Sony Open in Hawaii
Chris Kirk shot an 8-under 65 and held his 54-hole overnight lead to win The Sentry at 29 under by one stroke over Sahith Theegala last weekend. Jordan Spieth finished third and Byeong Hun An was fourth. Rounding out the top 5 was a five-way tie for fifth that included world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa (our closest outright contender), Brian Harman, J.T. Poston, and Sungjae Im, who set an all-time PGA Tour record for most birdies in a 72-hole event with 34.
Kirk (35-1 this week) opened in the market as high as 200-1. He got back in the winner’s circle last year at the Honda Classic, his first tour win in eight years, and now earns another Masters invitation and rises from 52 to 25 in the Official World Golf Rankings. Kirk is a two-time runner-up (2014, 2021) in this week’s PGA Tour event at the Sony Open in Hawaii and finished third here last year.
The PGA Tour stays on the islands but moves to the island of O’ahu for the Sony Open in Hawaii’s capital city of Honolulu. Ludvig Åberg (14-1) assumes the favorite role here despite a disappointing T-47 last week in Maui. However, the talented Swede did shoot 63 in a bogey-free Sunday final round.
Tyrrell Hatton (16-1), like Åberg and Matt Fitzpatrick (16-1), makes his event debut here this week.
Russell Henley (22-1) won the Sony Open in 2013 and was runner-up here to Hideki Matsuyama (50-1) two years ago. Harman (25-1) was fourth here in 2018.
Corey Conners (33-1) was third here in 2019. New PGA Tour Rookie of the Year Eric Cole (35-1) follows in the market as do J.T. Poston and An (both 40-1) and Theegala (45-1), who are all off top-5 finishes last week at The Sentry.
Justin Rose tied the Kapalua course record this past Sunday with a round of 61 (12 under). He is priced at 45-1 along with defending Sony Open champion Si Woo Kim.
This week’s event also marks a couple of notable returns, including Will Zalatoris (40-1) in his first official PGA Tour event since back surgery last April and also Gary Woodland (125-1), who is just four months removed from having surgery to remove a lesion from his brain.
The Event
The Sony Open in Hawaii has been contested at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu since the event’s inception in 1965. Waialae has the third-longest tenure as an annual course on the PGA Tour behind Colonial Country Club and Pebble Beach Golf Links. It was originally contested as a mid-fall event during its first five years before being moved earlier in the calendar to the late winter in 1971. Over the 55-year history of the event, there have only been five multiple champions: Hubert Green, Corey Pavin, Lanny Wadkins, Ernie Els and Jimmy Walker. In 2017, Justin Thomas won this event and set multiple tournament records in the process, including the tournament scoring record of 253 (-27), the course record and tournament low round record (59 in Round 1), the 36-hole record of 123 (-17) and the 54-hole record of 188 (-22).
This year’s Sony Open is the first of three events (American Express Championship, Farmers Insurance Open) that will help determine the final five players for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am next month.
The Field
36 golfers who played in last week’s Sentry event are making the short trip to Honolulu this week.
This will still be one of the strongest Sony Open fields ever with 15 of the top 40 and 33 of the top 65 in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance.
The Course
Waialae Country Club is a flat, bayside track where the scoring has gotten lower over the years. It plays as a par-70 of 7,044 yards and was designed in 1927 by Seth Raynor (who also designed the Old White TPC, which hosted the Greenbrier Classic) and was last restored by Tom Doak in 2017.
Waialae CC is known as a shot-maker’s golf course distinguished by its narrow corridors, sharp doglegs, unpredictable Bermuda rough and firm greens. It is a positional course that has effectively neutralized any advantages held by bombers off the tee. Essentially you have to get the ball from Point A to Point B and make putts. The course is all Bermudagrass, including the TifDwarf Bermuda greens, which run average at 11.5 on the stimpmeter. The greens average 7,100 square feet, eighth largest on the PGA Tour.
The rough is three inches of Bermudagrass, so the bombers who try to cut the corners off the tee may end up with fliers coming out of the thick grass.
The track has ranked as the easiest (2013, 2016, 2017), second-easiest (2014, 2015) or third-easiest (2019) par-70 on the PGA Tour in recent years. It played as the 12th-easiest course overall on tour last year with an average round score of 68.75. Waialae is very much still a second-shot golf course despite renovations over the years.
The layout has six doglegs, tight corners, and palm-tree-lined fairways. Waialae has 83 bunkers throughout and four water holes. It is also one of the flattest courses on the PGA Tour having the second-lowest elevation.
Wind, or lack thereof, is ordinarily a determining factor and the last two years provide the clearest evidence. In 2020, Waialae was hit with upwards of 35-40-mph winds over the first two days and the winning score was just 11 under. In 2021, the winds were at around 12-14 mph and the winning score was 21 under. Last year’s event featured light winds in the single digits and 23 under was the winning score.
According to Data Golf, Waialae CC is second only to Augusta National in terms of predictive course history, so course form triumphs over recent form more often than not.
Comparable courses to Waialae include Port Royal (Bermuda Championship), Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), Coco Beach (Puerto Rico Open), El Camaleon (Mayakoba Golf Classic), Sea Island GC (RSM Classic), Sedgefield CC (Wyndham Championship).
You will notice that Kapalua is not a strong comparison to Waialae. While Kapalua has enormous amounts of slope and is a physically demanding walk, Waialae is one of the flattest courses on tour and is perhaps the easiest walk. The courses are also completely different in size. Whereas Kapalua has massively wide fairways, Waialae has tight tree-lined corridors. The greens are also dissimilar from each other. Kapalua’s are much bigger with more slope and grain while Waialae’s are smaller, flatter and easier to make putts.
Recent History/Winners
2023: Si Woo Kim (-18/262); 40-1
2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23/257); 18-1*
2021: Kevin Na (-21/259); 66-1
2020: Cameron Smith (-11/269); 55-1**
2019: Matt Kuchar (-22/258); 40-1
2018: Patton Kizzire (-17/263); 80-1***
2017: Justin Thomas (-27/253); 14-1
2016: Fabian Gomez (-20/260); 100-1****
2015: Jimmy Walker (-23/257); 18-1
2014: Jimmy Walker (-17/263); 40-1
2013: Russell Henley (-24/256); 100-1
2012: Johnson Wagner (-13/267); 125-1
2011: Mark Wilson (-16/264); 80-1
2010: Ryan Palmer (-15/265); 250-1
Playoff win over Russell Henley – *
Playoff win over Brendan Steele – **
Playoff win over James Hahn – ***
Playoff win over Brandt Snedeker – ****
Trends and Angles
In eight of the last 11 years, having an extra week on the islands has proved to be an advantage.
| Year | Winner | Previous Week Result at Kapalua |
| 2023 | Si Woo Kim | DNP |
| 2022 | Hideki Matsuyama | 13th |
| 2021 | Kevin Na | 13th |
| 2020 | Cameron Smith | DNP |
| 2019 | Matt Kuchar | 19th |
| 2018 | Patton Kizzire | 15th |
| 2017 | Justin Thomas | 1st |
| 2016 | Fabian Gomez | 6th |
| 2015 | Jimmy Walker | 2nd |
| 2014 | Jimmy Walker | 21st |
| 2013 | Russell Henley | DNP |
| 2012 | Johnson Wagner | 9th |
- 17 of the last 25 winners of the Sony Open had played the Tournament of Champions the week before.
- 5 of the last 9 winners of the Sony Open had already won in the fall or in the swing season.
- Only 5 winners of this event, since 2000, have been under 30.
Statistical Analysis
Six of the last eight winners of the Sony Open in Hawaii rated seventh or better for Strokes Gained: Approach during their respective winning weeks including Si Woo Kim, who led the field in the category last year.
With many back-to-front sloping greens and pins tucked into the corners, players must be precise with the irons.
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 50 rounds)
- Lucas Glover 42.6
- Mark Hubbard 42
- Gary Woodland 41.4
- Russell Henley 39.1
- Hideki Matsuyama 35.8
- Eric Cole 34.9
- Alex Smalley 34.3
- Chez Reavie 33.8
- Andrew Putnam 33.2
- Corey Conners 31.6
- Aaron Rai 30.7
- Will Zalatoris 29.3
- J.J. Spaun 28.4
The vast majority of approach shots at Waialae range from 150-200 yards.
Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards (Last 50 rounds)
- Ryan Moore 10.7
- Ben Martin 10.1
- Tom Hoge 9.5
- Lucas Glover 8.9
- Brandon Wu 8.9
- Aaron Rai 8.5
- Callum Tarren 8.1
- Doug Ghim 7.8
- Eric Cole 7.4
- Greyson Sigg 7.3
- Hideki Matsuyama 7
- Keith Mitchell 6.9
- Justin Lower 6.8
- Michael Kim 6.2
Proximity Gained 175-200 (Last 50 rounds)
- Gary Woodland 17.7
- Chez Reavie 16.6
- Eric Cole 14
- Will Gordon 13.1
- Michael Kim 11.3
- Hideki Matsuyama 11.1
- Justin Lower 10.8
- Kurt Kitayama 10.3
- Taylor Pendrith 8.9
- Emiliano Grillo 8.9
- Austin Eckroat 8.3
- Lucas Glover 7.8
Note: Average Feet Gained Toward The Hole from the Shot Distance.
Driving Accuracy is 4% tougher at Waialae than the average PGA Tour course. Most players club down off the tee with irons on numerous holes as having the proper angle on approach shots, and staying out of the rough is more vital than distance.
Fairways Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Russell Henley 74.2
- Aaron Rai 72
- Brendon Todd 69.3
- Si Woo Kim 68.8
- Zac Blair 68
- Lucas Glover 66.9
- Ryan Moore 66.1
- Doug Ghim 63.4
- David Lingmerth 58.4
- Tyler Duncan 51.8
- Martin Laird 50.3
Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Russell Henley 46.9
- Lucas Glover 45.4
- Matthew NeSmith 43.7
- Doug Ghim 40.4
- Andrew Putnam 39.9
- Josh Teater 35.9
- Tyler Duncan 33.6
- Brendon Todd 32.5
- Carson Young 31.6
- J.J. Spaun 31.5
- Aaron Rai 31.2
- Corey Conners 31.2
Waialae is like most par-70 courses in that the layout only has two par-5s, four par-3s, and 12 par-4s.
Strokes Gained Par-4s (Last 50 rounds)
- Tyrrell Hatton 65.5
- Russell Henley 52.2
- Denny McCarthy 45
- Alex Noren 43.3
- Ludvig Åberg 42.1
- J.T. Poston 41
- Lucas Glover 38.3
- Byeong Hun An 36.9
- Corey Conners 36.6
- Will Zalatoris 36.4
- Adam Svensson 34
- Aaron Rai 33.8
- Hideki Matsuyama 33.7
- Luke List 33.6
- Kevin Streelman 33.3
- Adam Hadwin 33.1
Assuming players are on point playing target golf the next step is to convert birdies and judge the grains on the greens.
Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 50 rounds)
- Eric Cole 52.1
- Ludvig Åberg 43.9
- Will Zalatoris 37.1
- Luke List 36.8
- Tyrrell Hatton 36.7
- Sahith Theegala 30.4
- J.T. Poston 29.8
- Justin Suh 28.9
- Lucas Glover 27.7
- Keegan Bradley 26.8
- Taylor Montgomery 24.9
- Justin Rose 23.9
- Adam Svensson 21.9
- Byeong Hun An 20.2
While there are some undulations around pin placements, overall, these greens at Waialae are some of the flattest and easiest to putt on the PGA Tour.
Strokes Gained Bermuda Putting (Last 50 rounds)
- Ben Taylor 40.2
- Maverick McNealy 39.5
- Alex Noren 36.4
- Andrew Putnam 35.7
- Taylor Montgomery 34.2 (39 rounds)
- Tyrrell Hatton 31.2
- Matt Kuchar 27.9
- Ben Griffin 25.1
- Matt Fitzpatrick 25.1
- Brendon Todd 24.5
- Eric Cole 23.9 (43 rounds)
- Harry Hall 23.2 (34 rounds)
- Billy Horschel 22.6
- Sahith Theegala 21.8
- Justin Suh 21.7
- Aaron Baddeley 21.1
- Kevin Kisner 20.4
The gnarly Bermuda rough can be tough to scramble out of around the greens here at Waialae.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green (Last 50 rounds)
- Brendon Todd 26
- Aaron Baddeley 25.8
- Alex Noren 21.1
- SH Kim 17.6
- Troy Merritt 17.4
- Denny McCarthy 16
- Matt Kuchar 15.3
- Zac Blair 14.9
- Sahith Theegala 14.6
- Harry Hall 14.6
- Byeong Hun An 14.2
- Justin Rose 13.8
- Ben Griffin 13.7
- J.T. Poston 13.2
- Greyson Sigg 13.1
Past performance at Waialae is of massive importance this week as it’s the second-most predictive out of any course on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National features a greater correlation with course history.
Waialae Course History: Total Strokes Gained (Last 36 rounds)
- Matt Kuchar 74.1
- Chris Kirk 54.3
- Webb Simpson 51.3
- Stewart Cink 39.1
- Corey Conners 35.5 (20 rounds)
- Russell Henley 34.3
- Justin Rose 31.2 (18 rounds)
- Chez Reavie 31.1
- Ryan Palmer 29
- Harris English 28.9
- Brian Harman 27.4
- Brendon Todd 26.2 (34 rounds)
- Si Woo Kim 25.5 (22 rounds)
- Zach Johnson 25.3
Selections
Corey Conners (28-1, BetMGM)
Conners has gone third (2019), 12th (2020), 11th (2022) and 12th (2023) on his last four visits to Honolulu, which have included rounds of 64, 64, 64, 64, 65, 66 and 66 within his last 12 rounds here. He averages a score of 67.05 across his last 20 rounds at Waialae.
The Canadian lost more than five strokes putting at Kapalua last week, but these greens at Waialae are flat and easier to putt as compared with the undulating greens in Maui.
Conners ranked top 10 in last week’s field for Strokes Gained: Approach and was second best in Sunday’s final round.
J.T. Poston (33-1, FanDuel)
The Postman finished T-5 last week despite not gaining on Approach.
His finish of 20th in 2019 is his best here, but he has won at Sedgefield, which has shown some strong correlations with winners here (Russell Henley: 2013 Sony winner, 2023 Wyndham runner-up; Si-Woo Kim: 2023 Sony winner, 2016 Wyndham winner; Kevin Na: 2021 Sony winner, 2021 Wyndham runner-up; Brandt Snedeker: 2007 and 2018 Wyndham winner; 2016 Sony runner-up).
Adam Svensson (50-1, BetMGM)
Svensson was in really good shape toward the end of 2023, when he made his last 11 cuts and recorded six top-25 finishes including a fifth at the season-ending RSM Classic where he led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
The Canadian was seventh here in 2022 and was the first-round leader in 2019 with an opening round of 61.
Lucas Glover (60-1, Superbook Sports)
Glover is another player who struggled on the Kapalua greens last week, losing seven strokes over four rounds (second to last in last week’s field).
However, Glover also led the tournament for the Strokes Gained: Approach and is the best in this field on Approach over the last 50 rounds.
While he missed the cut here last year, Glover went on to win consecutive events last season at the Wyndham and FedEx St. Jude, so he is a different player now and he did finish fifth in this event in 2022.
Keegan Bradley (60-1, FanDuel)
Bradley follows the pattern here of another player who struggled on the greens, fourth to last at Kapalua, but struck the ball well ranking seventh in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.
He does not have spectacular form here and has missed the cut a couple of times but has finished top-12 at Waialae twice in the last four years.
All six of Bradley’s PGA Tour wins have come on par-70s, including last year at The Travelers.
Tom Hoge (120-1, FanDuel)
Hoge was OK putting last week but struggled around the greens.
On the other hand, he was fourth for Strokes Gained: Approach.
He finished third here in 2018.
Maverick McNealy (275-1, Circa Sports)
McNealy missed a little over five months last season because of a shoulder injury but returned for the final two events of 2023 and finished the season with a made cut at the RSM.
He is a bit of a speculative play with little to no form coming in, but he did finish seventh here last year.
He also got married back in December, so we could have a little “Nappy Factor” play down Narrative Street. He’s certainly worth some placement market bets.
Note: Matchups and placement market bets will be posted at VSiN.com/picks on Wednesday.
