Handicapping the NCAA Tournament by Conference
Despite what seems to be an endless realignment, for a variety of reasons, whether it’s matchups, motivations, or perceptions, the simple fact is that certain conferences generally match up well with others in certain types of games and line scenarios. A lot of this is part of what makes the NCAA Tournament such a draw. Fans and bettors are drawn to the games where a mid-major school takes on a Power 6 school. When these mid-major teams boast gaudy records, they are always popular Cinderella picks. At the same time, the teams that finish deep in Power Six leagues always seem ripe for the upset, but those that win their leagues are most often title contenders. There are always plenty of scenarios like this and NCAA Tournament trends that the most successful tournament bettors have their sights set on for when the action commences and the opening lines are released.
In this particular piece that I run each March, I separate all of the various conferences in college basketball and determine their performance records in all kinds of different tournament game situations of late. In addition, I provide a list of the teams from each league that will be playing in this year’s tournament and their opening matchups to help you spot the best qualifying trends, on line and total ranges, round level of games, by seed numbers, and perhaps most importantly, how they fare against some of the other conferences.
Let’s start with the ACC, one of the most successful leagues in the NCAA every year.
ACC
Teams in the field/First matchup
CLEMSON (WEST, #6) vs. NEW MEXICO (#11-Mountain West)
DUKE (SOUTH, #4) vs. VERMONT (#13-America East)
NORTH CAROLINA (WEST, #1) vs. HOWARD (MEAC)/WAGNER (Northeast)
NC STATE (SOUTH, #11) vs. TEXAS TECH (#6-Big 12)
VIRGINIA (MIDWEST, #10) vs. COLORADO STATE (#7-Mountain West)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Over the last two NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 21-10 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%).
– ACC teams have been most successful in the Final Four Round, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%) since 2001.
– In the role of pick ’em or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are currently on a 16-3 ATS (84.2%) surge, including nine straight covers.
– ACC teams are just 29-47-1 ATS (38.2%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAAs since 1998.
– ACC teams are 34-3 SU but 12-25 ATS (32.4%) in their last 37 as double-digit tourney favorites.
– ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 16-8-1 ATS (66.7%) since 2012.
– #2 ACC seeds are on a brutal 11-28-1 ATS (28.2%) slide since 2001. However, Duke did go 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in 2022.
– ACC teams are 16-4 SU but 1-19 ATS (5%) combined versus Atlantic Sun, Colonial Athletic, and Ohio Valley teams since 2001.
– ACC-Pac 12 tourney matchups have also gone Under on totals most often, 14-3-1 (82.4%) since 2003. ACC teams are on a 20-5 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) tourney run in the last 25 vs. Pac-12 foes.
– ACC teams are on a current surge of 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in the NCAAs versus Big 12 foes.
– In 19 most recent NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and Big East, Over the total is 13-6 (68.4%).
– Seventeen of the last 22 NCAA tourney matchups between the ACC and SEC have gone Under the total (77.3%).
– There have been eight tourney matchups since 2001, pitting ACC foes against one another. All eight went Over the total (100%), producing 150 PPG on totals averaging 142.
America East
Teams in the field/First matchup
VERMONT (SOUTH, #13) vs. DUKE (#4-ACC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Vermont’s loss to Marquette in 2023 dropped the America East record in the NCAAs to 11-4 ATS (73.3%) since 2011.
– America East teams are 15-8-1 Under (65.2%) the total in NCAAs since 2003.
American Athletic
Teams in the field/First matchup
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (EAST, #8) vs. NORTHWESTERN (#9-Big Ten)
UAB (EAST, #12) vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (#5-Mountain West)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– American Athletic teams are 12-4 Under the total (75%) in their last 16 tourney games as underdogs.
– In their last 25 tourney games versus power conference foes, American Athletic teams are 17-10 Under the total (63%).
– AAC teams lost both of their two NCAA tourney games versus fellow mid-major teams last year, dropping their recent record in that scenario to 7-2 ATS (77.8%).
– As seeds #7-#10, AAC teams have been dangerous lately, going 11-9 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in their last 20 tourney tries. However, Memphis did lose a year ago.
Atlantic 10
Teams in the field/First matchup
DAYTON (WEST, #7) vs. NEVADA (#10-Mountain West)
DUQUESNE (EAST, #11) vs. BYU (#6-Big 12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Atlantic 10 teams have won just two of their last 11 NCAA tourney games, both SU and ATS (18.2%).
– A-10 teams are also on a 2-9 SU and ATS (18.2%) skid in the NCAA’s against fellow mid-major conference foes.
– Underdogs are 10-3 ATS (76.9%) in the last 13 NCAA tourney games between Atlantic 10 and Big East.
– Favorites are on an 18-4 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015.
– Atlantic 10 teams are 19-6 SU and 14-7-4 ATS (66.7%) in their last 25 games as tournament favorites.
Atlantic Sun
Teams in the field/First matchup
STETSON (EAST, #16) vs. CONNECTICUT (#1-Big East)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Atlantic Sun teams are on an 11-4 ATS (73.3%) run in NCAA tourney games since 2013, including 9-3 ATS (75%) vs. Power Six conferences.
– Atlantic Sun teams are on 12-6 Over (66.7%) the total run in NCAA’s.
Big 12
Teams in the field/First matchup
BAYLOR (WEST, #3) vs. COLGATE (#14-Patriot)
BYU (EAST, #6) vs. DUQUESNE (#11-Atlantic 10)
HOUSTON (SOUTH, #1) vs. LONGWOOD (#16-Big South)
IOWA STATE (EAST, #2) vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (#15-Summit)
KANSAS (MIDWEST, #4) vs. SAMFORD (#13-Southern)
TCU (MIDWEST, #9) vs. UTAH STATE (#8-Mountain West)
TEXAS (MIDWEST, #7) vs. COLORADO STATE (Mountain West)/VIRGINIA (ACC)
TEXAS TECH (SOUTH, #6) vs. NC STATE (#11-ACC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Big 12 teams have been dominant in the play-in/first-round games of the tournament since 2017, going 30-10 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%).
– Big 12 teams in the #4-#8 seed ranges are on a slide of 23-31 SU and 20-33 ATS (37.7%) since 2010, popular upset victims.
– Favorites are 14-5 SU and 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) in the last 19 NCAA tournament games between the Big 12 and Big Ten.
– Against mid-major teams in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on an 18-6 ATS (75%) surge.
– Big 12 teams are just 11-13 SU and 8-16 ATS (33.3%) in their last 24 NCAA tourney games vs. the Big East.
Big 12 teams have struggled against Missouri Valley teams in NCAA tourney play, going just 3-7 SU and 1-9 ATS (10%) since 2001.
– Underdogs are on a 16-3 ATS (84.2%) run in NCAA tourney games between Big 12 and Pac-12 teams. Big 12 teams are just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) in those contests.
– Big 12 teams have lost 57 of their 72 NCAA tourney games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 29-42-1 ATS (40.8%) in those games.
– As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 26-1 SU and 19-8 ATS (70.4%).
Big East
Teams in the field/First matchup
CONNECTICUT (EAST, #1) vs. STETSON (#16-Atlantic Sun)
CREIGHTON (MIDWEST, #3) vs. AKRON (#14-Mid-American)
MARQUETTE (SOUTH, #2) vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (#15-Conference USA)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Big East schools own a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS record in championship games since 2001, including Connecticut’s win a year ago.
– Big East teams have also thrived in the tournament’s second round of late, going 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) since 2017.
– Top two seeded (#1s & #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 20-5 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) in the NCAAs since 2016.
– The last 46 Big East teams to play as seeds of #7 or worse in the NCAA tourney are 12-34 SU and 16-30 ATS (34.8%).
– Teams from the Big East Conference have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAAs since 2007, going 38-3 SU and 26-15 ATS (63.4%).
– Teams from the Big East in the #8-#9 First Round matchup have been just 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS (17.6%) in the NCAA since 2005.
– Big East teams are on a 9-2 SU and ATS (81.8%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament.
– Big East teams have struggled versus the Pac-12 in NCAA tourney play, 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) since 2010.
– Favorites are 41-17 ATS (70.7%) in the last 58 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 13-3 ATS last year.
– In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since 2015, favorites are on a 29-11 SU and 28-10 ATS (73.7%) run.
Big Sky
Teams in the field/First matchup
MONTANA STATE (MIDWEST, #16) vs. GRAMBLING (#16-SWAC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Big Sky teams are just 1-22 SU and 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in the tournament since 2001, including 3-16 ATS (15.8%) as an underdog of less than 20 points.
– Big Sky teams have lost 21 straight NCAA tournament games against major conference teams, going 5-16 ATS (23.8%).
Big South
Teams in the field/First matchup
LONGWOOD (SOUTH, #16) vs. HOUSTON (#16-Big 12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Big South teams are 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) as #16 seeds in the tournament since 2003, 3-8 ATS (27.3%) in all other seeds.
– Big South teams are on a 15-5 Under the total (75%) tourney surge vs. major conference teams, scoring just 57.1 PPG.
Big Ten
Teams in the field/First matchup
ILLINOIS (EAST, #3) vs. MOREHEAD STATE (#14-Ohio Valley)
MICHIGAN STATE (WEST, #9) vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (#8-SEC)
NEBRASKA (SOUTH, #8) vs. TEXAS A&M (#9-SEC)
NORTHWESTERN (EAST, #9) vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC (#8-American Athletic)
PURDUE (MIDWEST, #1) vs. GRAMBLING (SWAC)/MONTANA (Big Sky)
WISCONSIN (SOUTH, #5) vs. JAMES MADISON (#12-Sun Belt)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Big Ten teams are winless at 0-7 SU and ATS in the championship game since 2001.
– Big Ten teams have been vulnerable in the #4 seed, 4-13-1 ATS (23.5%) in their last 18 tourney tries.
– Overall, Big Ten teams and top 6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 41-30 SU but 27-43-1 ATS (38.6%) in that scenario.
– Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 49-5 SU and 29-21-4 ATS (58%) since 1998. However, Purdue has lost outright in each of the last two years.
– Big Ten teams are on an 11-7 SU and 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) run vs. SEC foes in the NCAA tourney but did go just 1-3 in 2023.
– Big Ten teams have gone just 8-18-1 ATS (30.8%) since 2015 in the NCAA tournament vs. Big 12 and Pac-12 foes.
– For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-50 SU and 21-35 ATS (37.5%) since 1998.
– In tourney games with single-digit point spreads versus mid-major conference foes in the NCAAs, Big Ten teams are on an ugly 28-43 ATS (39.4%) skid since 2006.
– In tourney games of the Second Round and later, Big Ten teams are just 16-31 SU and 17-28-2 ATS (37.8%) since 2017.
Big West
Teams in the field/First matchup
LONG BEACH STATE (WEST, #15) vs. ARIZONA (#2-Pac-12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Big West teams are just 4-19 SU and 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) in their last 23 NCAA tournament games.
– Big West teams have trended Under on totals in three straight NCAA tourney games.
– Big West teams have struggled in the role of large underdog, 1-19 SU and 7-14-1 ATS (33.3%) when catching 6.5 points or more in the tourney since 1998.
– All five Big West teams that reached the second round since 2001 lost SU and ATS, by an average of 18 PPG.
Colonial Athletic
Teams in the field/First matchup
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (WEST, #13) vs. ALABAMA (#4-SEC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Colonial Athletic teams have been the country’s best in terms of NCAA tournament spread performance, 26-12-3 ATS (68.4%) since 2001. However, they have lost their last four games SU and ATS and are on a 10-game outright losing streak.
– Colonial Athletic teams are on a 23-8-2 ATS (74.2%) run as NCAA tourney dogs to major conference teams. Again though, they are off three straight losses.
– Under the total is 8-2 (80%) in the last 10 Colonial Athletic NCAA tournament games versus other mid-major conference teams.
– CAA teams have covered the spread in all nine NCAA tourney games (9-0 ATS 100%) vs. ACC teams since 2001.
Conference USA
Teams in the field/First matchup
WESTERN KENTUCKY (SOUTH, #15) vs. MARQUETTE (#2-Big East)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Florida Atlantic’s 4-1 SU and ATS run last year came on the heels of a 6-16 SU and 7-15 ATS NCAA tourney slide for Conference USA teams since 2009.
– Versus power conference schools in the NCAA tournament, Conference USA teams are just 24-38 SU and ATS (38.7%) since 1998, including 9-21 ATS (30%) as dogs of 4.5 points or more.
– Favorites have won the last six NCAA tourney games SU and ATS between Conference USA and ACC.
– Favorites are on a 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) run in NCAA tournament games between Conference USA and Big Ten, although North Texas did upend Purdue in 2021.
– Conference USA teams are on a brutal slide of 4-22 SU and 6-20 ATS (23.1%) as an underdog of +2 to +9.5 in the NCAA tournament.
– Double-digit seeded Conference USA teams are on a 6-16 SU and 7-15 ATS (31.8%) slide in the NCAAs.
Horizon
Teams in the field/First matchup
OAKLAND (SOUTH, #14) vs. KENTUCKY (#3-SEC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Horizon League teams have lost 12 of their last 13 NCAA tourney games while going 5-8 ATS (38.5%). However, they are currently on a three-game ATS win streak.
– Horizon League teams are on a 16-7 Under the total (69.6%) NCAA run.
– Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 0-14 SU and 5-9 ATS (35.7%) since 2002. In all other games, they are 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%).
– In their last 15 NCAA tourney games versus power conference foes, Horizon League teams are 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS (33.3%) since 2002. Versus other mid-majors, Horizon League teams are on an 8-2 SU and ATS tourney surge.
Ivy
Teams in the field/First matchup
YALE (EAST, #13) vs. AUBURN (#4-SEC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Ivy League teams have gone 7-12 SU and 12-7 ATS (63.2%) in their last 19 NCAA tourney games, including Princeton a year ago, who won two games to reach the Sweet 16.
– Ivy League teams are on a 20-10 Under the total (66.7%) NCAA run.
– As underdogs of 6 points or more in the NCAAs, Ivy League teams are just 3-18 SU and 9-12 ATS (42.9%) since 2000. They are also 17-4 Under the total (80.8%) in those games, scoring just 60.1 PPG.
Metro Atlantic
Teams in the field/First matchup
ST PETER’S (MIDWEST, #15) vs. TENNESSEE (#2-SEC)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Metro Atlantic Athletic are now 1-6 SU and ATS (14.3%) in their last seven NCAA tourney tries as a non-double-digit underdog. They have won their last four ATS as a double-digit go.
– MAAC teams are historically 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS (0%) in play-in games.
– Metro Atlantic Athletic teams have produced a record of 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS versus SEC teams since 2001 in the NCAAs.
Mid-American
Teams in the field/First matchup
AKRON (MIDWEST, #14) vs. CREIGHTON (#3-Big East)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Mid-American Conference teams are 14-6 ATS (70%) in their last 20 NCAA tourney games as a #13 seed or worse but 9-11 ATS (45%) in other seeds during that stretch.
– Mid-American Conference teams are on a run of 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in their last 14 tries as dogs of 6.5 points or more in the NCAA tourney.
– MAC teams have won five straight NCAA tourney games versus the Pac-12 against the spread (100%).
Mid-Eastern
Teams in the field/First matchup
HOWARD (WEST, #16) vs. WAGNER (#16-Northeast)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– MEAC teams are on a 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) slide in the NCAAs.
– MEAC teams are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS (18.2%) in their last 11 NCAA tourney games as double-digit dogs.
– NCAA Tourney games featuring MEAC teams have trended heavily Under on totals, 18-9 (69.2%) in the last 27.
Missouri Valley
Teams in the field/First matchup
DRAKE (EAST, #10) vs. WASHINGTON STATE (#7-Pac-12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Missouri Valley Conference teams have gone 20-14 SU and 20-13-1 ATS (60.6%) in the NCAA tournament since 2013 but are currently on a 0-3 SU and ATS skid.
– MVC teams are on an 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) NCAA tourney run against power conference schools.
– Missouri Valley schools are 6-4 SU and 7-1-2 ATS (70%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney contests vs. SEC.
– MVC teams are 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since 2006 as an NCAA tournament underdog of 3 points or more.
– Underdogs have been 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) since 2013 in MVC NCAA tourney games.
– Under the total is 14-6 (70%) in the last 20 Missouri Valley NCAA tourney games.
Mountain West
Teams in the field/First matchup
BOISE STATE (SOUTH, #10) vs. COLORADO (#7-Pac-12)
COLORADO STATE (MIDWEST, #10) vs. VIRGINIA (#7-ACC)
NEVADA (WEST, #10) vs. DAYTON (#7-Atlantic 10)
NEW MEXICO (WEST, #11) vs. CLEMSON (#6-ACC)
SAN DIEGO STATE (EAST, #5) vs. UAB (#12-American Athletic)
UTAH STATE (MIDWEST, #8) vs. TCU (#9-Big 12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Mountain West teams’ struggles in the NCAAs haven’t been that well-documented, but collectively they are just 26-57 SU and 26-54-3 ATS (32.5%) since 2001, despite San Diego State’s five outright wins last year, collectively the MWC was still 4-5 ATS.
– As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 10-40 SU and 13-34-3 ATS (27.7%) since 2001.
– Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 11-46 SU and 14-41-2 ATS (25.4%).
– As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAAs, MWC teams are on a brutal 3-32 SU and 5-28-2 ATS (15.2%) since 2003!
– It’s a stretch to find any NCAA tourney trends in which MWC teams are successful, but they boast a 13-12-1 ATS (52%) mark versus fellow mid-major schools since 2002.
Northeast
Teams in the field/First matchup
WAGNER (WEST, #16) vs. HOWARD (#16-Mid-Eastern)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Fairleigh Dickinson won two games last year and went 3-0 ATS, snapping a slide of 4-9-1 ATS in the prior 14 NCAA tourney games for Northeast Conference teams.
– Northeast Conference teams are on a 7-3 Over the total surge as a double-digit NCAA tourney underdog.
Ohio Valley
Teams in the field/First matchup
MOREHEAD STATE (EAST, #14) vs. ILLINOIS (#3-Big Ten)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Ohio Valley Conference teams have gone 1-4 SU and ATS (20%) in their last five NCAA tournament games after a 15-6 ATS run prior.
– OVC teams are 8-2 ATS (80%) in their last 10 NCAA tourney games when playing as dogs of 9 points or more.
– Over the total is 9-3 (75%) in the last 12 Ohio Valley NCAA tourney games.
Pac-12
Teams in the field/First matchup
ARIZONA (WEST, #2) vs. LONG BEACH STATE (#15-Big West)
COLORADO (SOUTH, #10) vs. BOISE STATE (#7-Mountain West)
OREGON (MIDWEST, #11) vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (#6-SEC)
WASHINGTON STATE (EAST, #7) vs. DRAKE (#10-Missouri Valley)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– After an amazing 13-5 SU and 18-3 ATS run in the 2021 NCAA tournament, Pac-12 teams responded by going 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) the last two years. This will, of course, be the league’s final NCAA tourney run.
– Pac-12 teams are on a 16-4 ATS (80%) run versus Big 12 and Big East teams in NCAA tourney play since 2013.
– Underdogs are on a 14-6 ATS (70%) surge in NCAA tourney games between the Pac-12 and Big Ten conferences.
– Pac-12 teams are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) versus Mountain West teams in the tournament since 2002, including 5-0 SU and ATS when favored.
– Pac-12 teams are on a run of 21-8 ATS (72.4%) in second-round NCAA tournament games.
– Pac-12 teams are just 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) in the Sweet 16 round since 2001.
– Pac-12 teams have performed extremely well as underdogs lately in NCAA tourney games, 36-17 ATS (67.9%) since 2011.
– Double-digit seeded Pac-12 teams in the NCAAs have been hard to knock out, as they are 27-21 SU & 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2009.
– Alternatively, Pac-12 teams in the #7-#9 seeds are on an 8-22 SU and 11-19 ATS (36.7%) skid in the NCAAs.
Patriot
Teams in the field/First matchup
COLGATE (WEST, #14) vs. BAYLOR (#3-Big 12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Patriot League teams are 10-8 ATS (55.6%) in the First Round of the NCAA tournament since 2004, including 5-3 ATS in the last eight, but are 1-4 ATS (20%) in all other games.
– Patriot League teams are 10-5 (66.7%) ATS as double-digit underdogs in the NCAAs since 2000.
– Patriot League teams are 12-7 (63.2%) ATS vs. power conference foes in the NCAAs since 2000, but 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS (25%) against fellow mid-major teams.
SEC
Teams in the field/First matchup
ALABAMA (WEST, #4) vs. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (#13-Colonial Athletic)
AUBURN (EAST, #4) vs. YALE (#13-Ivy League)
FLORIDA (SOUTH, #7) vs. BOISE STATE (Mountain West)/COLORADO (Pac-12)
KENTUCKY (SOUTH, #3) vs. OAKLAND (#14-Horizon)
MISSISSIPPI STATE (WEST, #8) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (#9-Big Ten)
SOUTH CAROLINA (MIDWEST, #6) vs. OREGON (#11-Pac-12)
TENNESSEE (MIDWEST, #2) vs. ST PETER’S (#15-Metro Atlantic)
TEXAS A&M (SOUTH, #9) vs. NEBRASKA (#8-Big Ten)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 36-35 SU and 25-46 ATS (35.2%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney.
– As NCAA favorites of more than 20 points, SEC teams are 10-0 Over the total (100%) since 2001, scoring 86.8 PPG.
– Underdogs are 43-21 ATS (67.2%) in the last 64 SEC NCAA tourney games overall.
– As pick ’ems or small favorites of 5 points or less, SEC teams are an ugly 42-51 SU and 34-55-4 ATS (38.2%) in the NCAAs since 1999.
– SEC teams had been a solid wager in the Sweet 16 round, 18-5-2 ATS from 2003-2017, but they are just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%) since.
– SEC teams are on a 16-7 Over the total run in Elite Eight games.
– SEC teams have gotten the better of Pac-12 teams recently in NCAA tournament games, 12-5 ATS (70.6%) in the last 17.
– Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to an 9-24 SU and 11-20-2 ATS (35.5%) record since 2007.
– The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 14-23 ATS (37.8%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 28-8-1 (77.8%) rate.
– SEC teams are on a 0-6 ATS (0%) skid versus mid-major teams in the NCAAs and are 4-12 ATS (25%) in the last 16.
Southern
Teams in the field/First matchup
SAMFORD (MIDWEST, #13) vs. KANSAS (#4-Big 12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Southern Conference teams have been very competitive in the NCAAs when playing as an underdog of less than 15 points, 16-6 ATS (72.7%) in the last 22.
– SoCon teams have trended Under the total in recent NCAAs, 12-3 (80%) in the last 15.
– Teams from the SoCon have covered five straight NCAA first-round games (100% ATS).
Southland
Teams in the field/First matchup
MCNEESE STATE (MIDWEST, #12) vs. GONZAGA (#5-West Coast)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– As underdogs of 8.5 points or less (or favored), Southland Conference teams are 8-5-1 ATS (61.5%) in their last 14 NCAA tournament tries, but when a larger underdog than that, they are 0-15 SU and 5-9-1 ATS (35.7%) since 2000.
– Southland Conference teams are 12-4 Under the total (75%) in their last 16 NCAA tournament first-round games.
Summit
Teams in the field/First matchup
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (EAST, #15) vs. IOWA STATE (#2-Big 12)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Overall, Summit League teams are on a 7-3-1 ATS (70%) run in NCAA tourney action, including a 3-0 ATS sweep by Oral Roberts in 2021. Underdogs are 8-2-1 ATS (80%) in those games. However, both trends are 0-2 SU and ATS in 2022 & 2023.
– Summit League teams have been a very competitive First Round NCAA team in recent years, going 2-7 SU but 6-2-1 ATS (75%) in the last nine.
– Recognized as a high-scoring, up-tempo league, five of the last six NCAA tourney games featuring a Summit League team went Under the total (83.3%).
Sun Belt
Teams in the field/First matchup
JAMES MADISON (SOUTH, #12) vs. WISCONSIN (#5-Big Ten)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– Sun Belt teams have lost their last seven NCAA tournament games while going 2-5 ATS (28.6%). Under the total is also 6-1 (85.7%) in those games.
– As #14-#16 seeds in the NCAA’s, SBC teams are on a 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) slide since 1999, but as #13 or better they’ve gone 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that same span.
– As underdogs of 7.5 points or less, Sun Belt teams are on a 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS (20%) slide in the NCAAs.
– As double-digit dogs, although they’ve never pulled an outright upset, Sun Belt teams are on an 11-4 ATS (73.3%) surge in the NCAAs.
– Sun Belt teams seem to take some motivation from playing major conference teams, as they are on an NCAA tourney run of 8-4 ATS (66.7%) versus those foes since 2008.
SWAC
Teams in the field/First matchup
GRAMBLING (MIDWEST, #16) vs. MONTANA STATE (#16-Big Sky)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– SWAC teams are currently on a 5-3 ATS (62.5%) run in NCAA tourney games, including back-to-back wins in Play-In games.
– Despite allowing 87.8 PPG, SWAC teams are 4-2 ATS in their last six NCAA first-round contests.
WAC
Teams in the field/First matchup
GRAND CANYON (WEST, #12) vs. ST MARY’S-CA (#5-West Coast)
NCAA Tournament Trends
– WAC teams have won just two of their last 23 games in the NCAAs since 2006, going 10-13 ATS. However, they are on a current five-game ATS winning streak.
– Six of the last seven WAC first-round NCAA tourney games have gone Over the total (85.7%).
West Coast
Teams in the field/First matchup
GONZAGA (MIDWEST, #5) vs. MCNEESE STATE (#12-Southland)
ST MARY’S-CA (WEST, #5) vs. GRAND CANYON (#12-WAC)
Trends
– Going into the 2024 NCAAs, St Mary’s and Gonzaga are looking to snap a 3-11 ATS (21.4%) tourney skid for WCC teams.
– West Coast Conference teams are just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS (23.1%) in their last 13 NCAA games against top 3 seeds.
– West Coast Conference teams haven’t been as good as suspected as NCAA tournament underdogs, 7-22 SU and 8-21 ATS (27.6%) since 2007, including 10 straight outright and ATS losses.
– WCC teams have struggled against other non-major conference teams in NCAA tourney play, 19-8 SU but 8-19 ATS (29.6%) since 2004.
– WCC teams are just 5-14 ATS (26.3%) in their last 19 NCAA tourney games as favorites of 9.5 points or more.
– Favorites have won the last seven tourney games SU and ATS (100%) between West Coast and Big East conferences in the NCAAs.
