Week 3 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 3 College Football Power Ratings:

This week and next week are the most important weeks of the season if you set your own college football lines. Now that we have at least two data points from just about every team, opinions are really being formed and extreme biases are setting in.

Look, a team that stinks in the first two weeks of the season may stink for the rest of the season. The inverse is also true with teams that have stood out in the early going. But, we’re at that time of the year when those who create power ratings have to decide how much their priors still matter. Has 120 minutes worth of football wiped away days, weeks, and months of research and analysis to prepare for the season?

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Ego also plays a part. You want to believe that you are right. That what you expected to happen – what you bet on happening – is still going to happen. That there are some extenuating circumstances as to why a team’s rating was too high or too low. That variance is just part of the equation and something where you have to weather the storm, not run from it.

It is also a key time of year because you are going to be pushed to back up your opinions with dollars and it could be a costly couple of weeks if what you believe is wrong. It could also be very profitable because the reactionary crowd is going to move lines too far away from where they should be. These are my favorite and least favorite weeks of the season for those reasons.

If I’m not going to dig my heels in and support my opinions, what am I doing creating opinions to begin with? At the same time, if I dig in and I’m wrong, how long will it take me to admit that I’m wrong? Those are primary questions in Weeks 3 and 4. After that, we wind up getting a lot of conference play and some degree of normalcy tends to creep in.

Remember – there is no preseason in college football. These two or three games have been the first real games of the season. Some things take time. Others are lost causes. Coaches are paid to figure out all of those things. Bettors have to figure out all of those things to get paid.

Here are my Week 3 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	97	3
2	Ohio State	93	3.5
3	Texas	92	3.5
4	Alabama	89	3.5
5	Oregon	86.5	3.5
6	Mississippi	86	3.5
7	LSU	85	3.5
8	Penn State	84	3.5
9	USC	84	2
10	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
11	Tennessee	83	3.5
12	Missouri	82	2
13	Oklahoma	81.5	3.5
14	Texas A&M	81.5	3
15	Clemson	81	3
16	Miami (Florida)	80.5	2
17	Utah	79.5	3.5
18	Michigan	78.5	3.5
19	Iowa State	78	2
20	Kansas State	78	3.5
21	Louisville	78	3.5
22	Arizona	77	2
23	Oklahoma State	77	3.5
24	TCU	77	2.5
25	Iowa	75.5	2.5
26	Washington	75	2
27	Auburn	74.5	2
28	Nebraska	74.5	2
29	Florida	74	2
30	Florida State	74	2
31	Kentucky	74	2.5
32	Boise State	73.5	2.5
33	Kansas	73.5	2
34	Georgia Tech	73	1
35	UCF	73	3
36	Virginia Tech	73	2
37	West Virginia	73	3
38	Wisconsin	73	2
39	Memphis	72.5	2
40	Arkansas	72	2
41	Tulane	72	2
42	Indiana	70	1.5
43	North Carolina State	70	3.5
44	Rutgers	70	2
45	South Carolina	70	2.5
46	Arizona State	69.5	2
47	Pittsburgh	69.5	2
48	SMU	69.5	3.5
49	Maryland	69	2
50	UCLA	69	2
51	Baylor	68.5	2
52	California	68.5	2
53	Minnesota	68.5	2
54	Syracuse	68.5	2.5
55	North Carolina	67.5	2.5
56	BYU	67	2
57	Colorado	67	2
58	Illinois	67	2
59	UNLV	67	2
60	Liberty	66.5	3
61	Oregon State	66	3.5
62	South Florida	66	2
63	Texas Tech	66	2.5
64	Washington State	66	2.5
65	Appalachian State	65.5	2.5
66	Michigan State	65.5	2.5
67	Virginia	65.5	2
68	Boston College	65	1.5
69	Cincinnati	65	2
70	Mississippi State	65	2
71	Purdue	65	2
72	Duke	64	3
73	Wake Forest	64	2.5
74	Houston	63.5	2
75	Fresno State	63	2.5
76	Texas State	63	2
77	Coastal Carolina	62	2.5
78	Miami (Ohio)	62	3
79	Northwestern	62	1.5
80	Bowling Green	61.5	2
81	Stanford	61.5	1
82	Louisiana-Lafayette	61	3
83	Northern Illinois	61	1.5
84	UTSA	61	3.5
85	Western Kentucky	60	2.5
86	East Carolina	59.5	2
87	James Madison	59.5	3.5
88	Toledo	59	2.5
89	Vanderbilt	59	1
90	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
91	Old Dominion	57.5	2
92	San Jose State	57.5	2
93	Air Force	57	2.5
94	Marshall	57	2
95	North Texas	57	2
96	South Alabama	57	2.5
97	Nevada	56.5	1.5
98	Rice	56.5	2
99	Arkansas State	56	2
100	Army	56	2
101	Colorado State	56	1
102	San Diego State	56	2
103	UAB	56	2.5
104	Wyoming	55.5	2.5
105	Hawai’i	55	2
106	Navy	55	2
107	Western Michigan	55	2
108	Ohio	54	2
109	Utah State	54	2
110	Jacksonville State	53	2.5
111	Troy	53	2.5
112	Tulsa	53	1
113	Southern Mississippi	52.5	2
114	Georgia State	51.5	2
115	Sam Houston State	51	2
116	Ball State	50.5	2
117	Central Michigan	50.5	2
118	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
119	Florida Atlantic	50	2
120	Buffalo	49.5	1
121	Connecticut	49	2
122	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
123	New Mexico	49	1
124	New Mexico State	48	2.5
125	Charlotte	47	1
126	Akron	46	1
127	Florida International	46	1
128	Louisiana Tech	46	2
129	Middle Tennessee	46	2
130	Massachusetts	45.5	1
131	UTEP	43.5	2
132	Kennesaw State	43	2
133	Kent State	42	2
134	Temple	42	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: BYU +2, Duke +2, Indiana +3, Syracuse +2, Tulane +1.5, Bowling Green +2.5, Memphis +1.5, Rutgers +1, Texas +2, Arkansas +1.5, Cal +2.5, Louisville +2, Northern Illinois +3.5, Eastern Michigan +1.5, Michigan State +1.5, FIU +1.5, East Carolina +2.5, Ohio +1, Illinois +1.5, San Jose State +1.5, Nebraska +2, Clemson +1.5, Arizona State +3, USC +4, UNLV +1.5, Boise State +2, Houston +2, Tulane +2.5, Iowa State +1.5, Minnesota +2, Pitt +2, Boston College +2, Nevada +1, 

Down: SMU -4, Northwestern -3, Georgia Tech -1.5, Troy -5, Cincinnati -1, Florida Atlantic -2, Michigan -3, Auburn -1.5, Jacksonville State -3, Temple -2, Kentucky -2, Notre Dame -2.5, Maryland -2, UTSA -3, Middle Tennessee -2, Central Michigan -3, South Alabama -2, Kansas -2.5, Air Force -3, UAB -2, Arkansas State -3, Colorado -3, Oklahoma -1.5, App State -2, Oregon -4, Texas Tech -3, Liberty -2, Kent State -3, Wyoming -3, James Madison -2.5, Colorado State -2, Georgia State -1, UTEP -2.5, Fresno State -2, Alabama -1.5, Penn State -2, NC State -2, Kansas State -1.5, Wisconsin -1, Charlotte -4 (Brown inj.), San Diego State -2

Injury: Utah -5 (Rising)*, 

* – if out

Some notes on the biggest movers:

USC +4: The Trojans are legit, fam. D’Anton Lynn’s defense should only get better and Lincoln Riley has another star QB in Miller Moss. This is a second straight week with a big USC bump for me. Let’s see if I have them priced right now.

Northern Illinois +3.5: Even though I grew up in MAC country and went to a MAC school, I feel like this is the hardest conference in the country to rate. The Huskies deserve a big bump for beating Notre Dame. I don’t know if they’re any good, but they were good this past weekend.

Indiana +3: I know that Indiana has played two overmatched teams to this point, but Curt Cignetti has this team believing and there are a lot of James Madison transfers that he knows inside and out. (Unrelated, JMU looked terrible last week)

Arizona State +3: Another week, another bump for the Fightin’ Kenny Dillinghams. Cam Skattebo ran all over Mississippi State and this looks like a much different team.

Troy -5: Woof. I know Memphis is pretty good, but another adjustment needed to be made to the Trojans.

Oregon -4: This is a team I’ll be watching closely. Right now, they deserved a sizable downgrade. Maybe that’ll change if Dillon Gabriel and the offense can get in sync, but they are not on the same page at all right now.

SMU -4: I wrote last week that “one could be an outlier; two is likely a pattern”. There’s a pattern here with SMU and it is NOT a good one.

Charlotte -4: Biff Poggi said in his postgame that Florida transfer Max Brown suffered a serious injury and he’s definitely out for next week (and probably more). There was a lot of hope that Brown would be a dude. We may never know, but I know Charlotte gets a downgrade.

Wyoming -3: I know Idaho only lost to Oregon by 10 two weeks ago and maybe they’re a decent team, but Wyoming is a dumpster fire right now.

Michigan -3: If Ohio State doesn’t beat this version of Michigan, Ryan Day should be fired on the field postgame. Or shipped to Siberia.

Air Force -3: Um, what the hell happened in Colorado Springs? I’m willing to chalk it up to San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo knowing the option and that opponent very well to some degree, but not the full degree.

Texas Tech -3: A week after barely scraping by against Abilene Christian, Texas Tech got punked by Washington State. The weird part? The Red Raiders had 491 yards of offense and only scored 16 points.

Kent State -3: Saint Francis (PA) is not exactly a FCS powerhouse.

Arkansas State -3: The Red Wolves should have lost to Central Arkansas two weeks ago. They maybe should have lost to Tulsa this past week.

I had more downgrades of -3. I guess I’d rather be low on teams than high on teams at this stage.

Here are my Week 3 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
9/12	Arizona State	Texas State	+4.5
9/13	UNLV	Kansas	-8.5
	Arizona	Kansas State	-4.5
9/14	Oklahoma State	Tulsa	+23
	North Texas	Texas Tech	-11.5
	Alabama	Wisconsin	+14
	Central Michigan	Illinois	-18.5
	Memphis	Florida State	-3.5
	Cincinnati	Miami (OH)	PK
	Louisiana Tech	NC State	-27.5
	LSU	South Carolina	+12.5
	Arkansas State	Michigan	-26
	Boston College	Missouri	-19
	UMass	Buffalo	-5
	Coastal Carolina	Temple	+18
	Texas A&M	Florida	+5.5
	Washington State	Washington (2 pt HFA)	-11
	Oregon	Oregon State	+17
	West Virginia	Pitt	+1.5
	Ball State	Miami (FL)	-32
	Tulane	Oklahoma	-13
	Nevada	Minnesota	-14
	Notre Dame	Purdue	+16.5
	App State	East Carolina	+4
	Troy	Iowa	-25
	UAB	Arkansas	-18
	Utah (w/ Rising (5 pts)	Utah State	+23.5
	Virginia Tech	Old Dominion	+13.5
	UTEP	Liberty	-26
	UConn	Duke	-18
	FIU	FAU	-6
	Mississippi	Wake Forest	+19.5
	Western Kentucky	Middle Tennessee	+12
	Jacksonville State	Eastern Michigan	+0.5
	Vanderbilt	Georgia State	+5.5
	UTSA	Texas	-34.5
	Hawaii	Sam Houston State	+2
	South Florida	Southern Miss	+11.5
	Toledo	Mississippi State	-8
	New Mexico	Auburn	-27.5
	Air Force	Baylor	-13.5
	UCF	TCU	-6.5
	Georgia	Kentucky	+20.5
	Colorado	Colorado State	+10
	Indiana	UCLA	-1
	Kent State	Tennessee	-44.5
	Rice	Houston	-9
	Maryland	Virginia	+1.5
	BYU	Wyoming	+9
	New Mexico State	Fresno State	-17.5
	San Diego State	Cal	-14.5
	Kennesaw State	San Jose State	-16.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Arizona +7 (+4.5) at Kansas State: Tulane gave Kansas State everything they could handle and very well could have won that game. I know Arizona didn’t look great last week, but they’re intriguing going to The Little Apple on Friday night.

Memphis +6 (+3.5) at Florida State: Mike Norvell’s old team is in Tallahassee this week. The Seminoles are coming off of a much-needed bye. I have some potential line value here, but it is tricky to fade a good coach off a bye. That said, what if FSU is just bad?

NC State -21 (-27.5) vs. Louisiana Tech: Look, I have not been impressed with the Wolfpack at all. That being said, Louisiana Tech has one data point against Nicholls and it wasn’t a good one.

LSU -7 (-12.5) at South Carolina: College Gameday is in Columbia and Williams-Brice Stadium is an awesome place for a game. I know we want to give SC a big boost for the win over Kentucky, but the Gamecocks had five yards per play and a pick six. That was not totally the blowout that the final score suggested it was. And they got VERY lucky to beat Old Dominion two weeks ago.

Washington -4 (-11) vs. Washington State: Even if I didn’t give UDub two points of HFA for playing this one in Seattle at Lumen Field, it’s still one of my biggest overlays of the week. I don’t think Jedd Fisch has really shown anything yet and they’ve won by a combined score of 65-12 over Weber State and Eastern Michigan. Hold last week against EMU against them if you want, but they had 8.8 yards per play and Will Rogers was 21-of-26 for 261 yards and four TD.

Western Kentucky -7 (-12.5) at Middle Tennessee: I think MTSU is one of the worst teams in the nation. WKU is definitely not Ole Miss, but the Blue Raiders were outgained by Tennessee Tech in the opener.

TCU -1.5 (-6.5) vs. UCF: This may be an error on my part, but I haven’t really moved TCU or UCF much, so this one of those games about priors. I feel like I’ve gotta trust them in this spot.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.