Week 9 College Football Power Ratings and Predictions

Week 9 College Football Power Ratings:

It is an interesting time of the college football season. Coaches are getting fired, teams know where they stand, and what we see is probably more predictive of what we’re going to get the rest of the way. At least you would think so, given that we’re now through eight weeks of the season and every team has played at least six games.

Some teams have had their goals shifted. Making a bowl game is the best that some programs can do at this point, while others are surprising candidates for something more. Others are not going to meet their expectations and you wonder about the mindsets of those coaches and players as things progress forward.

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One thing I do want to address here is weather. These are raw power ratings based off of adjustments to my numbers on Sunday. No forecast is going to be reliable that far out, except for maybe the Tuesday night games. I’m not taking any of that stuff into account. These are just my valuations of teams and I go from there with my handicapping process, including adjusting for high or low totals and other parts of the qualitative handicap.

Be sure to check weather forecasts regularly. We’re reaching the point of the year when precipitation and wind can be much larger factors. Given some of the unique travel situations as a result of realignment, we could get some more games affected by the conditions than normal. We often take the weather for granted in September and early October, just assuming everything is copacetic. That may not be the case going forward.

One other thing I have noticed with my numbers this season is that they are disproportionately pointing me towards road favorites. I’m not entirely sure why. I don’t think my home-field calculations are that far off of the market and it shouldn’t lead to more than a disparity of maybe a couple of points if they are. It’s something I will look to correct on the fly this season and account for better next season.

Here are my Week 9 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Georgia	93	3
2	Ohio State	91	3.5
3	Texas	90	3.5
4	Clemson	88.5	3
5	Oregon	88.5	3.5
6	Mississippi	84.5	3.5
7	Alabama	83.5	3.5
8	Notre Dame	83.5	3.5
9	LSU	83	3.5
10	Miami (Florida)	83	2
11	Penn State	83	3.5
12	Tennessee	82.5	3.5
13	SMU	81	3.5
14	Indiana	80.5	1.5
15	Iowa State	80.5	2
16	Texas A&M	79.5	3
17	Kansas State	78.5	3.5
18	Boise State	77.5	2.5
19	BYU	76.5	2
20	Iowa	76	2.5
21	South Carolina	76	2.5
22	Washington	76	2
23	Florida	75.5	2
24	Virginia Tech	75.5	2
25	Wisconsin	75.5	2
26	Missouri	75	2
27	Louisville	74.5	3.5
28	USC	74.5	2
29	Army	73.5	2
30	Auburn	73.5	2
31	Kentucky	73.5	2.5
32	Tulane	73.5	2
33	Michigan	73	3.5
34	California	72.5	2
35	Colorado	72.5	2
36	Nebraska	72.5	2
37	Arkansas	71.5	2
38	Cincinnati	71.5	2
39	UNLV	71.5	2
40	Pittsburgh	71	2
41	TCU	71	2.5
42	Georgia Tech	70.5	1
43	Michigan State	70.5	2.5
44	UCF	70.5	3
45	Virginia	70.5	2
46	Baylor	70	2
47	Navy	70	2
48	Oklahoma State	70	3.5
49	Washington State	70	2.5
50	Minnesota	69.5	2
51	Oklahoma	69.5	3.5
52	West Virginia	69.5	3
53	Arizona State	69	2
54	Illinois	69	2
55	Arizona	68.5	2
56	Texas Tech	68.5	2.5
57	Vanderbilt	68	1
58	Kansas	67.5	2
59	North Carolina	67.5	2.5
60	Utah	67.5	3.5
61	Maryland	67	2
62	Syracuse	67	2.5
63	James Madison	66.5	3.5
64	Memphis	66.5	2
65	Louisiana-Lafayette	65.5	3
66	Texas State	65.5	2
67	Boston College	65	1.5
68	North Carolina State	64.5	3.5
69	Northwestern	63.5	1.5
70	Western Kentucky	63.5	2.5
71	Duke	63	3
72	Florida State	63	2
73	Rutgers	62.5	2
74	UCLA	62.5	2
75	Jacksonville State	61.5	2.5
76	Mississippi State	61.5	2
77	Houston	61	2
78	Marshall	61	2
79	Oregon State	61	3.5
80	Wake Forest	60.5	2.5
81	Fresno State	60	2.5
82	Toledo	60	2.5
83	Georgia Southern	59.5	2
84	Old Dominion	59.5	2
85	South Alabama	59	2.5
86	Liberty	58.5	3
87	Northern Illinois	58.5	1.5
88	South Florida	58.5	2
89	North Texas	58	2
90	Appalachian State	57.5	2.5
91	Bowling Green	57.5	2
92	Nevada	57.5	1.5
93	Sam Houston State	57.5	2
94	Stanford	57.5	1
95	Coastal Carolina	57	2.5
96	Colorado State	57	1
97	Connecticut	56.5	2
98	Arkansas State	56	2
99	Miami (Ohio)	56	3
100	Purdue	55.5	2
101	New Mexico	55	1
102	East Carolina	54	2
103	UTSA	54	3.5
104	San Jose State	53.5	2
105	Western Michigan	53.5	2
106	Ohio	53	2
107	Utah State	53	2
108	Charlotte	51.5	1
109	Florida Atlantic	51.5	2
110	Rice	51.5	2
111	Troy	51.5	2.5
112	Georgia State	51	2
113	Louisiana-Monroe	51	2
114	Buffalo	50.5	1
115	Eastern Michigan	50.5	2
116	Hawai’i	50	2
117	Florida International	49	1
118	San Diego State	49	2
119	Central Michigan	48.5	2
120	Temple	48	2
121	Akron	47.5	1
122	Air Force	47	2.5
123	Wyoming	47	2.5
124	Louisiana Tech	46.5	2
125	Massachusetts	46.5	1
126	Southern Mississippi	44.5	2
127	Tulsa	44.5	1
128	UAB	44	2.5
129	UTEP	41.5	2
130	Middle Tennessee	40.5	2
131	Ball State	40	2
132	Kent State	37.5	2
133	New Mexico State	36.5	2.5
134	Kennesaw State	32.5	2

Here are this week’s Power Ratings adjustments:

Up: Troy +2.5, Western Kentucky +2, FIU +3, Virginia Tech +2, Marshall +2, Nevada +1, UCF +2, Wake Forest +1.5, Temple +2, Old Dominion +2, Navy +2, Virginia +1.5, Kansas State +1, Baylor +4, Kent State +2, South Carolina +2, Wisconsin +3, NC State +3, SMU +2, LSU +2, Georgia +2, Oregon State +2.5, Michigan State +2, Southern Miss +1, Georgia Southern +2, Ball State +1, Washington +3, TCU +2, Louisiana Monroe +2, Mississippi State +3, Colorado State +2

Down: Kennesaw State -2, Louisiana Tech -1.5, Boston College -3, Georgia State -3, Florida State -4, Louisville -2, Tulsa -4, Texas State -2, Alabama -2, Georgia Tech -2.5, Arizona State -1, West Virginia -3, Memphis -2, Texas Tech -5, Bowling Green -1.5, Oklahoma -4, Rutgers -5, USC -3.5, Michigan -2, Utah -6, Texas -2, Nebraska -4, Sam Houston State -2.5, Pitt -2.5, Northern Illinois -2, East Carolina -3, South Alabama -3, Arkansas -5, Stanford -3, Fresno State -2, Iowa -3

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Baylor +4: Way, way, way off on the Baylor/Texas Tech game last week. My line was 10. Market closed 4.5 or 5. Baylor dropped 59 points. Texas Tech comes up later.

NC State +3: NC State may not have deserved the win over Cal, but this team is definitely better than it was early in the season. Second straight week I’ve given them a good bump.

FIU +3: Seems like Mike MacIntyre is making a little bit of progress with these guys.

Wisconsin +3: Speaking of making progress, Wisconsin has been playing extremely well for a while now, even with Tyler Van Dyke out.

Mississippi State +3: It seems like I got too low on this team early in the season as well and had to make a correction to catch up with the market.

Washington +3: I still don’t know what to think of this team. My Washington/Indiana line was off substantially before I peeled back another Hoosiers bump because of the Kurtis Rourke injury. Maybe the loss of Rourke warrants an adjustment on Indiana, but Tayven Jackson and Justice Ellison both looked pretty damn interesting.

Utah -6: Man, things are bad in Salt Lake City. This was a team that should’ve been in great shape to win the Big 12. Now I’d consider them a dog to make a bowl.

Texas Tech -5: The aforementioned Texas Tech drop. The market felt like a set of skeptics about this team. I saw why last week.

Rutgers -5: The market has also been very clear regarding its position on Rutgers and it is not favorable. Tons of money poured in on UCLA last week and that money was correct. Losing outright at home to the Bruins is a very bad look.

Arkansas -5: It seems as though I was slow to adjust on Arkansas. It’s really hard with these mid-tier teams in major conferences because they have the talent to do good things some weeks, but don’t do it or play awful in others.

Florida State -4: The Seminoles actually had a really good defensive effort against Duke, but the offense is just offensive.

Tulsa -4: This team is baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad.

Nebraska -4: I took Nebraska last week after looking at Indiana’s strength of schedule. I conveniently pushed my own narrative to ignore Nebraska’s. Oops. Correction made.

Oklahoma -4: Things are not good in Norman. This is a decent defense, but the offense is a complete and total disaster.

Here are my Week 9 College Football Lines

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Line
10/22	Sam Houston State	FIU	+7.5
	UTEP	Louisiana Tech	-7
10/23	Liberty	Kennesaw State	+24
	Middle Tennessee	Jacksonville State	-23.5
10/24	Syracuse	Pitt	-6
	Georgia Southern	Old Dominion	-2
10/25	Louisville	Boston College	+8
	Rutgers	USC	-14
	Boise State	UNLV	+4
10/26	Bowling Green	Toledo	-5
	Florida State	Miami (FL)	-22
	BYU	UCF	+3
	North Carolina	Virginia	-5
	Eastern Michigan	Akron	+2
	Southern Miss	James Madison	-25.5
	Northern Illinois	Ball State	+16.5
	Georgia Tech	Virginia Tech	-7
	Buffalo	Ohio	-4.5
	Georgia State	App State	-9
	Kent State	Western Michigan	-18
	SMU	Duke	+15
	Central Michigan	Miami (OH)	-10.5
	Temple	East Carolina	-8
	Auburn	Kentucky	-2.5
	Rice	UConn	-7
	Notre Dame	Navy (N – Meadowlands)	+13.5
	Troy	Arkansas State	-6.5
	Michigan State	Michigan	-6
	Maryland	Minnesota	-4.5
	Washington	Indiana	-6
	Texas Tech	TCU	-5
	Louisiana Monroe	South Alabama	-10.5
	LSU	Texas A&M	+0.5
	Utah	Houston	+4.5
	Oklahoma	Mississippi	-18.5
	Oklahoma State	Baylor	-2
	Tulane	North Texas	+13.5
	Missouri	Alabama	-12
	Charlotte	Memphis	-17
	Texas	Vanderbilt	+21
	Kansas	Kansas State	-14.5
	Arkansas	Mississippi State	+8
	UTSA	Tulsa	+8.5
	Cincinnati	Colorado	-3
	New Mexico	Colorado State	-3
	Utah State	Wyoming	+3.5
	West Virginia	Arizona	-1
	Oregon State	Cal	-13.5
	Washington State	San Diego State	+19
	San Jose State	Fresno State	-9
	Wake Forest	Stanford	+2
	Penn State	Wisconsin	+5.5
	Northwestern	Iowa	-15
	Nebraska	Ohio State	-22
	Illinois	Oregon	-23
	Nevada	Hawaii	+5.5

Some games to consider based on the differences between the betting market and my lines

Toledo -3 (-5) vs. Bowling Green: Rivalry game here. Bowling Green has been dropping rather quickly in my power ratings of late. It’s not a big edge and there are no key numbers, but the Falcons are kind of in a prove-it spot to me.

Northern Illinois -11.5 (-16.5) at Ball State: This is what I’m talking about. I keep getting ugly road favorites as games with overlays. I do have some very low home-field advantages on teams like Ball State, but not “be off by five points” low. I also find the Ball State activity, both on and against, rather odd this season.

SMU -11 (-15) at Duke: Another one with a road favorite the makes the list. Maybe a fundamental flaw. Maybe a low rating on Duke, which was the case last week against Florida State. But, the Blue Devils really haven’t impressed me at all this season.

LSU +3 (-0.5) at Texas A&M: The road theme again. I do really think LSU is in better form than Texas A&M right now, though. And the Aggies definitely have my respect from a HFA standpoint based on the definition I use.

Tulane -8 (-13.5) at North Texas: Yeah, another one. Like I said, I think I’m flawed somewhere. That being said, North Texas is still really bad on defense and I think Tulane’s a very good team.

Kansas State -10 (-14.5) vs. Kansas: Hey, a home team! Kansas has been on my fade list all season. I’ll do it again here.

New Mexico +6 (+3) at Colorado State: A road dog this time at least. I haven’t been able to nail down Colorado State at any point this season. This is another example. And I’ve been wrong with most examples, so I’m treading lightly.

Nevada -2.5 (-5.5) at Hawaii: I’ve also noticed a lot of road favorites in the G5 conferences. This is another one. Washington State is as well. I’ll do some digging and hopefully figure it out.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.