The following is a collection of VSiN Analytics NFL Betting Trends featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Conf Champ Weekend. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Now, here are the DK Betting Splits NFL Systems and their updated performance records:

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past 1-1/2 seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 61-81 ATS (42.9%). The number for this supermajority in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 112-132 ATS (45.9%). Although these bettors are over .500 for the ’23 season, I’m still leaving this system on, as I believe they will return to norms down the stretch. The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports, if 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, I would still feel comfortable to fade em’.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT

NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 33-34 ATS (49.3%) and 46-43 ATS (51.5%) respectively going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can at least maintain.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NONE AS OF WEDNESDAY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and the number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last 1-1/2 seasons, these majority groups are just 42-56 ATS (42.9%) and 42-56 ATS (42.9%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #10, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group has performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 55-93 (37.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 59-77 (43.4%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-BAL

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 19-46 (29.2%) over the past 1-1/2 seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-BAL

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These VSiN Analytics NFL betting trends search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

These VSiN Analytics NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS THIS WEEKEND

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games

The following VSiN Analytics NFL betting trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 12 seasons.

NEITHER GAME IS A REMATCH THIS WEEKEND

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE THIS WEEKEND

This week’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -3.5 (+2.1), 2. SAN FRANCISCO -7 (+0.5)

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT +7 (+2.6)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: BALTIMORE -3.5 (+0.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: NONE THIS WEEKEND

This week’s Top 2 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-SF UNDER 51 (-1.5), 2. KC-BAL UNDER 44.5 (-0.3)

This week’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: KANSAS CITY +3.5 (+0.5)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: SAN FRANCISCO -7 (+0.2)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: DET-SF OVER 51 (+0.8)

This week’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: KC-BAL UNDER 44.5 (-0.9)

Here are 19 top VSiN Analytics NFL betting trends detailing various quarterback performance records in situations as a starter:

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 35.7
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+3.5 at BAL)

* Jared Goff (DET) is 25-23 SU but 33-15 ATS (68.8%) with current head coach Dan Campbell. The average line was +2, Team average PF: 24
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+7 at SF)

These are some of the top situational VSiN Analytics NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(319) KANSAS CITY at (320) BALTIMORE

* KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 road games against decent passing defenses (2-0 ATS this season)

* KANSAS CITY is 1-5-1 ATS this season against opposing teams who have had more than six days rest

* BALTIMORE is 8-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning record

System Match: 1 PLAY/FADE of KANSAS CITY, 1 PLAY on BALTIMORE

* KANSAS CITY is 7-0 to the Over in the last seven road games against efficient defenses (4-0 to Over this season)

* BALTIMORE is 9-0-1 to the Under in the last 10 January home games (1-0-1 ATS this season)

System Match: 1 PLAY on OVER, 1 PLAY on UNDER

(321) DETROIT at (322) SAN FRANCISCO

* DETROIT is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 against high-scoring teams (3-0 ATS this season)

* DETROIT is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games as an underdog (2-1 ATS this season)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 in the last 10 home games against decent rushing defenses (0-1 ATS this season)

System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

* DETROIT is 13-2 to the Under in the last 15 road games after having a turnover margin of +2 or better in their previous game (3-0 to Under this season)

* SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 to the Over in last 10 games as a home favorite of 7 or less points (4-0 to Over this season

* SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 to the Under in the last 10 playoff games (1-0 to Under this season)

System Match: 2 PLAYS on the UNDER, 1 PLAY on the OVER

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(319) KANSAS CITY at (320) BALTIMORE
* Over the total is 4-1 in last five in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(321) DETROIT at (322) SAN FRANCISCO
* Over the total is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings after a prior 8-0 Under run in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

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