Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks and predictions

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Austin Eckroat became the fourth first-time winner in nine events (Nick Dunlap, The American Express; Matthieu Pavon, Farmers Insurance Open; Jake Knapp, Mexico Open) on the PGA Tour in 2024. Eckroat, a 110-1 pre-tournament price, is in his second season on the tour and won his first title in his 50th career start. 

Eckroat shot 17 under (267) last weekend to win the Cognizant Classic by three strokes over Erik Van Rooyen and Min Woo Lee. He led the field for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee + Strokes Gained: Approach) and Greens In Regulation, plus was third in the field for Driving Accuracy (45 of 56 fairways hit; 80.4%).

Rounding out the top 5 at PGA National was a five-way tie for fourth consisting of Shane Lowry, KH Lee, David Skinns, last week’s winner Knapp, and Cameron Young, who was this column’s high finisher. 

The PGA Tour has two events this week, but the primary event is the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club in Orlando, Fla. 

OWGR No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+650) won here at Bay Hill in 2022 and has three top-6 finishes in five events in 2024. 

Rory McIlroy (9-1) has also won at Bay Hill (2018) and was the runner-up last year. He disappointed as the market favorite last week finishing T-21. 

Viktor Hovland (14-1) was the co-runner-up here to Scheffler in 2022 and probably should have won the event, having held a four-shot lead at the turn in the third round that year. 

Southern Californians Xander Schauffele (16-1), Patrick Cantlay (18-1) and Max Homa (28-1) do not typically pop in Florida, although Cantlay finished T-4 here last year. 

Ludvig Åberg (20-1) finished T-24 on debut here last year while still a collegian at Texas Tech but has since turned professional and has won twice (Omega European Masters and RSM Classic) since. 

Jordan Spieth has finished fourth here in each of his last two appearances and is priced at 22-1 along with Sam Burns.

Young (25-1) finished T-4 last week at PGA National and was in the top 10 here last year. 

The mid-range of the market includes Collin Morikawa (28-1), Justin Thomas (30-1), Tommy Fleetwood (30-1), Will Zalatoris (30-1), Matt Fitzpatrick (33-1) and 2016 event champion Jason Day (40-1).

Defending champion Kurt Kitayama is priced at 60-1. 

The Event   

The Arnold Palmer Invitational began in essence in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open in Orlando. In 1979, the tournament moved to its present home at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Arnold Palmer owned the club until his death in 2016. His daughter and son-in-law, Amy and Roy Saunders, now own and operate the club. Palmer served as host from 1979 until his death and the event took on his name in 2007. 

This year, the API is a limited field of 69 players for a “Signature Event.”

With this event being held a week before The Players Championship, this week’s field has an even more international flavor than normal. Non-American players have won here five of the last seven years. No player has won more here than Tiger Woods, who has been victorious here eight times (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013) but is not participating this week. Other major champions who have emerged victorious at Bay Hill Club include Scottie Scheffler (2022), Bryson DeChambeau (2021), Francesco Molinari (2019), Rory McIlroy (2018), Jason Day (2016), Ernie Els (1998, 2010), Vijay Singh (2007), Phil Mickelson (1997), Ben Crenshaw (1993), Fred Couples (1992), Tom Kite (1982, 1989), Paul Azinger (1988), Payne Stewart (1987) and Fuzzy Zoeller (1985). 

The Field

The 69-player field is comprised of players that meet the following criteria:

• Top 50 from the 2023 FedEx Cup Points List
• Aon Next 10 (Pavon, Knapp, Åberg, Eckroat, List, Van Rooyen, Murray, Bezuidenhout, Zalatoris, Thomas)
• Aon Swing 5 (Välimäki, Lee, Pan, Jaeger, Lower)
• Current year tournament winners (Dunlap)
• Sponsor exemptions (Højgaard, Lowry, Scott, Simpson)
• Arnold Palmer Cup Award Winner (Ford)

54 of the Top 55 eligible players (Tony Finau not playing this week) are at Bay Hill this week. 

The cut is set at the low 50 players and ties plus any player within 10 shots of the 36-hole lead.

The Course 

The Bay Hill Club & Lodge was designed in 1961 by Dick Wilson and Bob Simmons and was owned by Arnold Palmer, who also did several redesigns, from 1974 to 2016. The stretching 7,466-yard, par-72 parklands features a set of tough par-4s plus three of the par-5s measure over 550 yards but are scoreable. The par-3s, which are the longest on tour, average almost 220 yards. 

This is a course that ordinarily tests all facets of a player’s game and especially last year in windy conditions when it ranked as the most difficult on tour with an average round of +1.21. Bay Hill features three inches of overseeded rye rough plus TifEagle Bermuda green complexes that will run fast at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and could get up to 14 on Sunday. In 2015, all holes and green complexes were re-grassed with the putting surfaces, which average around 7,500 square feet (fourth largest on tour). The track is heavily bunkered (84) and has water in play on nine holes. Two years ago, most of the sloping run-off areas from around the greens had been replaced with thick three-inch rough.

With the recent changes, Bay Hill has been rated in the top 10 in terms of the toughest courses on tour in six of the last seven years.  The fairways were widened, and some trees were removed so driving is easier than before, but approach shots, shots around the green and putting provide most of the challenge here. The conditions should be relatively firm and fast. The wind wreaked havoc in 2020 and Bay Hill, like last year, also ranked as the toughest course on the tour that year largely because of it. It’s obviously recommended to check the weather forecast each week, but especially this week. 

Bay Hill features one of the toughest sets of par-3s and par-4s on tour. Each of the four par-3s is over 200 yards long (216-yard average), and in total, averages 0.16 strokes over par. Five of the par-4s are over 450 yards long, and some play even longer because players have to club down and choose to lay up. Seven of these par-4s have bogey-or-worse rates higher than 20%.

With scoring so difficult, especially on the par-3s, the four par-5s take on greater importance this week. They have a birdie-or-better average of over 38% each and are reachable in two shots. They definitely give the longer hitters a chance to separate themselves from the field and will play a major role in who emerges victorious this week.

Bay Hill may have the toughest two-hole closing stretch on tour. The par-3 17th is a 221-yard tee shot often hit into a stiff north wind over water to a well-bunkered green. The hole has a birdie rate of only 8.7%. The 18th is a 458-yard par-4 that begins with a nervy tee shot also hit into the prevailing north wind that brings water into play on the right for the longer hitters and out of bounds into play on the left for shorter hitters. Bunkers surround the back and left of the green to punish any players looking for other places to bail out.

Correlated courses to Bay Hill include PGA National, Quail Hollow, Memorial Park, Olympia Fields, Doral, Concession, the Country Club and Congaree, plus recent major championship courses like Augusta National, Oak Hill, Winged Foot and Bethpage Black. 

Recent History/Winners   

2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9/279); 200-1

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5/283); 20-1

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11/277); 13-1

2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4/284); 55-1 

2019: Francesco Molinari (-12/276); 33-1 

2018: Rory McIlroy (-18/270); 20-1 

2017: Marc Leishman (-11/277); 100-1 

2016: Jason Day (-17/271); 14-1 

2015: Matt Every (-19/269); 300-1 

2014: Matt Every (-13/275); 66-1 

2013: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 3-1 

2012: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 8-1 

2011: Martin Laird (-8/280); 45-1 

2010: Ernie Els (-11/277); 16-1 

Statistical Analysis

Bay Hill ranks as the third-toughest course on the PGA Tour in which to gain strokes on approach.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.32
2. Xander Schauffele 0.93
3. Matthieu Pavon 0.88 (35 rounds)
4. Lucas Glover 0.85
5. Collin Morikawa 0.84
6. Tom Hoge 0.83
7. Chris Kirk 0.68
8. Shane Lowry 0.68
9. Eric Cole 0.62
10. Will Zalatoris 0.57
11. Erik Van Rooyen 0.55
12. Patrick Cantlay 0.53
13. Keegan Bradley 0.47
14. Justin Lower 0.47
15. Adam Scott 0.45
16. Adam Svensson 0.44
17. Corey Conners 0.44
18. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.42

Note: Average Strokes Gained Per Round

The average approach shot here at Bay Hill is 184 yards. Over 36% of approach shots here come from over 200 yards. 

Proximity Gained 200+ Yards (Last 36 Rounds)

1. Tom Hoge 23.63
2. Luke List 18.2
3. Rory McIlroy 17.9
4. Corey Conners 17.24
5. Adam Svensson 15.29
6. Cameron Young 15.24
7. Scottie Scheffler 14.51
8. Xander Schauffele 14.27
9. Sahith Theegala 13.24
10. Taylor Moore 13.09
11. Keegan Bradley 12.14
12. Sami Välimäki 11.7
13. Tommy Fleetwood 10.54
14. Eric Cole 10.23
15. Erik Van Rooyen 8.51
16. Cam Davis 8.43
17. Viktor Hovland 8.23
18. Collin Morikawa 8

Note: Average feet gained per shot towards the hole from the designated distance.

Distance off the tee is certainly advantageous at Bay Hill, but so is avoiding the many hazards and penal rough. Total Driving accounts for the Driving Distance ranking + Driving Accuracy ranking.

Total Driving (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Rory McIlroy 18
2. Sami Välimäki 99
3. Stephan Jaeger 100
4. Austin Eckroat 101
5. Sam Burns 106
6. Grayson Murray 112
7. Corey Conners 127
8. Adam Schenk 127
9. Erik Van Rooyen 130
10. Shane Lowry 131
11. Cameron Young 133
12. Harris English 135
13. Jake Knapp 136
14. C.T. Pan 140
15. Matt Fitzpatrick 149
16. Xander Schauffele 150
17. Adam Svensson 154
18. Justin Rose 161

The par-5s have a birdie or better average of 38% and all are reachable in two shots. Players must take advantage of these holes to win here. 

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 36 rounds)

1. Min Woo Lee 27.7
2. Erik Van Rooyen 19
3. Grayson Murray 17.8
4. Matt Fitzpatrick 17.1
5. Stephan Jaeger 16.3
6. Will Zalatoris 15.8
7. Collin Morikawa 14.7
8. Wyndham Clark 14.7
9. Scottie Scheffler 13.7
10. J.T. Poston 13.2
11. Sam Burns 13.1
12. Webb Simpson 12
13. Xander Schauffele 11.8
14. Shane Lowry 10.8
15. Max Homa 10.6
16. Cameron Young 10.6
17. Tom Kim 10.3
18. Viktor Hovland 10.3
19. Jordan Spieth 10.2
20. Mackenzie Hughes 10.1

The rough being grown out has made chipping easier than off the tight lies that used to be around these greens. However, the greens are super fast, and scrambling for pars will still matter here.

Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 18
2. Sam Burns 14.4
3. Kurt Kitayama 13.4
4. C.T. Pan 12.5
5. Min Woo Lee 12.5
6. Brian Harman 12.4
7. Scottie Scheffler 11.3
8. Tommy Fleetwood 11.1
9. Brendon Todd 11
10. Justin Rose 10.5
11. Jake Knapp 9.7 (30 rounds)
12. Ludvig Åberg 9.7
13. Sahith Theegala 9.2
14. Lucas Glover 9.1
15. Max Homa 8.9
16. Andrew Putnam 8.1
17. Si Woo Kim 7.5
18. Wyndham Clark 7.5

The many water hazards here have seen Bay Hill rank as the course with the most penalty strokes on tour over the last three years and over-par numbers lurk everywhere.

Bogeys Avoided (Last 36 rounds)

1. Collin Morikawa 30.2
2. Sam Burns 29.9
3. Xander Schauffele 23.3
4. Rory McIlroy 20.9
5. Ludvig Åberg 20.7
6. Andrew Putnam 19
7. Tommy Fleetwood 18.8
8. Scottie Scheffler 18.6
9. Max Homa 18.5
10. Kurt Kitayama 17
11. Tom Hoge 14.9
12. Brendon Todd 14.3
13. Min Woo Lee 13.8
14. Patrick Cantlay 13.3
15. Si Woo Kim 12.1
16. Jordan Spieth 12
17. Jake Knapp 11.6 (30 rounds)
18. Viktor Hovland 11.3

The Birdie or Better percentage is almost 30% lower at Bay Hill than the overall tour average. 

Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Ludvig Åberg 35.5
2. Eric Cole 34
3. Scottie Scheffler 33.6
4. Byeong Hun An 32.8
5. Viktor Hovland 32.2
6. Rory McIlroy 31.2
7. Erik Van Rooyen 30.8
8. Collin Morikawa 28.1
9. Adam Scott 26.6
10. J.T. Poston 26.2
11. Sahith Theegala 25.2
12. Tom Hoge 22.1
13. Shane Lowry 18.9
14. Nicolai Højgaard 18.5
15. Patrick Cantlay 18.3
16. Stephan Jaeger 17.7
17. Max Homa 17.5
18. Xander Schauffele 17.1

Nine of the last 10 winners here finished in the top 15 for Strokes Gained: Putting. 

Strokes Gained Putting — Lightning Fast Bermuda Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Matt Fitzpatrick 25.5
2. Xander Schauffele 24.7
3. Brendon Todd 22.4
4. Mackenzie Hughes 22
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 21.2
6. Andrew Putnam 19.8
7. Sam Burns 18.4
8. Denny McCarthy 17.9
9. Keegan Bradley 15.6
10. Adam Hadwin 13.7
11. Patrick Rodgers 13.6
12. Tommy Fleetwood 12.7
13. Brian Harman 12.1
14. Seamus Power 10.8
15. Sungjae Im 10.2
16. Stephan Jaeger 9.9
17. Viktor Hovland 9.2
18. Max Homa 9

Five of the 10 par-4s measure between 450 and 500 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4 450-500 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Viktor Hovland 36.9
2. Xander Schauffele 27.2
3. Rory McIlroy 25.5
4. Patrick Cantlay 23.4
5. Ludvig Åberg 21.5
6. Hideki Matsuyama 21.4
7. Eric Cole 18.6
8. Scottie Scheffler 17.7
9. Wyndham Clark 15.4
10. Tommy Fleetwood 13.4
11. Sahith Theegala 12.5
12. Nick Taylor 11.9
13. Collin Morikawa 11.5
14. Byeong Hun An 11.2
15. Sam Burns 10.2
16. Adam Hadwin 9.5
17. Andrew Putnam 9.5

Three of the four par-3s measure between 200 and 225 yards. 

Strokes Gained Par 3 200-225 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Collin Morikawa 8.9
2. Justin Lower 8.8
3. Rory McIlroy 8.3
4. Sahith Theegala 8
5. Ludvig Åberg 7.7
6. Luke List 7.4
7. Austin Eckroat 6.9
8. Adam Hadwin 5.9
9. Eric Cole 5.7
10. Tom Kim 5
11. Sam Burns 4.9
12. Harris English 4.5
13. Shane Lowry 4.4
14. Patrick Cantlay 4.1
15. Jason Day 4

16 of the past 19 winners had played in at least three Arnold Palmer Invitationals, so course experience should be examined. 

Bay Hill Course History — Total Strokes Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Kurt Kitayama 2.85 (4 rounds)
2. Jordan Spieth 2.45 (8 rounds)
3. Scottie Scheffler 2.44 (12 rounds)
4. Rory McIlroy 2.36 (36 rounds)
5. Patrick Cantlay 2.35 (4 rounds)
6. Sungjae Im 1.89 (20 rounds)
7. Cameron Young 1.82 (8 rounds)
8. Max Homa 1.53 (16 rounds)
9. Jason Day 1.42 (32 rounds)
10. Matt Fitzpatrick 1.38 (32 rounds)
11. Emiliano Grillo 1.33 (20 rounds)
12. Corey Conners 1.28 (16 rounds)
13. Justin Rose 1.22 (36 rounds)
14. Adam Scott 1.19 (36 rounds)
15. Viktor Hovland 1.19 (20 rounds)
16. Tommy Fleetwood 1.15 (26 rounds)
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.12 (14 rounds)
18. Ludvig Åberg 1.1 (4 rounds)
19. Chris Kirk 1.08 (36 rounds)
20. Keegan Bradley 1 (36 rounds)

Note: Average Total Strokes Gained per Round

Selections

Rory McIlroy (9-1, DraftKings)

McIlroy was a disappointing T-22 last week at PGA National but led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and currently leads the PGA Tour and this field for Total Driving by a wide margin. 

He won here in 2018 and has never finished worse than 13th in seven appearances, including a runner-up last season. 

Viktor Hovland (18-1, Circa Sports)

Hovland should have won here two years ago and is always a fit at a long course that is firm and fast with challenging, thick rough. 

The Norwegian’s short game can always be a question mark, but he has gained nine strokes putting combined the last two years here, and the thick rough around the greens actually helps him with his weaker chipping. 

Cameron Young (28-1, BetRivers)

Young has finished 13th and 10th on two appearances at Bay Hill. 

He was T-4 last week at PGA National finishing on Monday with birdies at 17 and 18 and giving him momentum for this week. 

Will Zalatoris (33-1, BetRivers)

Zalatoris proved he was back with a runner-up at Riviera three weeks ago.

The injury concerns look to be behind him, and he steps up his game on classical courses. 

Placement markets, matchups, and any other futures will be posted Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks