UFL Best Bets
Let’s look at my UFL best bets for Week 2.
UFL Week 2 Betting Notes
Week 1 Unders were 4-0 (Average total: 41, Average combined PPG: 36)
Closing line favorites went 3-1, but the lone covering underdog (San Antonio) won outright.
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Memphis Showboats
While I’ve been tasked with making picks/leans on a full-game side or total for every game, let it be known my favorite bet here is San Antonio First Half. They’re -1 on the first half spread, -122 First Half moneyline.
If you watched the XFL, you know current Brahmas Head Coach Wade Phillips & Offensive Coordinator AJ Smith were leading the Houston Roughnecks last year. Prior to star WR Jontre Kirklin getting hurt and other compounding injuries, their offense was humming, averaging over 30 PPG. Kirklin is a Brahma now, and Smith is as creative and aggressive as ever in his playcalling. San Antonio led DC 20-9 in their season opener at the half before the Defender’s defense worked out some kinks in the second half. I could see something similar against the Showboats. San Antonio stuns you early (their defense is also solid, held DC to nothing but FGs), get an early lead and see if the defense adjusts in the second Half.
UFL Best Bet(s): San Antonio First Half moneyline -122 (Best Bet**), Over 40.5
Arlington Renegades vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
I’ll be on the sideline for this game, and fair warning, I always struggle breaking down my own games because I get so pulled into the storylines and what coaches and players are telling me throughout the week. That said, this feels like a game with Over potential. Both Arlington and St. Louis struggled offensively the opening weekend, and I think they both improve in Week 2.
The Battlehawks are a big rhythm offense, so getting AJ McCarron in a groove early will be important after averaging just 4.4 yards per play and 16 total points in Week 1. They’re at home this week and will have the support of 35,000+ fans in attendance. In fact, some are saying it could end up being the largest attendance for a game in the modern spring football era come Saturday night.
Despite the third-down crowd noise that will certainly be there, I still expect Arlington’s offense to take a step forward this week as well. Any run game will be better than what we saw in Week 1, I have a lot of faith in their QB Luis Perez who’s among the best in the league, and St. Louis will be without one of their best defense players/leaders, middle linebacker Mike Rose. (Also, yes, this game is on during the same window as the Final Four, but we all have multiple screens these days so, HELLO, get ABC on somewhere too!)
UFL Best Bet: Over 41.5
Birmingham Stallions vs. Michigan Panthers
Birmingham is the class of the USFL conference and has already been bet down from +300 to +230 to three-peat as a spring football champion. They started their title defense with a 27-14 win and cover as a -3.5-point favorite against last year’s XFL Champion Arlington and are a rightful large favorite in Week 2 against the Panthers.
Michigan is fresh off an outright upset of St. Louis last week despite being a 6.5-point underdog then as well. While I don’t think that translates to another win against the Stallions, their defense is really good, so it’s possible they keep this closer than the odds would indicate. They held AJ McCarron and the Battlehawks to just 16 points in the win, 62 yards rushing, sacked McCarron three times and forced a fumble. They’re at home and should come to play against Birmingham. I lean +6.5 in what I expect to be a lower-scoring affair, but my favorite play is the Under 41 points.
UFL Best bet: Under 41
Houston Roughnecks vs. DC Defenders
The Defenders had a rough season-opener, losing to the Brahmas 27-12 despite being a -4.5-point favorite. My lone loser of the week was the Over 43.5 that game, which I’m still irritated didn’t get home.
Jordan Ta’amu had the most passing yards of any QB in Week 1, and DC was moving the ball well throughout the game, but they had to settle for four field goals rather than touchdowns. They also had a score called back and a critical late red zone interception.
All that to say, the win for San Antonio wasn’t as dominant as it seems. One of their TDs even came on a trick play that saw their punter throw a 40-yard pass to a 300-pound center. I think the picture becomes clearer for the Defenders this week, who are at home in one of the top environments in the league. Audi Field will be packed and the Beer Snake and trademark lemons will be on full display (if you don’t know what I’m talking about, google it ASAP). Plus, if there was a “biggest loser” last week, it was the Houston Roughnecks, who could be battling for the worst team in the league.
UFL Best Bet: DC -5
