Week 7 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 7 College Football Power Ratings:

You heard it here first. Last week, I wrote about how many road favorites I had in my College Football Power Ratings and how many there were in the betting markets. I had 26 out of 49 games. The betting market had 23 when lines opened on Sunday. By game day, there were 22 and a lot of them were double-digit favorites.

We had five top-11 upsets and, to be honest, these are the types of weeks I hate. I certainly appreciate chaos and uncertainty in college football because the variance level of the sport is among the many things that make it so fun and compelling. But, it is a tricky week for updating power ratings. You have to respect and appreciate great performances from underdogs and properly punish bad efforts from favorites, but those are usually outliers. You have to thread the needle between acknowledging something that shouldn’t have happened and analyze the reasons why, but you also don’t want to treat it as if it is a predictable outcome moving forward.

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For example, Vanderbilt beat Alabama. I’d still have Alabama a 23-point favorite if we ran the game back today (I had it -30, fyi, so that hurt). Arkansas would still be an 8.5-point underdog if they played Tennessee again. But, this is precisely why you do power ratings. To avoid overreactions. The oddsmakers aren’t suddenly going to favor Arkansas because they beat Tennessee. Will the line be -14 again? Probably not. And maybe 5.5 points is even too big of a swing in my numbers. But, you don’t want to discredit the fact that poop happens, to use the professional term.

For what it’s worth, I have 23 road favorites again this week. More college football chaos may be on the way.

Here are my Week 7 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Ohio State	93	3.5
2	Texas	92	3.5
3	Georgia	91	3
4	Alabama	88	3.5
5	Oregon	87.5	3.5
6	Tennessee	87	3.5
7	Clemson	86	3
8	Mississippi	83.5	3.5
9	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
10	Miami (Florida)	83	2
11	Penn State	83	3.5
12	LSU	81	3.5
13	Indiana	80.5	1.5
14	Iowa State	80.5	2
15	Texas A&M	79.5	3
16	SMU	79	3.5
17	USC	78	2
18	Utah	78	3.5
19	Boise State	77.5	2.5
20	Kansas State	77.5	3.5
21	Louisville	77.5	3.5
22	Iowa	77	2.5
23	Arkansas	76.5	2
24	Nebraska	76.5	2
25	Oklahoma	75.5	3.5
26	Kentucky	75	2.5
27	Michigan	75	3.5
28	Missouri	75	2
29	Pittsburgh	74.5	2
30	Washington	74.5	2
31	Auburn	73.5	2
32	BYU	73.5	2
33	Florida	73.5	2
34	Texas Tech	73.5	2.5
35	Tulane	73.5	2
36	Virginia Tech	73.5	2
37	Georgia Tech	73	1
38	Arizona	72.5	2
39	California	72.5	2
40	West Virginia	72.5	3
41	UNLV	71.5	2
42	South Carolina	71	2.5
43	Colorado	70.5	2
44	Rutgers	70.5	2
45	UCF	70.5	3
46	Oklahoma State	70	3.5
47	Wisconsin	70	2
48	Minnesota	69.5	2
49	Illinois	69	2
50	Maryland	69	2
51	TCU	69	2.5
52	Virginia	69	2
53	Army	68.5	2
54	Cincinnati	68.5	2
55	Memphis	68.5	2
56	Michigan State	68.5	2.5
57	Boston College	68	1.5
58	Navy	68	2
59	Syracuse	68	2.5
60	Arizona State	67.5	2
61	Kansas	67.5	2
62	North Carolina	67.5	2.5
63	Florida State	67	2
64	Washington State	67	2.5
65	Louisiana-Lafayette	66.5	3
66	Baylor	66	2
67	Texas State	64.5	2
68	Fresno State	64	2.5
69	James Madison	64	3.5
70	Vanderbilt	64	1
71	Liberty	63.5	3
72	Oregon State	63.5	3.5
73	South Florida	63.5	2
74	Duke	63	3
75	Wake Forest	63	2.5
76	Bowling Green	62.5	2
77	Toledo	62.5	2.5
78	UCLA	62.5	2
79	Northwestern	62	1.5
80	South Alabama	62	2.5
81	Jacksonville State	61.5	2.5
82	Houston	61	2
83	Stanford	60.5	1
84	Sam Houston State	60	2
85	North Texas	59.5	2
86	San Jose State	59.5	2
87	Coastal Carolina	59	2.5
88	Marshall	59	2
89	Miami (Ohio)	59	3
90	UTSA	59	3.5
91	Mississippi State	58.5	2
92	Western Kentucky	58.5	2.5
93	Arkansas State	58	2
94	Northern Illinois	58	1.5
95	Georgia Southern	57.5	2
96	Old Dominion	57.5	2
97	East Carolina	57	2
98	North Carolina State	57	3.5
99	Appalachian State	56.5	2.5
100	Connecticut	56.5	2
101	Nevada	56.5	1.5
102	Purdue	55.5	2
103	Georgia State	54	2
104	Western Michigan	53.5	2
105	Ohio	53	2
106	Colorado State	52	1
107	Eastern Michigan	52	2
108	Charlotte	51.5	1
109	New Mexico	51	1
110	Utah State	51	2
111	Air Force	50	2.5
112	Hawai’i	50	2
113	Rice	49.5	2
114	Wyoming	49.5	2.5
115	Louisiana-Monroe	49	2
116	San Diego State	49	2
117	Troy	49	2.5
118	Central Michigan	48.5	2
119	Tulsa	48.5	1
120	Buffalo	48	1
121	UAB	48	2.5
122	Florida Atlantic	47.5	2
123	Massachusetts	46.5	1
124	Louisiana Tech	46	2
125	Temple	46	2
126	Akron	45.5	1
127	Southern Mississippi	45.5	2
128	UTEP	44.5	2
129	Ball State	44	2
130	Florida International	44	1
131	Middle Tennessee	43.5	2
132	New Mexico State	40.5	2.5
133	Kennesaw State	36.5	2
134	Kent State	35.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: SMU +8, Jacksonville State +4, Houston +1.5, Michigan State +1, North Carolina +1.5, Charlotte +5, Auburn +1.5, Tulane +2, Coastal Carolina +1, Marshall +2, Akron +1, Virginia +1.5, Navy +2, Vanderbilt +5, Indiana +1.5, Boise State +2, Cal +2, Texas Tech +3.5, Arkansas +2, Army +7, West Virginia +1, Arkansas State +2, Washington +1, Sam Houston State +1.5, UNLV +1.5, Syracuse +1.5, Clemson +1, Florida +2.5, BYU +2

Down: Louisville -3, Kennesaw State -4.5, TCU -1.5, UCF -1.5, East Carolina -2.5, Georgia -2, UAB -5, Old Dominion -1, Western Michigan -1.5, App State -3, Bowling Green -2, Air Force -1, Alabama -2, Kansas -2.5, Miami (FL) -1, Arizona -3, Tennessee -2, Tulsa -2.5, Oklahoma State -3, USC -4, Michigan -1, Oregon State -2.5, Hawaii -2, Purdue -8, Penn State -1, Missouri -2, Mississippi -1.5, South Carolina -1.5, Baylor -1, Stanford -3, Southern Miss -2, Fresno State -2.5

Some notes on the biggest movers:

SMU +8: Massive market correction here. I had Louisville about a two-touchdown favorite in that game last week. Not only was that line off, but SMU won outright. I downgraded SMU too quickly early in the season and Rhett Lashlee has this thing going in the right direction, as the Mustangs are beating Power Four teams, something that they failed to do before this season.

Army +7: Another week, another set of upgrades to both Army and Navy (+2). It is a weird world to see Air Force playing terrible football and these two potentially on a crash course to play in the AAC Title Game.

Vanderbilt +5: Another market correction, but also a shout-out to Diego Pavia. Like I said above, I had Alabama -30 in that game. Not only was that line wrong, but the Tide lost outright. I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention to Vandy. Me and Kalen DeBoer, apparently.

Charlotte +5: A team that I’ve been reluctant to upgrade because of the Max Brown injury is Charlotte, but my lines have been off the last few weeks and this past week was the first time that they really had a statement performance.

Jacksonville State +4: The Gamecocks humiliated Kennesaw State on Friday night. My line was 9.5. The game closed 17.5. Sometimes I’m just a tad slow to update teams and I was slow on Jax State, who really has a good QB in dual-threat Tyler Huff.

Texas Tech +3.5: The Red Raiders are a team I’ve brought up a lot. In their one loss to Washington State, they still almost had 500 yards of offense. Yet, I was still too low on them. After a nice win over Arizona, I think I’ve put them closer to where they should be.

Purdue -8: This is a very, very bad football team. In two Big Ten games, they’ve been outscored 80-16. They’ve been beaten 184-44 by FBS teams. Ryan Walters may not last the season.

UAB -7: Trent Dilfer needs to go. What a failed experiment. Oh, and by the way, Bryant Vincent’s ULM Warhawks just beat James Madison. The administration really effed that one up.

Kennesaw State -4.5: Kent State and Kennesaw State should play in a bowl game. The Bemis Toilet Bowl. This is quite a race to the bottom.

USC -4: Boy, was I wrong about the Trojans. I got really excited about the win over LSU. Lincoln Riley’s teams are not handling Big Ten physicality well. I will say that the travel has been an issue for Big Ten teams going multiple time zones, so maybe USC gets right against Penn State this week?

Louisville -3: Market correction, but I’ve also been underwhelmed. I’m actually mad at myself because I felt like I wasn’t buying this team as much as others coming into the season. Then I didn’t trust it and bumped them up early. Shame on me.

Arizona -3: I guess Arizona really does miss Jedd Fisch more than I thought they would. This just isn’t the same team, despite still having Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan.

Stanford -3: The Ashton Daniels/Justin Lamson is a lot to overcome and a lot to overlook.

App State -3: I know the boys from Boone are going through a lot right now. And last week’s box score was a little bit misleading. But, this isn’t the same team either.

Oklahoma State -3: I’ve been chasing my tail with this team, but I’ll defer to my colleague Tyler Shoemaker who has been right all along about Alan Bowman. He stinks.

Here are my Week 7 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/8	FIU	Liberty	-22.5
10/9	New Mexico State	Jacksonville State	-23.5
10/10	Coastal Carolina	James Madison	-8.5
	Middle Tennessee	Louisiana Tech	-4.5
	UTEP	Western Kentucky	-16.5
10/11	Memphis	South Florida	+3
	Northwestern	Maryland	-9
	UNLV	Utah State	+18.5
	Utah	Arizona State	+8.5
10/12	Miami (OH)	Eastern Michigan	+5
	Iowa State	West Virginia	+5
	Marshall	Georgia Southern	-0.5
	Cal	Pitt	-4
	Vanderbilt	Kentucky	-13.5
	Syracuse	NC State	+7.5
	Missouri	UMass	+27.5
	Northern Illinois	Bowling Green	-6.5
	Akron	Western Michigan	-10
	Louisville	Virginia	+6.5
	Florida	Tennessee	-17
	Old Dominion	Georgia State	+1.5
	Ball State	Kent State	+6.5
	Clemson	Wake Forest	+20.5
	Mississippi State	Georgia	-35.5
	Cincinnati	UCF	-5
	Ohio	Central Michigan	+2.5
	Toledo	Buffalo	+13.5
	North Texas	Florida Atlantic	+10
	UTSA	Rice	+7.5
	Georgia Tech	North Carolina	+3
	UAB	Army	-22.5
	Southern Miss	Louisiana Monroe	-5.5
	Purdue	Illinois	-17.5
	Wisconsin	Rutgers	-2.5
	Kansas State	Colorado	+5
	Air Force	New Mexico	-2
	San Jose State	Colorado State	+6.5
	Arizona	BYU	-3
	Washington State	Fresno State	+0.5
	South Carolina	Alabama	-20.5
	Stanford	Notre Dame	-26.5
	Texas	Oklahoma (N – Dallas)	+16.5
	Mississippi	LSU	-1
	App State	Louisiana	-13
	San Diego State	Wyoming	-3
	Arkansas State	Texas State	-8.5
	Minnesota	UCLA	+5
	Ohio State	Oregon	+2
	Washington	Iowa	-5
	Oregon State	Nevada	+5.5
	Penn State	USC	+3
	Boise State	Hawaii	+25.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

South Florida +7 (+3) vs. Memphis: I don’t know what will happen to this game with Hurricane Milton barreling towards Tampa, so I’m not touching it. Expect this game to be moved.

Utah -4 (-8) vs. Arizona State: I have to be honest; I think Arizona State is a little bit overrated at this point. They’re winning games, but not with super impressive box scores. This might be a good spot to take Utah, though we never actually know if Cam Rising is playing or not.

Syracuse -4.5 (-7.5) at NC State: I guess it isn’t a great spot for Syracuse off the long travel and the overtime game, but it isn’t an ideal spot for a NC State team that has really underperformed this season.

Bowling Green -3 (-6.5) vs. Northern Illinois: I’m not going to hold Bowling Green’s lackluster effort against Akron against them. Nor will I hold the Old Dominion game against them coming off of Penn State and Texas A&M. I still think they’re the best team in this conference, even with an adjustment down on their power rating.

Toledo -9.5 (-13.5) at Buffalo: Buffalo had a moment against Northern Illinois, but the rest of the body of work is suspect at best. Toledo may very well be the class of the MAC after beating Miami (OH) while Bowling Green had issues with Akron.

Air Force +6.5 (+2) vs. New Mexico: My UNM power rating hasn’t been sharp all season, but I have aggressively downgraded Air Force this year and I still can’t get to this number. Quentin Hayes may have sparked a little life into the offense, at least in the passing game, so I think Air Force may be a play-on team this week.

Arkansas State +14 (+8.5) vs. Texas State: Arkansas State may be slowly turning it around. I’m not sure where Texas State is at right now. They got a little fortunate to cover last Thursday and Arky State beat South Alabama, though that box score was misleading. The Jaguars had some long drives end in failure.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.