Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, March 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 UNITS and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: NONE TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIL-NYM, PLAY UNDER in ATL-PHI, PLAY UNDER in SF-SD, PLAY OVER in CLE-OAK
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA, PLAY CLEVELAND
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and a ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA RL, CLEVELAND RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better-rated bullpen teams that are not favorites of -190 or higher, or are -190 or higher and have a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the last regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment (System Matches): TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A mid-2023 season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites are worth back consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle fell in the last couple of weeks as some of the big favorites no longer had any playoff stakes on the line but still settled at +4.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 1-0 for +1.00 units.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-238 vs. COL), PLAY LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system last season arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.4%. So far, for the 2024 season, they are 0-1 for -1.00 units.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-105 at NYM), PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 241-249 for -27.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished last regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (-155 vs SF)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent.
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 312-288 (52%) for +37.68 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.3%.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+114 vs CLE)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game.
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1437-1339 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -168.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-238 vs COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing.
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1282-1683 (43.2%) for -175.16 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (+185 at LAD), FADE COLORADO (+195 at ARI)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing.
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 2900-2518 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -356.8 units and a R.O.I. of -6.6%.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (-130 vs. PIT), FADE SAN DIEGO (-155 vs. SF), FADE ARIZONA (-238 vs. COL), FADE LA DODGERS (-225 vs. STL)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long.
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 814-694 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +26.16 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.7%.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+114 vs CLE)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: 1. ST LOUIS +185 (+42 diff), 2. COLORADO +195 (+40 diff), 3. PHILADELPHIA +105 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -122 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: 1(tie). CLE-OAK OVER 7.5 (+0.9) and ATL-PHI OVER 7 (+0.9), 3. SF-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: 1. COL-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.9), 2. PIT-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), 3. NYY-HOU UNDER 9 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(985) ATLANTA (0-0) at (986) PHILADELPHIA (0-0)
Trend: Atlanta wasn’t as good during the day last season, going 29-22 for -4.68 units
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (-125 at PHI)
Trend: Philadelphia had a good record at home last season, 55-34 for +3.30 units
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+105 vs ATL)
(981) BOSTON (1-0) at (982) SEATTLE (0-1)
Trend: Boston was not good against RH starters last season, going 54-66 for -19.89 units
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+124 at SEA)
Trend: Seattle was 39-23 O/U record last season against AL East/Central teams
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(979) CLEVELAND (1-0) at (980) OAKLAND (0-1)
Trend: Cleveland was not great on the road last season, going 34-47 for -16.29 units
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-135 at OAK)
Trend: Oakland trended slightly Over at night last season, having a 50-41 O/U
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(969) COLORADO (0-1) at (970) ARIZONA (1-0)
Trend: Colorado was bad against RH starters last season, going 37-74 for -21.71 units
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+195 at AZ)
Trend: Arizona trended Under at home last season, having a 34-48 O/U
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(983) MILWAUKEE (0-0) at (984) NEW YORK-NL (0-0)
Trend: Milwaukee was not good against LH starters last year, going 22-26 for -11.43 units
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-105 at NYM)
Trend: NY Mets trended Under at home last season, having a 28-46 O/U
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(977) NEW YORK-AL (1-0) at (978) HOUSTON (0-1)
Trend: NYY trended Under at night last season, having a 42-58 O/U
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
Trend: Houston wasn’t a good bet at home last season, going 40-47 for -38.63 units
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-122 vs NYY)
(967) PITTSBURGH (1-0) at (968) MIAMI (0-1)
Trend: Pittsburgh trended Over at night last year, having a 59-38 O/U
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Miami was heavy Under vs NL Central/West teams last season, having a 24-39 O/U
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(971) SAN FRANCISCO (0-1) at (972) SAN DIEGO (2-1)
Trend: San Francisco was not good on the road last season, going 34-45 for -14.30 units
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+130 at SD)
Trend: San Diego trended Under at home last season, having a 30-45 O/U
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(973) ST LOUIS (0-1) at (974) LOS ANGELES-NL (2-1)
Trend: St Louis was slightly Over against NL West/East teams last season, having a 35-27 O/U
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
Trend: LAD was good at night last season, going 75-44 for +6.29 units
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
(975) TORONTO (1-0) at (976) TAMPA BAY (0-1)
Trend: Toronto wasn’t good vs. Divisional teams last season, going 21-31 for -21.08 units
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+105 at TB)
Trend: Tampa Bay was solid at home last season, going 53-30 for +5.58 units
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-125 vs TOR)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(985) ATLANTA (0-0) at (986) PHILADELPHIA (0-0)
Trend: 16-2 (+12.95 units) in the last 18 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (+105 vs ATL)
(981) BOSTON (1-0) at (982) SEATTLE (0-1)
Trend: 9-1 (+7.60 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (*if they become a favorite in this line range, -148 currently*)
(979) CLEVELAND (1-0) at (980) OAKLAND (0-1)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 3-7 (-3.30 units) as a night time underdog in the last five seasons
xSystem Match: FADE OAKLAND (+114 vs CLE)
(969) COLORADO (0-1) at (970) ARIZONA (1-0)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 0-7 as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+195 at AZ)
(983) MILWAUKEE (0-0) at (984) NEW YORK-NL (0-0)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 14-3 (+10.1 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (*if they become a favorite in this line range, -115 currently*)
(977) NEW YORK-AL (1-0) at (978) HOUSTON (0-1)
Trend: Carlos Rodon was 3-11 (-9.82 units) last season with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (+102 at HOU)
(967) PITTSBURGH (1-0) at (968) MIAMI (0-1)
Trend: Martin Perez is 11-4 (+7.30 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+110 at MIA)
(971) SAN FRANCISCO (0-1) at (972) SAN DIEGO (2-1)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 8-1 (+7.50 units) in the last nine starts vs San Francisco
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-155 vs SF)
(975) TORONTO (1-0) at (976) TAMPA BAY (0-1)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 9-4 (+4.50 units) vs AL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+105 at TB)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 15-5 (+5.65 units) in home night games as a favorite in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-125 vs TOR)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING TEAM SPECIFIC MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
