen:

We have another loaded College Football VSiN Analytics Report for Week 2, and after digging through all of it, with an enhanced focus on the games from my Stability Mismatches plays, here are my Best Bets for Week 2. 

For those following along, depending upon when you bet the FIU-Indiana game last week, you were either 5-4 or 6-3 with my opening week plays. I bet FIU on Saturday before kickoff when they closed at +25.5 so I was personally 6-3 ATS. In any case, I have a few more games than last week for the coming weekend. 16 in fact!

 

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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 6

BYU at SMU (-11.5)

It seems weird to say but this contest between BYU & SMU will be a very intriguing battle of Power 4 opponents, both coming off FCS routs last weekend. It will be the third game of the season for the Mustangs, and I believe, the first opponent of which they will legitimately get motivated by. This is a veteran SMU team that hits the ACC for the first time in ’24 and, in my opinion, are a legit threat to contend in the supposedly better conference. Obviously with all that has happened to FSU, Virginia Tech, & Clemson thus far, the ACC doesn’t look nearly as strong as some people thought. HC Rhett Lashlee’s team can put up points; they’ve averaged 37+ PPG in each of the last five seasons. 

This past season, they also played great defense, allowing just 17.8 PPG, holding teams 12.7 points below their season averages. Meanwhile, BYU scored just 23.1 PPG for HC Kalani Sitake last season and starts fresh with QB Gerry Bohanon this year. He missed most of last season while with USF. According to the math on that, the Cougars would only be expected to score around 10 points here. 

SMU also qualifies for two systems from this week’s Analytics Report. First, when the majority of NUMBER of BETS has backed a team in an ATS wager in NON-SATURDAY games, their 2022 & 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with less games to choose from. Second, over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 132-96 ATS (57.9%). This doesn’t look like a comfortable win on paper, but I think that’s why it will be.

Let’s lay the 11.5-points with SMU

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

GEORGIA TECH (-3) at SYRACUSE

Georgia Tech already has the look of a team that bettors are going to want to get behind consistently in 2024. After finishing the ’23 season in strong fashion, the Yellow Jackets have picked up right where they left off for third-year Head Coach Brent Key, winning their first two games outright & ATS. They were a stability play last week for me and bring it back for another shot here at Syracuse. Key’s team is a very rare ACC road favorite, as this is the first time since mid-’21 that will happen. The ’24 team looks very worthy of the honor however. 

The Orange got a win, but no cover in their season opening 38-22 decision over Ohio U. First-time Head Coach Fran Brown has a decent amount of experience back for this fall, but his coaching staff is new, his QB is new (Kyle McCord), and this will be the first real test for that instability to survive. There are teams in every college season that just continue to win and cover. GT could be one of those and I will continue to ride the wave.

Let’s take Georgia Tech as the 3-point road chalk

TEXAS (-7.5) at MICHIGAN

Perhaps the marquee game on the Week 2 college football slate as two returning playoff teams from a year ago go head-to-head in Ann Arbor. The defending national champion hosts are a fade play on our stability system for a second straight week, and I can tell you right now that they will be again next week versus Arkansas State. HC Sherrone Moore’s team scores a ZERO on our stability scale, replacing almost every key facet. The Wolverines are 1-0, but failed to cover against Fresno State last week, looking every bit the part of a talented, but raw, team. 

If they look that way this week, they could get blown out by Texas, as the Longhorns played last week like they have something to prove in ’24, routing Colorado State 52-0. HC Steve Sarkisian’s team has 14 starters back from a year ago, including QB Quinn Ewers, arguably the nation’s best at the position. 

For those wondering how a team that has won 29 of its L30 games could be a near-TD home underdog, look no further than a stability score advantage of 18-0 as the reason. I can easily see this being a game where the Wolverines hang around and are fueled by the home crowd, but in the end, if you can’t score with Texas, you aren’t beating or covering against Texas.

Lay the 7-points with Texas

ARKANSAS at OKLAHOMA ST (-7)

Two teams that played better than expected against FCS teams in their openers go head-to-head in an intriguing SEC-Big 12 battle. Arkansas ripped UAPB 70-0 as a 50.5-point favorite, with transfer QB Taylen Green putting up big numbers as a dual-threat option. The game was so one-sided that the coaches agreed to shorten the game to two 10-minute quarters in the second half. For those of you not in the know on Pine Bluff, they could best be compared to a high-level high school team, not an opponent to prepare someone for OSU. The Razorbacks come into this one on a 0-12 ATS skid following a straight up win. 

On the other sideline, I have proclaimed my wagering support for HC Mike Gundy & Co. on several occasions this offseason, and they did not disappoint in easily handling FCS power South Dakota State last week. Running back Ollie Gordon had a huge game and will have a huge season barring anything unexpected. The Cowboys have 19 starters back, including veteran QB Alan Bowman, and in my mind, have a great shot at surprising some teams in the Big 12. A convincing win here for OSU would definitely start opening some eyes to this stable team’s potential.

Let’s lay the 7-points with OSU

TEMPLE at NAVY (-12.5)

I don’t blame you if you have trouble getting behind this Temple pick, especially if you watched them last week at Oklahoma. However, I must stress that the Sooners in Norman are a far bigger challenge than the Midshipmen are. Plus, the Owls suffered from turnover woes and nearly still covered the number. 

Navy is still getting used to its offensive changes under Brian Newberry. Last year his team scored just 17.7 PPG, and the jury is still out for ’24 as they have only a win over Bucknell to their credit. This is usually not a great matchup for the Middies either, as Temple has won the last two ATS, including a 32-18 upset in Philly last year as a 7-point dog. 

For the record, underdogs are also on an 8-3 ATS surge in this head-to-head series. On top of that, we have this system going against Navy in play: Teams that are double-digit conference favorites in game 2 after having just a FCS opening game under their belt have gone just 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS (12.5%) over the last 12 seasons. It’s obviously a rare but very effective game 2 angle.

Let’s take the Owls of Temple plus the 12.5-points

BAYLOR at UTAH (-14.5)

Sometimes I just have to go with selections off of my initial gut instinct. My first thought when I saw Utah open as a 14-point favorite over Baylor was “wow, that seems high”. Since, the number has moved up to 14.5, and I don’t see any further reason why I wouldn’t stick to my guns. 

Both teams come off of rout wins in Week 1 over FCS teams so no advantage there. What I was most interested in from those contests was how Bears’ QB Dequan Finn would fit in with a lineup of experienced vets. He looked good in accounting for three TD’s, one on a long run. He has 18 returning starters around him and this program is typically good as a road/neutral dog, going 14-7 ATS in L21 tries. This is also a first ever Big 12 game for Utah so there’s an obvious pressure associated with that. If you recall, the Utes didn’t score well last year, averaging just 23.2 PPG, a drop off of 15+ PPG from ’22. QB Cam Rising is back so should boost that number, but I think it’s too early to expect a big number versus Baylor here.

Utah is also a fade qualifier on this angle: teams that are double-digit conference favorites in game 2 after having just a FCS opening game under their belt have gone just 4-4 SU & 1-7 ATS (12.5%) over the last 12 seasons.

Let’s take Baylor +14.5 in what I expect to be a competitive game

SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY (-10)

Opening-week games against weaker FBS or FCS opponents can often send the wrong message about a team’s strengths. At other times they can be very telling. Such is the opposite case for Kentucky and South Carolina after last week’s wins. The teams each come in 1-0 in what figures to be an eventually consequential game for both teams in terms of their bowl hopes for 2024. 

Kentucky is off a 31-0 rout of Southern Miss, probably leaving fans to believe this will be a smooth transitional year for HC Mark Stoops & Co. They probably aren’t concerned about the SEC Wildcats scoring just 31 points against a Sun Belt team that allowed 35.8 PPG. South Carolina on the other hand, has obvious concerns after putting up just 23 points and 298 yards in a come from behind win against Old Dominion. 

What do these two teams have in common when it comes to their offenses this season? Both are replacing multi-year starting quarterbacks that have since moved on to the NFL. These offenses are bound to struggle in ’24, while both defenses have brought back at least eight starters. There is a reason the total for their game is set at a low 42.5. That said, bettors are actually piling in on the UNDER at DraftKings, which could be good as, since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority HANDLE bettors siding with the UNDER have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting UNDER’s, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp. If that weren’t enough, UNDER the total is 8-1 in L9 of this rivalry.

Let’s go UNDER 42.5 in South Carolina-Kentucky

N ILLINOIS at NOTRE DAME (-28.5)

It wouldn’t be unlike Notre Dame to come out flat after last week’s huge upset win at Texas A&M, particularly with experts all over gushing about the enhanced CFP chances now that the Irish’s so-called toughest game of the season is in the rear view mirror. There have been a few occasions in the HC Marcus Freeman era where his team has come off a big win only to follow it up with a less than stellar effort. Note last year after big road wins at NC State & Duke, ND went 0-2 ATS. 

Perhaps a more similar situation to this week’s happened in 2022 however, when Freeman’s team beat Clemson one week, only to nearly lose a 3-point decision to Navy a week later. It happens, and you can be assured that Northern Illinois will be hungry to put on a good showing here in South Bend. 

In the L4 games hosting MAC teams, ND is just 1-3 ATS. The Huskies were 36-point favorites last week in their 54-15 win over Eastern Illinois and are now in excess of four-TD dogs. That sets them up for this strong system: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from game 1 to game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52-points or more worse in game 2 than their opener are on a 37-17 ATS (68%) run, including 1-0 ATS already in 2024 after Hawaii’s close loss to UCLA last week. NIU is one of the better teams in the MAC and has 16 starters back from the 7-6 team of a year ago.

Let’s take the 28.5-points with Northern Illinois

E MICHIGAN at WASHINGTON (-24)

It’s sometimes tough to get a good gauge on an unstable FBS power team when it plays its opener against an FCS opponent and handles them easily. Such is the case for Washington, the defending national runners-up, who opened the ’24 campaign with a 35-3 win over Weber State. The Huskies didn’t necessarily do anything too well to think that they won’t miss a beat, but they also didn’t do anything poorly enough to give naysayers reason to believe that this will be a year for starting over for the program. 

On the surface, with a new coaching, and an overall stability score of ZERO, there are obvious reasons for concern. I don’t know if the concern is big enough to get uneasy about hosting Eastern Michigan this week either, but perhaps laying 25.5 points should be the thing we are concentrating on most. This team put up 56 points in the ’23 opener versus Boise State, and now scored just 35 on Weber State. Perhaps this is as big of a reason as anything to not trust this new Washington offense under HC Jedd Fisch to come up big on Saturday. 

Plus, EMU put up 28 points in a road win at UMass last week with Rutgers transfer QB Cole Snyder looking very comfortable in his new surroundings. The Eagles are also always a very good road team, 37-15 ATS since 2016. This number looks bigger than I’d be comfortable laying and it has dumped quickly since the beginning of the week.

I like Eastern Michigan +24

MICHIGAN ST at MARYLAND (-10)

For the second straight week, Michigan State is a fade option on our stability system, this time at Maryland in the Big Ten opener for both teams. Although new Head Coach Jonathan Smith’s team got the win last week against FAU, they failed to cover the number and showed obvious signs of being an inexperienced group on offense in the new Smith schemes. That unit gained less than 300 yards and turned the ball over three times. Things are typically much worse for unstable teams on the road, particularly against conference rivals. 

There were no such offensive troubles for HC Mike Locksley’s Maryland offense, as the Terps put up 50 points and 629 yards on UConn. The biggest concern for Locksley this season figured to come from replacing Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback. Those concerns were alleviated greatly by Billy Edwards’ big performance in game 1. He, along with the MSU instability, are big reasons why the Terps are near double-digit favorites here. However, the test the Spartans will give Edwards & teammates is far bigger than what he faced last week. With UNDER the total on a 8-0-1 run in this head-to-head series, I don’t see much reason to not ride that trend again.

Let’s go UNDER 43.5 in MSU-Maryland

MARSHALL at VIRGINIA TECH (-20)

Virginia Tech’s disinterested performance in a loss at Vanderbilt to open the season was both confounding and disappointing. The Hokies seemed to have all the momentum coming into the ’24 season with the most returning experience in the country from a 7-6 team. Seemingly, HC Brent Pry had everything going in the right direction. That all changed with the upset loss in Nashville, and now it’s up to Pry to get his team ready for Marshall in the home opener. Of course, playing in Blacksburg in front of the home folks is always an incredible honor to Hokies’ players, and there are plenty of great traditions to get them motivated. 

They did face uncertainty with QB Kyron Drones listed as questionable after an injury last week however with this line moving quickly to the Hokies throughout the week, I assume he’s a go. Marshall has a stability score of nine and comes off a resounding 45-3 rout of Stony Brook. QB Cole Pennington looked much the part of his dad Chad in the Herd Green in that win. How he and his young team perform in one of college football’s most difficult environments could be a totally different situation.

Lay the 20-points with Virginia Tech

SOUTH FLORIDA at ALABAMA (-31.5)

A very stable South Florida team will face a game 2 test much stiffer than the one it faced in the season opener. The Bulls come off a 48-3 rout of Bethune-Cookman but now take on an Alabama team that looked outstanding in its HC Kalen DeBoer era opening win over Western Kentucky. The Tide didn’t miss a beat in moving on from Nick Saban. 

USF will be the beneficiary of a near 70% reactionary system that I detail in another article due to the huge line adjustment they will be facing. The Bulls were 43.5-point favorites last week, now they are 31-point dogs. Anything over 52 points adjusted in that regard has been strong. HC Alex Golesh’s team can score behind QB Byrum Brown. Can the defense do enough to get at least an ATS win? The stability factor says it’s likely. USF’s 18-11 ATS revenge record and a massive number for a game featuring two returning bowl teams makes it more likely. Alabama wins but doesn’t cover.

Let’s take the 31.5-points with South Florida

BUFFALO at MISSOURI (-34.5)

You have probably picked up on the fact that there are several very capable teams this week playing with huge stability edges. That can’t possibly be a bad thing, assuming they don’t take their far weaker upcoming opponents for granted. Missouri is back in 2024 and has CFP aspirations, boasting 14 returning starters for HC Eli Drinkwitz, now in his 5th season in Columbia. His star player is QB Brady Cook, now a senior with 26 starts to his name over the last two years. The Tigers conveniently beat Murray State in the opener 51-0, and I say conveniently because they were 50.5-point favorites. Almost as if they knew what they had to do and had full control of how to do it. 

Sure, Buffalo figures to put up a better fight than the Racers, but how much? The Bulls stability score is just two and HC Pete Lembo’s team brought back just three offensive starters. They beat Lafayette handily in the opener, 30-13, but a trip to Mizzou will be a far different challenge. Just doing simple math equating the final score to the line/total combination, this game projects out as MIZ 42.8, Buff 8.3.  The Bulls haven’t scored fewer than 10 points in any game since ’21. I don’t see them covering with fewer than 10 points.

I’m willing to lay the 34.5-points with Missouri

KANSAS (-5.5) at ILLINOIS

Although both efforts came at the expense of overmatched FCS opponents, the offenses of Kansas & Illinois got off to solid starts last week, with each team scoring at least 45 mostly first-half points. Why wouldn’t they? Both programs brought back veteran starting quarterbacks and a wealth of other returning starting experience. The Illini scored a four-year high 24.5 PPG last year for HC Bret Bielema and it would seem that the offensive attack is only trending upward. 

At the same time, Kansas has been one of the most reliable teams in the country for OVER bettors the last five seasons, going 32-16 OVER. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is one of the most explosive players in the country, capable of leading his offense to big point totals on almost anyone. Case in point, the Jayhawks averaged  31 PPG in ’23 versus Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas State. My Bettor’s Ratings numbers said this total should be at or around 60. I agree. Last year the teams played a 34-23 decision in which Kansas gained 539 yards of offense. The points could have been way higher.

I’ll go OVER 56 with Kansas-Illinois

BOISE ST at OREGON (-20)

I see a lot of people out on social media this week proclaiming that there is no reason to panic after Oregon’s ugly 24-14 win over Idaho to open the season. There is a ton of expectation in Eugene this year with the move to the Big Ten and the arrival of transfer QB Dillon Gabriel. Now, I’m not going to panic myself but I’m also not going to RELAX, as this upcoming game could be a scare for Oregon. They are facing a hungry Boise State team that relishes these opportunities and also looked explosive in a 56-45 win last week at Georgia Southern. 

The last time the Broncos were in Oregon was in 2008, and they pulled a 37-32 upset as 8-point dogs. Looking back again at last week’s underwhelming performance for HC Dan Lanning’s team, it puts them in a bad system position for this one: both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 130-173 ATS (42.9%) over the last decade-plus. In other words, playing so far off of the expected norm is hard to bounce back from. I won’t be surprised if the Ducks win here, I will be surprised if it’s easy.

Let’s take the 20-points with Boise State

TENNESSEE (-8) vs. NC STATE

Hopefully everyone recognizes that this game is being played in a neutral environment at Charlotte and not in Raleigh where theoretically the Wolfpack would have stood a better chance. Tennessee looked very sharp last week in crushing Chattanooga with QB Nico Iamaleava looking the part of a Heisman Trophy contender.

 For those of you unaware and thinking the quarterback position could be a potential weak spot for the Vols this year, know that Nico was a 5-star recruit and already lit up the very stout Iowa defense with his arm and legs in the Citrus Bowl last January. The huge effort last week against UTC sets HC Josh Heupel’s team up for a nice system on Saturday called Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances – Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 132-96 ATS (57.9%). That momentum should be big here as the ACC has a lot to prove after an inauspicious start. NC State struggled with Western Carolina last week and actually trailed 21-17 early in the 4th quarter. QB Grayson McCall was very sharp for HC Dave Doeren’s squad but the defense allowed 361 yards. Tennessee’s offense could get way more.

Let’s lay the 8-points with Tennessee in this neutral tilt

For more College Football Week 2 predictions, visit the College Football Week 2 Hub at VSiN.com.

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