Week 6 College Football Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Rocking-chair winners are hard to find in the NFL, a league in which most games are played close to the number and turn into a fourth-quarter sweat against the spread. Those who bet on the Buccaneers-Falcons game Thursday night know exactly how it feels. College football is a lot looser and more volatile. I found two blowout winners last Saturday with Kansas State and UNLV. It seemed Alabama would be another easy one before the Crimson Tide blew a 28-0 lead and ultimately came back to beat Georgia 41-34 in a thriller. The result was my first positive Saturday of the season, and here’s hoping for a repeat performance (and some good luck) with these seven Week 6 college football best bets:

 

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Michigan at Washington (-1.5)

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

The Wolverines (4-1) are ranked No. 10, but are they fraudulent or worthy? Michigan’s ranking is based more on the reputation of last season’s national championship team which defeated Washington in the title game. Both teams look much different in this rematch, and the Huskies are unranked home favorites for good reasons.

The quarterback switch to Alex Orji two weeks ago has not changed much for the Wolverines, who have a one-dimensional offense. Orji passed for 32 yards in a 27-24 victory over USC prior to passing for 86 yards in a 27-24 victory over Minnesota. Michigan is surviving with its running attack and defense, but that formula seems unsustainable without the threat of the pass.

The biggest edge favoring the Huskies is veteran quarterback Will Rogers, who has completed 74.8 percent of his passes with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions. Rogers is passing for 270 yards per game, and running back Jonah Coleman has topped 100 rushing yards in three games. Washington deserved a better fate when it rolled up 521 total yards and allowed 299 in a 21-18 loss at Rutgers last week.

Michigan played its first five games in Ann Arbor and beat three weak opponents. The Wolverines’ first road test is one they figure to fail. The Huskies have a far superior quarterback, and their home-field advantage is significant.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Washington -1.5

Alabama (-23) at Vanderbilt

Saturday, 4:15 p.m. (SEC)

Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe was the difference-maker, as I expected, in the victory over then-No. 2 Georgia. Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards and two touchdowns and added 117 rushing yards and two touchdowns. After the most emotional game of the season so far, this should be a letdown spot for Alabama.

Vanderbilt is not a hapless team, beating Virginia Tech in overtime and losing to Missouri in overtime on the road. Gritty quarterback Diego Pavia has accounted for 1,000 total yards (721 passing, 279 rushing) and eight touchdowns with no interceptions. The Commodores once crooned the hit song, “Just to Be Close to You,” and that’s what we need from the home ‘dog. Vandy is always a risky bet, so I’ll play it safer by splitting a unit on the first half and game.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Vanderbilt +23 and 1H +12.5 (half-unit each)

Virginia Tech (-8) at Stanford

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC)

Some teams get caught looking ahead. The Hokies might get caught looking back and dwelling on the one that got away, a controversial 38-34 loss at Miami in which the Hurricanes overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Kyron Drones is not a great passer, yet he’s an important part of Virginia Tech’s strong ground attack that Stanford might not be able to stop. Cardinal quarterback Ashton Daniels is questionable with a lower-body injury, but Justin Lamson is a capable backup. Stanford coach Troy Taylor already led his team to one ACC upset two weeks ago at Syracuse.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Stanford +8

USC (-8.5) at Minnesota

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (BTN)

Five minutes into the third quarter last week, USC trailed Wisconsin 21-10. The Trojans, 15-point home favorites, rallied to win 38-21 and got the cover thanks to an interception return for a touchdown with five minutes remaining. On the same day, Minnesota’s late rally came up short in a loss at Michigan. The Gophers showed some fight and will again as home ‘dogs.

The biggest difference between these teams is USC’s surplus of playmakers, from quarterback Miller Moss to running back Woody Marks to receivers Ja’Kobi Lane and Zachariah Branch. Still, this is a big number the Trojans are being asked to cover on the Big Ten road. Minnesota’s defense is no pushover, and the Gophers are good enough offensively behind improving quarterback Max Brosmer and running back Darius Taylor.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Minnesota +8.5

Hawaii at San Diego State (-2)

Saturday, 8:00 p.m. (CBSSN)

It’s obvious the Aztecs (1-3) are nothing special, but this is a Mountain West opponent they should beat. San Diego State’s most effective weapon is running back Marquez Cooper, who has 96 carries for 474 yards. Last week, Cooper ran for 111 yards and freshman quarterback Danny O’Neil had his best outing while passing for 246 yards in a 22-21 loss at Central Michigan. 

I’ll side with the team that can run the ball against the team that can only throw it. Hawaii has found a good combo with quarterback Brayden Schager and receiver Pofele Ashlock, but that’s their only path to victory. The rushing attack is averaging 96 yards per game and 3.9 per carry against a weak schedule. While the Warriors have home wins over FCS opponents Delaware State and Northern Iowa, they scored only 13 points against a bad UCLA team and got blown out at Sam Houston.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: San Diego State -2

Miami (FL) (-10.5) at California

Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

A week after barely escaping a stunning upset against Virginia Tech, the Hurricanes hit the road for a night game in Berkeley, where things have been known to get crazy. A year ago, the Golden Bears went down 50-49 in a shootout with Caleb Williams-led USC and beat Cam Ward-led Washington State 42-39. Those high scores don’t show it, but Cal coach Justin Wilcox is a defensive wizard. Wilcox had a bye week to prepare and will need to pull out a few tricks to slow Ward, who transferred to Miami in the offseason and is red hot with 18 touchdown passes in five games.

Cal, 3-1 with a win at Auburn, outgained Florida State 410-284 on the road in its only loss. Fernando Mendoza is not going to trade shots with Ward, but the Bears can use running backs Jaydn Ott and Jaivian Thomas and Wilcox’s defense to keep the game close. Maybe the Hurricanes will have too much offensive firepower. Or maybe Wilcox’s coaching edge will shine bright at night. This is a tricky test for Miami.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: California +10.5

Texas Tech at Arizona (-6.5)

Saturday, 11:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The latest game on the board takes place Saturday night in Tucson, where the Wildcats are riding high following an upset win at Utah. After a big win, beware of the letdown. Arizona was not that impressive in its other three games, including a 31-7 loss at Kansas State.

The Red Raiders have been riding a rollercoaster, but their offense has been up to the challenge by scoring a total of 74 points in recent victories over Arizona State and Cincinnati. Texas Tech’s big three of quarterback Behren Morton (14 TD passes, two INTs), running back Tahj Brooks and receiver Josh Kelly make this ‘dog dangerous in a shootout.

Week 6 College Football Best Bet: Texas Tech +7 (-130)

For more Week 6 college football analysis, visit the Week 6 College Football Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.

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