Best bets for the BMW Championship

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BMW Championship

Lucas Glover sweated his way to a victory in the Memphis heat last weekend in the FedEx St. Jude Championship at a pre-tournament price of 75-1. Glover has won in back-to-back weeks and has vaulted up to fourth in the FedEx Cup point standings and has gone from 117th in the OWGR to 30th in two weeks. Despite losing -3.18 strokes tee to green (including almost three full strokes on approach), Glover gained almost three strokes with the putter in Sunday’s final round to stymie Patrick Cantlay in the playoff.

 

Cantlay shot the low round of the day Sunday with a bogey-free 64 but found the water on the first playoff hole and could not save par. On the other hand, Glover shook off his own water ball Sunday — his tee shot on the par-3 14th — salvaging bogey with a 30-footer.

Our nearest pursuer was Tommy Fleetwood, who had a chance to make the playoff with a birdie at 18 but fell one shot short to finish third along with Rory McIlroy. Fleetwood now has 22 top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour without a victory and the six-time DP World Tour winner is the first player on the tour to surpass $20 million in career earnings without a win.

Taylor Moore finished fifth while a seven-way tie for sixth rounded out the top 10. Those seven were Jordan Spieth, Cam Davis, Max Homa, Corey Conners, Russell Henley, Sungjae Im and Adam Schenk.

This week, the PGA Tour and the FedEx Cup Playoffs move to Chicago for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club.

McIlroy (15-2), the three-time FedEx Cup winner, sits third in the point standings and has not finished outside the top 10 in eight straight events, dating to the Wells Fargo the first week of May.

Scottie Scheffler (8-1) had a streak of eight consecutive top-5 or better finishes that spanned the Byron Nelson through the Scottish Open, but he has finished 23rd and 31st in his last two events courtesy of a shaky putter that has plagued him all season. He ranked 62nd out of 70 players for Strokes Gained: Putting last week.

The current FedEx Cup points leader, and a man who has a win on this course (2020 BMW Championship), is Jon Rahm (10-1). Rahm shot a 3-over first round on Thursday but did shoot 8 under over his last three rounds to finish T-37 in Memphis.

Cantlay (10-1) is the two-time defending champion of this event having won at Caves Valley in 2021 and at Wilmington last year.

Viktor Hovland (16-1) ranked second in the field last week for Strokes Gained: Approach but settled for T-13 despite being on the periphery of contention on Sunday.

Following in the market are Xander Schauffele (18-1), Collin Morikawa (22-1), Fleetwood (22-1), Homa (25-1), Spieth (28-1), Tyrrell Hatton (30-1), Im (35-1), Glover (35-1) and Hideki Matsuyama (35-1), who along with Davis (70-1), played his way into this week’s field bumping Mackenzie Hughes and Nick Hardy out of the top 50 in the FedEx Cup point standings. This week’s top 50 also have locked themselves into next year’s “signature events.”

The Event

​The BMW Championship serves as the penultimate event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the top 50 in the point standings playing this week. While this event started in 2007, its history dates back a long way. The event originated as the Western Open in 1889, running until 2006. The Western was predominantly played in the Chicago area at venues such as Cog Hill in Lemont and Butler National in Oak Brook. The Western Golf Association, based in Glenview, Ill., still serves as an organizer for this event and Chicago is still its most regular stop, but the BMW now rotates around the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions.

There is no 36-hole cut this week. The top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings after this event move on to the Tour Championship in Atlanta next week.

The Field

Here is this week’s field of 50 players and their current rankings and point tallies in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

1. Jon Rahm 3385.72

2. Scottie Scheffler 3237.94

3. Rory McIlroy 2954.10

4. Lucas Glover 2884.86

5. Patrick Cantlay 2642.81

6. Max Homa 2451.27

7. Viktor Hovland 2024.43

8. Wyndham Clark 1957.41

9. Brian Harman 1919.41

10. Tommy Fleetwood 1834.16

11. Keegan Bradley 1817.90

12. Rickie Fowler 1752.35

13. Tony Finau 1672.00

14. Taylor Moore 1632.81

15. Russell Henley 1618.36

16. Nick Taylor 1593.41

17. Si Woo Kim 1572.06

18. Tom Kim 1552.03

19. Xander Schauffele 1536.02

20. Adam Schenk 1535.81

21. Jason Day 1531.43

22. Collin Morikawa 1475.58

23. Emiliano Grillo 1442.89

24. Sepp Straka 1430.57

25. Corey Conners 1426.36

26. Tyrrell Hatton 1425.23

27. Jordan Spieth 1422.21

28. Sungjae Im 1420.42

29. Chris Kirk 1361.26

30. Sam Burns 1360.92

31. Sahith Theegala 1294.32

32. Justin Rose 1255.72

33. Kurt Kitayama 1241.58

34. Denny McCarthy 1192.45

35. Seamus Power 1147.05

36. Lee Hodges 1144.16

37. Adam Hadwin 1108.26

38. Byeong Hun An 1107.34

39. Adam Svensson 1079.91

40. Matt Fitzpatrick 1062.56

41. Andrew Putnam 1047.63

42. Eric Cole 1041.85

43. J.T. Poston 1036.72

44. Brendon Todd 1017.30

45. Cam Davis 1007.54

46. Cameron Young 981.40

47. Hideki Matsuyama 941.70

48. Tom Hoge 940.59

49. Harris English 939.59

50. Patrick Rodgers 939.27

The Course

This is the second time Olympia Fields Country Club will serve as the venue for the BMW Championship, the first coming in 2020. It’s located in Olympia Fields, about 25 miles south of downtown Chicago. The North Course has hosted numerous major championships: 1925 and 1961 PGA, 1928 and 2003 U.S. Open, 1997 U.S. Senior Open, 2015 U.S. Amateur, 2017 Women’s PGA Championship. It also annually hosts one of the most competitive college golf events, the Fighting Illini Invitational. ​Olympia Fields was founded in 1915. The first club president was Hall of Fame football coach Amos Alonzo Stagg, who was the head coach at the University of Chicago. Two-time British Open champion (1887, 1889) and Scottish golfer Willie Park Jr. was the original course designer.

The course has received numerous toughening renovations, the latest being in 2014. The track plays as a par-70 of 7,366 yards (sixth longest on this year’s PGA Tour schedule). It is a tight, classical parklands with tight Bentgrass/Poa Annua fairways at 26 yards on average (second narrowest on tour). The Kentucky Bluegrass rough is four to five inches high and will punish errant tee shots. In addition to the narrow fairways and thick rough, there are strategically placed deep fairway bunkers. Water comes into play on only five holes. The tabletop greens are fast (12.5 stimpmeter) and are Bentgrass/Poa Annua. The greens are firm and sloping, and some of the smaller ones on tour (5,238 square feet on average).

In 2020, Olympia Fields averaged +1.82 over par (Rahm won at -4) and it played as the fifth-toughest course over the last four years. Only five players broke par that entire week.

While there is only one par-4 longer than 475 yards, eight of them play at 445 yards or longer. In 2020, not a single par-4 played under par. Led by the mammoth 251-yard eighth hole, the par-3s are among the most challenging on tour, averaging 3.12 strokes. Both par-5s measure over 600 yards and are among the toughest group of par-5s, averaging 4.87 with a Birdie or Better rate of only 29%.

Comparative or correlated courses to Olympia Fields include Winged Foot, Oak Hill, Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines South, Quail Hollow, Muirfield Village and TPC Potomac.

BMW Championship Recent History

2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14/270); Wilmington; 16-1

2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27/261); Caves Valley; 25-1*

2020: Jon Rahm (-4/276); Olympia Fields; 10-1**

2019: Justin Thomas (-25/263); Medinah; 16-1

2018: Keegan Bradley (-20/260); Aronimink; 140-1***

2017: Marc Leishman (-23/261); Conway Farms; 45-1

2016: Dustin Johnson (-23/265); Crooked Stick; 10-1

2015: Jason Day (-22/262); Conway Farms; 15-2

2014: Billy Horschel (-14/266); Cherry Hills; 66-1

2013: Zach Johnson (-16/268); Conway Farms; 40-1

2012: Rory McIlroy (-20/268); Crooked Stick; 7-1

2011: Justin Rose (-13/271); Cog Hill; 66-1

2010: Dustin Johnson (-9/275); Cog Hill; 33-1

Playoff win over Bryson DeChambeau – *

Playoff win over Dustin Johnson – **

Playoff win over Justin Rose – ***

Trends and Angles

Of this week’s field of 50 players, 24 of them played at Olympia Fields in the 2020 BMW Championship. Here is how they fared:

1st – Jon Rahm (-4)

T-3 – Hideki Matsuyama (-2)

5th – Tony Finau (-1)

T-6 – Matt Fitzpatrick (E)

T-8 – Brendon Todd (+1)

T-12 – Brian Harman, Rory McIlroy, Byeong Hun An, Patrick Cantlay (+3)

T-16 – Tyrrell Hatton (+4)

T-20 – Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa (+5)

T-25 – Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele (+6)

T-33 – Corey Conners (+7)

T-40 – Adam Hadwin, Harris English, Viktor Hovland (+8)

T-51 – Nick Taylor (+11)

T-56 – Sungjae Im (+12)

T-59 – Max Homa, J.T. Poston (+13)

64th – Jason Day (+14)

T-65 – Tom Hoge (+15)

Statistical Analysis

In 2020, Olympia Fields ranked seventh out of 29 courses in approach difficulty and had the third-toughest greens to hit on the PGA Tour.

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 36 rounds)