The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, CHICAGO, PHILADELPHIA, PHOENIX, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 27-19 ATS record (58.7%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 46 games was only 3.6% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY): UTAH

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a completely opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, LA LAKERS, GOLDEN STATE, PORTLAND, NEW YORK

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on moneyline wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY): DENVER ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group has struggled this season, going 16-28 for -9.31 units and an R.O.I. of -21.2%. This doesn’t seem to be a real significant amount, but when compared to the overall wins of +27.4 units, it represents a significant cut out of the profits. Favorite betting has certainly prevailed so far in 2023-24.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS ML, DALLAS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, an R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE ML, MIAMI ML

These last four systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-ORL, LAL-IND, DET-WSH, GSW-CHA, CHI-BKN, PHI-CLE, PHX-OKC, NYK-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 56% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group has been awful, 11-35 this season (23.9%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAL-IND, DET-WSH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in LAC-ORL, PLAY UNDER in CHI-BKN, PLAY UNDER in PHI-CLE, PLAY OVER in POR-MIA, PLAY UNDER in NYK-SAS, PLAY OVER in MIN-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in LAL-IND

Schedule situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Home teams on 2 Days Rest are 125-87 SU but 92-118-1 ATS (43.8%) versus teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last three seasons.
3/29: Fade MIAMI vs. Portland
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-13.5 vs POR)

3/29: Fade SACRAMENTO vs. Dallas
System Match: FADE SACRAMENTO (-1 vs DAL)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these angles will apply the rest of the way.

The LA CLIPPERS boast a phenomenal 30-15 SU and 25-20 ATS (55.6%) record as a single-digit favorite this season.
3/29 at Orlando
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 vs ORL)

The LA LAKERS have gone 23-11 Over the total (67.6%) on the road so far this season.
3/29 at Indiana
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 243.5)

NEW YORK has dominated its weakest competition this season, going 23-1 SU and 18-5-1 ATS (78.3%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of less than 95.
3/29 at San Antonio
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK (-9 at SAS)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 31-11 SU and ATS (73.8%).
3/29 vs. LA Clippers
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+1.5 vs. LAC)

PHOENIX is 8-5-1 Over the total (61.5%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
3/29 at Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

SAN ANTONIO has gone 2-15 SU and 6-11 ATS (35.3%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/29 vs. New York
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+9 vs NYK)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 25-15 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
3/29: Over the total in CHARLOTTE-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 220)

* INDIANA is 57-37 Over the total at home in the One Day Rest scenario over the last three seasons
3/29: Over the total in INDIANA-LA LAKERS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 243.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 38-19 Over the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario over the last three seasons
3/29: Over the total in PHOENIX-OKLAHOMA CITY
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 120-35 SU and 99-56 ATS (63.9%) run.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER (-7 vs MIN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 88-57 SU and 85-57-3 ATS (59.9%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY DETROIT (+4 at WSH)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in non-conference games have gone 153-30 SU but just 76-104-3 ATS (42.2%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE GOLDEN STATE (-13 at CHA), FADE MIAMI (-13.5 vs POR)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 80-63 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 147-121 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 197-142 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in GSW-CHA (o/u at 220), PLAY OVER in POR-MIA (o/u at 210)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 191-116 SU but 137-166-4 ATS (45.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-9 at SAS)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 227-125 SU but just 148-193-11 ATS (43.4%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at ORL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 218-234 SU and 203-245-4 ATS (45.3%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE LA LAKERS (+4 at IND), FADE NEW YORK (-9 at SAS), FADE DALLAS (+1 at SAC)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 227-222 SU and 203-234-10 ATS (46.5%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-9 at SAS), FADE DALLAS (+1 at SAC)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 119-146 SU and 119-140-6 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE NEW YORK (-9 at SAS), FADE DALLAS (+1 at SAC)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 150-124 SU and 157-110-7 ATS (58.8%) run.
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-4 vs DET), PLAY PORTLAND (+13.5 at MIA), PLAY UTAH (+7 vs HOU)

Unusual defensive performances
Alternatively to #13 above, NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 143-54 SU and 111-84-2 ATS (56.9%) over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO (-1 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 26-55 SU but 42-39 ATS (51.9%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY UTAH (+7 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (158-177 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (212-204 ATS, 51%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER FADING DETROIT (+4 at WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 58-65 SU and 67-54-3 ATS (55.4%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY UTAH (+7 vs HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 182-224 ATS (44.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-103 SU and 53-70-3 ATS (43.1%).
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+4 at WSH), FADE HOUSTON (-7 at UTA), FADE UTAH (+7 vs HOU), FADE PORTLAND (+13.5 at MIA)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 41-57 ATS (41.8%) in the next game, including 18-31 ATS (36.7%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-7 at UTA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 (+3.4), 2(tie). ORLANDO +1.5 (+2.1) and MINNESOTA +7 (+2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -1 (+2.8), 2. MIAMI -13.5 (+1.1), 3. INDIANA -4 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +7 (+3.7), 2. BROOKLYN +3 (+2.9), 3. ORLANDO +1.5 (+2.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -1 (+2.2), 2. PHOENIX -2 (+0.4), 3. WASHINGTON -4 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-OKC OVER 227.5 (+1.5), 2. DET-WSH OVER 227.5 (+1.4), 3. LAC-ORL OVER 211.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CLE UNDER 212 (-3.2), 2. NYK-SAS UNDER 213 (-2.4), 3. CHI-BKN UNDER 216 (-2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3 (+3.5), 2. PHILADELPHIA +7.5 (+3.2), 3. MINNESOTA +7 (+2.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO -1 (+3.3), 2. MIAMI -13.5 (+2.0), 3. WASHINGTON -4 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-OKC OVER 227.5 (+6.2), 2. LAL-IND OVER 243.5 (+1.1) and DET-WSH OVER 227.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CLE UNDER 212 (-3.5), 2. CHI-BKN UNDER 216 (-2.8), 3. NYK-SAS UNDER 213 (-2.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(509) CHICAGO at (510) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the CHI-BRK series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(523) DALLAS at (524) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are on a 10-2-2 ATS run in the DAL-SAC series
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(505) DETROIT at (506) WASHINGTON
* Road teams/underdogs have won the last three ATS in the DET-WAS series
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(507) GOLDEN STATE at (508) CHARLOTTE
* CHARLOTTE has won the last four ATS hosting Golden State
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE ATS

(521) HOUSTON at (522) UTAH
* HOUSTON is 10-2-2 ATS at Utah since 2018
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(505) LA CLIPPERS at (506) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 10-2-2 ATS in the last 14 of the LAC-ORL series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(503) LA LAKERS at (504) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 5-1 ATS in the last six hosting LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY INDIANA ATS

(519) MINNESOTA at (520) DENVER
* MINNESOTA has won the last four ATS vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS

(517) NEW YORK at (518) SAN ANTONIO
* The last four games of the NYK-SAN series in San Antonio went Over the total
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(511) PHILADELPHIA at (512) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are on a 3-0 ATS streak in the PHI-CLE series
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(515) PHOENIX at (516) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are on 6-2-1 ATS run in PHO-OKC h2h series
System Match: PLAY PHOENIX ATS

(513) PORTLAND at (514) MIAMI
* FAVORITES are on 10-2 ATS run in POR-MIA h2h series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI ATS

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