NBA bettors having a decent season on DraftKings betting splits
At the outset of the season, I released some DraftKings Betting Splits systems for the NBA, reacting of course to the success and popularity of the same data we have offered on VSiN for both college and pro football.
We have continued to update the qualifying plays on each of the systems for every day of the season thus far on our NBA Analytics Report. Well, we’ve reached the approximate mid-season point in the NBA 2023-24 campaign, making it a perfect time to go back into the database and update our systems.
To summarize the midseason findings, the data sample contained 608 games, and for the most part, majority bettors are doing pretty well overall. In fact, these are the current results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 299-290 ATS (50.8%), -20 units
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 292-292 ATS (50%), -29.2 units
- Majority handle on moneylines: 408-197 (68.6%). +27.4 units
- Majority number of bets on moneylines: 408-198 (68.5%). +29.63 units
- Majority handle on totals: 323-273 (54.2%). +22.7 UNITS
- Majority number of BETS on totals: 299-293 (50.5%), -23.3 units
If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 608 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null and there were several ATS ties already in the season.
The point spread numbers are down a bit from last year’s findings, but unlike the NFL, where majority bettors tend to be significant losers, NBA bettors are 50% or better consistently. The moneyline success for bettors is way up from last season, by close to 80 units, while the totals results are remarkably consistent when comparing to the 2022-23 season findings.
I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following these betting splits. About a year and a half ago, I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunities if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find.
You’ve surely seen the newsletters, promos, and VSiN show hosts touting the Betting Splits Data from DraftKings, and righteously so, as we believe it to be a fantastic resource for bettors. These are the pages on the new VSiN.com that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? It lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each day or week. The common belief is that the “betting public” does not win over the long haul, and with the amount of money DK spends on acquiring customers, you have to assume that most of the bettors that play there would be considered “public.” In other words, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of.
Most of the theories I believed about public bettors losing more often than not came to fruition, particularly for the NFL, a sport heavily wagered by public bettors. The NBA, however, was proven to be a different story in the later parts of the 2022-23 season and for the early part of this season, as I have shown.
My best explanation for that is that bettors of the NBA aren’t as novice of a group as the NFL. You can’t be a “weekend warrior” and bet the NBA. You need to be willing to take on the daily grind, and you would only do this if you were successful. Otherwise, it’s simply a tedious, painful, money-losing process almost every night.
Before updating/revealing the system data I was able to uncover for the first half of the current NBA season, I should remind you of the two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places like DraftKings. That is the majority bet favorites on point spread and Overs on totals. The numbers are staggering.
According to the final ticket/handle so far this NBA season for games dated through Wednesday, January 17th, majority wagers were on favorites in at least 86% of the games, and on Overs for totals in 73%. These numbers are more dramatic than both college and pro football. However, that didn’t stop the overall group from making profits.
As a little background on this exercise, I basically tried to analyze the records of the “majority bettors” at DraftKings and the side/total they preferred for games. I also broke it down further by percentage of majority and by various team statistics.
There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) handle 2) number of bets. These can produce varied results, but in general, I subscribe to the theory that the total handle is a little less “public” than a total number of bets.
I always like to use the overall data for developing systems for using these betting splits breakdowns for the continuing 2023-24 season. If you haven’t been using these in our daily NBA Analytics Reports, I highly recommend adding it to your NBA handicapping arsenal. Each of these will give you a varying level of advantage over using the overall numbers I shared. If you have been using them, you will recognize that some of the parameters of the various systems have changed to reflect more current results.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2 year mark is still very profitable.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors enjoyed a strong postseason run this past year in the NBA, going 51-35 ATS on all games, good for 59.3%. You will see in a little while that it wasn’t all success, however, as their money line plays tanked. System #4 will become far more important in April.
At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.
The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing the number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on the handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle moneyline wagerers had a brutal playoff run last year, going 48-39 for -34.6 units and an R.O.I. of -38.4%. This system will be significant starting in April.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a money line wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in a NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%),
The Betting Splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular destination on VSiN.com.
The data we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook is now updated every five minutes instead of 10. We ping the DK database and see what data has changed and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits and the NBA Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
