Week 3 College Football Best Bets:

Let’s take a look at my Week 3 college football best bets.

 

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Notre Dame (-8) at Purdue

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Riley Leonard was expected to be the answer as Notre Dame’s newest transfer quarterback. Instead, he was a big part of the problem in the season’s highest-profile upset so far. Leonard failed to consistently move the offense and folded under pressure in the fourth quarter last Saturday, when the Fighting Irish were stunned 16-14 by Northern Illinois, a 28-point underdog.

With their playoff hopes already on the ropes, the Irish need to answer the bell and run off a long winning streak. Maybe the stunner delivered by the Huskies was a needed wake-up call for Notre Dame, but maybe the Leonard-led offense simply lacks what it takes.

While a trip to Purdue is not going to be the ultimate test, the Irish will show what they are made of Saturday at West Lafayette, Ind., and in future weeks. Leonard is likely to start despite an injury to his left non-throwing shoulder, a week after the Duke transfer threw for 163 yards (only 5.1 per attempt) and two interceptions against Northern Illinois.

The upset was no fluke. Notre Dame was outgained 388 to 286 on its home field by a Mid-American Conference team. The Irish had all of their offensive flaws, including an inexperienced line, exposed. Leonard does not trigger an offense that will produce many explosive plays.

The Boilermakers are better at the quarterback position with Hudson Card, who’s in his second season in the Big Ten after transferring from Texas. Card connected on 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and four touchdowns in a 49-0 victory over Indiana State two weeks ago.

Notre Dame has the far superior defense and that unit, coupled with its running attack, should be enough to subdue Purdue. Still, this appears to be a game the Irish will need to grind out. The DraftKings lookahead line of Notre Dame -16 has been chopped in half, so significant point-spread value has disappeared on the dog. I took +11 and still will recommend the home ‘dog as a play while predicting the Irish escape with a one-score win.

College Football Best Bet: Purdue +8

Oregon (-17) at Oregon State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (FOX)

In the long run, the Ducks could prove to be national title contenders. But the truth through two games is Oregon has been way overrated in the betting market. The numbers produced by quarterback Dillon Gabriel don’t indicate he is overhyped. Gabriel has completed 84.3% of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Oklahoma transfer is transitioning to a new offense and it will take some time for everything to run smoothly.

Oregon was a 49-point favorite in a 24-14 victory over Idaho and an 18-point favorite in a last-second 37-34 victory over Boise State. After two home games, the Ducks hit the road and again lay a big number at Oregon State, which is treating this game as its Super Bowl.

The Beavers, off a 21-0 win at San Diego State, are solid enough on both sides of the ball to stay competitive. Veteran quarterback Gevani McCoy, a transfer from Idaho, and running backs Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson have enough talent to trade punches with the Ducks.

College Football Best Bet: Oregon State +17

Texas A&M (-4) at Florida

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)

It’s not easy to back Florida coach Billy Napier again. Two weeks ago, the Gators were crushed in The Swamp by a Miami team with a star quarterback and a high-powered offense. Texas A&M does not pose the same threat. In fact, the Aggies have a struggling offense led by quarterback Conner Weigman, who was 12-for-30 for 100 yards and two interceptions in a season-opening loss to Notre Dame.

The key to this play should be freshman DJ Lagway, who arrived at Florida as the nation’s No. 1 quarterback recruit. Lagway passed for 456 yards and three touchdowns last week in his first start, a 45-7 victory over Samford. Lagway might split time with veteran Graham Mertz (concussion), but the Gators’ players sound energized to rally around Lagway.

College Football Best Bet: Florida +4

Colorado (-7.5) at Colorado State

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Rams led the Buffaloes 28-17 with eight minutes remaining last year in Boulder. Colorado State, which blew the lead and lost 43-35, rolled up 499 total yards behind quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and star receiver Tory Horton. A weak Buffaloes pass defense that is missing injured safety Shilo Sanders will have trouble containing Fowler-Nicolosi and Horton in the rematch. Colorado has two superstars yet too many shortcomings.

College Football Best Bet: Colorado State +7.5

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 4-6

For more College Football Week 3 predictions, visit the College Football Week 3 Hub at VSiN.com.

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