BMW PGA Championship:
Last week at the Irish Open held at Royal County Down, one of the greatest courses in the world, it looked like Rory McIlroy, one of the greatest players of his generation, was going to win on home soil in Northern Ireland for the first time as he grew up just an hour away from the course.
He held a two-shot lead with four holes to play, but Rasmus Højgaard, a pre-tournament price of 25/1, birdied four of the last five holes to pass McIlroy as he carded a bogey on 17 and barely missed the eagle putt needed to tie for a playoff at 18.
This week, the DP World Tour heads to Wentworth in Surrey, England for its flagship event at the BMW PGA Championship. Once again, McIlroy (+550) is the tournament favorite in this event that he last won ten years ago in 2014 and has finished runner-up twice since in 2018 and 2022.
Shane Lowry (14/1) finished runner-up to McIlroy here in 2014 but returned the favor, beating his fellow Irishman by one stroke here two years ago.
Tommy Fleetwood (10/1) and Adam Scott (14/1) both finished in the Top 7 here last year, but Scott has been in the better form of late with three Top 5s, including two runners-up, in his last five starts.
Aaron Rai (20/1) was the runner-up to Ryan Fox (75/1) here last year.
Billy Horschel (22/1) became just the second American (Arnold Palmer, 1975) in history to win this event back in 2021.
The next rung of the market is headed up by 2017 BMW PGA Champion Alex Noren (25/1) and 2015 BMW PGA Champion Byeong Hun An (25/1), along with Robert MacIntyre (25/1), Matt Fitzpatrick (28/1), and Rasmus Højgaard (30/1).
The Event
The BMW PGA Championship was established in 1955 as the British PGA Championship. It was typically played near the end of May but was moved to September in 2019 to avoid conflict with the PGA Championship and has remained in that spot of the calendar ever since. The winner of the tournament is given an exemption into the U.S. Open and the next three Open Championships. A who’s who of European players have victories at his event including Nick Faldo (1978, 1980, 1981, 1989), Bernhard Langer (1987, 1993, 1995), Colin Montgomerie (1998, 1999, 2000), Seve Ballesteros (1983, 1991), Ian Woosnam (1988, 1997), Francesco Molinari (2018), Rory McIlroy (2014), and Tony Jacklin (1972, 1982).
The Course
The West Course at Wentworth Club in Surrey, England (about 25 miles southwest of London) has hosted the BMW PGA since 1984. The headquarters of the European Tour is located on the grounds of the club. The course was designed in 1926 by Harry Colt with Ernie Els and European Tour Design, which did two renovations in 2009 and 2016. Wentworth West is a Par 72 of 7,267 yards. It is a tree-lined track with tight fairways and some long rough. Creeping Bentgrass greens replaced Bent/Poa Annua in the 2016 renovation. The greens also have many shaved run-offs. The most recent renovations were made with the intent of getting back to the original Colt design by encouraging more shot-making and allowing more shots to roll onto the greens.
Here is the official scorecard for this week’s event courtesy of the DP World Tour:
The DP World Tour also provides a hole-by-hole flyover of the course:
Every Hole at Wentworth | 2021 BMW PGA Championship (youtube.com)
BMW PGA Championship Recent History
2023: Ryan Fox (-18/270); 50/1
2022: Shane Lowry (-17/199); 18/1*
2021: Billy Horschel (-19/269); 28/1
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-19/269); 16/1
2019: Danny Willett (-20/268); 66/1
2018: Francesco Molinari (-17/271); 22/1
2017: Alex Noren (-11/277); 20/1
2016: Chris Wood (-9/279); 66/1
2015: Byeong-Hun An (-21/267); 100/1
2014: Rory McIlroy (-14/274); 14/1
2013: Matteo Manassero (-10/278); 66/1**
2012: Luke Donald (-15/273); 8/1
2011: Luke Donald (-6/278); 15/2***
2010: Simon Khan (-6/278); 200/1
Shortened to 54 holes due to Operation London Bridge – *
Playoff Win over Simon Khan & Marc Warren – **
Playoff Win over Lee Westwood – ***
Trends & Angles
- In the last 14 years, the BMW Champion has rated in the Top 4 for GIR eight times (led the field four times, including two of the last three years). In the last nine years, the BMW Champion has rated in the Top 5 for Scrambling seven times (led the field four times). 10 of the last 14 BMW Champions had at least one Top 10 finish within five starts before the event. Six of the last 7 BMW Champions and 12 of the last 14 have had at least one Top 10 in the event prior to their victories.
Selections
Tommy Fleetwood 12/1 Bet365
The low price will not attract many backers this week, but Fleetwood could be the contrarian favorite play this week. He earned the silver medal at the Olympic Games and finished in the Top 5 at the BMW Championship at Castle Pines. His finish of sixth last year here at Wentworth was the best of his career.
Shane Lowry 14/1 DraftKings
The 2022 event winner could factor here with his home Open out of the way from last week. Lowry has shown well recently in the big events with a sixth in The Open at Royal Troon and an eighth at the TOUR Championship. Aside from that 2022 victory at Wentworth, he also has a runner-up and two other Top 6 finishes in the last ten years here.
Alex Noren 28/1 Bet365
Noren is another former winner here at Wentworth courtesy of his elite short game, which is still the strongest part of his game, ranking fourth for Scrambling and 9th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green this season on the PGA TOUR. The Swede also ranked fourth in Bogey Avoidance and 7th for Adjusted Scoring Average this season.
Justin Rose 35/1 BetMGM
At 44, the opportunities for Justin Rose to win are becoming fewer and fewer, so he is going for career milestones at this point. The BMW PGA Championship is one of those milestones for the Englishman having finished twice as the runner-up here.
Laurie Canter 55/1 FanDuel
After earning his maiden DP World Tour victory at the European Open in Germany earlier this summer, Canter’s putter has gone a bit cold. However, he made a change last week at Royal County Down and had good results on the greens. In 2021, Canter finished runner-up here to Billy Horschel on debut.
Bernd Wiesberger 60/1 FanDuel
Wiesberger ranks third on the DP World Tour for Greens In Regulation, 4th for Strokes Gained: Approach, and fourth for Scrambling. While he has never contended for a win here, he has made nine of 11 career cuts at Wentworth, and he has been arguably the most consistent player this season on the DP World Tour yet to win in 2024.
