Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets and Golf Odds

Charles Schwab Challenge

Xander Schauffele finally captured his elusive first major championship victory, leading gate to wire at last week’s PGA Championship held at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky. Schauffele had not won anywhere in two years and had been left in Rory McIlroy’s dust on the Sunday back nine the previous week at the Wells Fargo Championship. 

While Schauffele set the all-time major championship scoring record at 21 under, he was not without his pursuers on Sunday. Viktor Hovland briefly held the lead after Schauffele had opened the door with a bogey at the 10th, but Schauffele birdied the next two holes and parred his way to the 18th, where birdie was enough to win by one.

Bryson DeChambeau’s fading hopes were reignited with an approach to three feet at the 16th hole and he got up and down for another at the last to move ahead of Hovland and alongside Schauffele, who was about to play his approach to the 17th from a fairway bunker.

Schauffele missed the green but scrambled for par and went on to match DeChambeau’s closing four to win a major championship for the first time. 

Thomas Detry and Collin Morikawa, who was the 54-hole co-leader and made only one birdie on Sunday at the 18th, finished T-4. 

Rounding out the top 10 were Shane Lowry and Justin Rose at T-6 and a quartet of players at T-8 with Billy Horschel, Robert MacIntyre, Louisville local Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler, who got in a bit of trouble on Friday with the Louisville Metro Police Department for refusing to stop at the scene of a fatal accident at the course entrance. The World No. 1’s arraignment has been delayed until June. 

Scheffler will lead the field this week in Fort Worth, Texas, at the Charles Schwab Challenge where he finished third in 2023 and second (playoff loss to best friend Sam Burns) in 2022. Scheffler is +280 this time to go one place better. 

Morikawa (14-1) also lost in a playoff here in 2020.

Jordan Spieth is a former winner (2016) and three-time runner-up (2015, 2017, 2021) at Colonial Country Club and shares a 22-1 price tag with Max Homa. 

Tony Finau (35-1) finished runner-up here in 2019 and was on the first page of the leaderboard most of last weekend before eventually finishing T-18. 

Brian Harman has three top-10 finishes at Colonial and is part of a large group of players priced at 40-1, including Harris English, Min Woo Lee, Si Woo Kim and Sungjae Im. 

Defending champion Emiliano Grillo, who won for us last year, is 150-1 while Adam Schenk, who lost in the playoff to Grillo, is 100-1. 

Other former Colonial champions in this week’s field include 2014 winner Adam Scott (50-1), 2018 winner Justin Rose (60-1), 2015 winner Chris Kirk (66-1), 2020 winner Daniel Berger (70-1), 2010 and 2012 winner Zach Johnson (300-1), 2017 winner Kevin Kisner (1500-1) and 2007 winner Rory Sabbatini (2500-1). 

The Event

The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club was initially established in 1946 and is the longest non-major event to be held at the same site on the PGA Tour. Much like the Memorial Tournament is for Jack Nicklaus and Bay Hill is for Arnold Palmer, the tournament at Colonial is associated with the late Ben Hogan, who was a resident of Fort Worth and won this event five times (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959). 

Annika Sörenstam played in the 2003 tournament and became the first woman to play in a PGA Tour event in 58 years since Babe Zaharias made three cuts as an amateur in 1945. Sörenstam’s participation drew high media attention, but she shot 71 and 74 and missed the cut by four strokes. 

Due to its invitational status, the Charles Schwab Challenge field is just 132 players, with 65 players and ties making the weekend cut. In 2020, the tournament was held June 11-14 as the first PGA Tour event staged since the interruption of the regular schedule in mid-March because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the interests of maximum health and safety, the event had no spectators, a PGA Tour first.

Charles Schwab took over as the title sponsor beginning a deal in 2019. Previous sponsors were Dean & Deluca (2016-2017), Crowne Plaza (2007-2015), Bank of America (2003-2006), MasterCard (1996-2002) and Southwestern Bell (1989-1994).

Many of golf’s legends have won this tournament, including Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959), Sam Snead (1950), Cary Middlecoff (1951), Roberto Di Vincenzo (1957), Tommy Bolt (1958), Julius Boros (1960, 1963), Arnold Palmer (1962), Billy Casper (1964, 1968), Gene Littler (1971), Lee Trevino (1976, 1978), Ben Crenshaw (1977, 1990), Fuzzy Zoeller (1981), Jack Nicklaus (1982), Lanny Wadkins (1988), Nick Price (1994, 2002), Tom Watson (1998) and Phil Mickelson (2000). 

The Field

Here is the field of 132 players for this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge:

Field Updates:

• Olin Browne, Nick Dunlap, and Stephan Jaeger withdrew on Sunday; Jorge Campillo and Ryan Fox IN off the alternate list. 
• Viktor Hovland withdrew on Sunday; Wesley Bryan IN off the alternate list.

The Course

Colonial Country Club was opened in 1936 by Marvin Leonard, and the course was designed by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell with a Keith Foster redesign in 2008. The most recent redesign was done last year by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner. It is in Fort Worth, Texas, just five minutes northwest of Texas Christian University. The course is nicknamed “Hogan’s Alley” in honor of Ben Hogan, who won five times on his home track. Colonial is a classical par-70 tree-lined parklands design that plays at 7,289 yards. It has played at a scoring average of 70.42 (+0.42) and has ranked as the 10th-most-difficult course on the PGA Tour over the last five years. 

What makes Colonial difficult are the tight fairways (27.5 yards average fairway width — fourth narrowest on tour) and the smaller greens (5,000 square feet — fifth smallest on tour). 

The fairways and rough (2.5-3 inches) are Bermudagrass and the greens are Bentgrass. The greens will roll fast at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. 

Power and distance are not necessarily much of an advantage here. Players will also tee off in a different direction after every hole. Colonial is a much tighter course off the tee than what we see out of other Maxwell designs like Augusta National and Southern Hills. Gil Hanse redesigned Southern Hills for last year’s PGA to rave reviews. Colonial Country Club is hoping for the same thing as Hanse will begin the renovation here after this past year’s event. 

Four water hazards are in play on six holes along with 64 bunkers. Twelve of the 18 holes are doglegs. Long-term history shows that the best way to win here is to hit the fairways, be precise with the irons, be able to shape shots in multiple directions and putt the lights out as this is seen as a “ball strikers’ course.”

Colonial opens with a par-5 and a short par-4 that are the two easiest holes on the course. Then, the “Horrible Horseshoe” (holes 3-5) begins, and those are three of the toughest holes on the layout. Since 2003, this is the second-most-difficult three-hole stretch on tour and plays at a combined 0.49 shots over par.

The two par-5s are the first (565 yards) and the 11th, measuring over 635 yards, often playing as a three-shot hole to reach the green.

The four par-3s are all on the longer side and are one of the more difficult par-3s on tour. 

In terms of the Hanse $21 million renovations, most of the greens have been lowered, and some have shifted slightly back or to either side a few yards and could be more receptive targets. Several barrancas, which are dry streambeds to channel water during rain periods for better drainage, have been added to the course on holes 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 16, 17 and 18. 

Furthermore, many trees and 20 bunkers were removed. The removal of trees brightens the course a bit as Hanse felt it was too dark, but it also allows potential windy conditions to play even more of a factor.

The course was also lengthened by 89 yards.  

Correlated courses to Colonial include Harbour Town, Sedgefield, Innisbrook, Pebble Beach, Southern Hills, TPC Sawgrass and Waialae. 

Here is a breakdown of the course from the official scorecard: 

Recent History/Winners

2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8/272); 70-1*

2022: Sam Burns (-9/271); 30-1**

2021: Jason Kokrak (-14/266); 50-1

2020: Daniel Berger (-15/265); 70-1***

2019: Kevin Na (-13/267); 70-1

2018: Justin Rose (-20/260); 20-1

2017: Kevin Kisner (-10/270); 33-1

2016: Jordan Spieth (-17/263); 7-1

2015: Chris Kirk (-12/268); 35-1

2014: Adam Scott (-9/271); 18-1****

2013: Boo Weekley (-14/266); 100-1

2012: Zach Johnson (-12/268); 16-1

2011: David Toms (-15/265); 33-1

2010: Zach Johnson (-21/259); 50-1*****

Playoff win over Adam Schenk – *

Playoff win over Scottie Scheffler – **

Playoff win over Collin Morikawa – ***

Playoff win over Jason Dufner – ****

Tournament Scoring Record – *****

Tournament Trends

Age is more than just a number

• Other than Sam Burns in 2022, Daniel Berger in 2020 and Jordan Spieth in 2016, 17 of the last 20 winners at Colonial have been over age 30. 

Experience matters

• Of the last 14 winners, only Burns in 2022, Berger in 2020 and then-World No. 1 Adam Scott (2014) had fewer than three career starts at Colonial.
• You have to go back to 2001 for the last time a player (Sergio Garcia) won his first PGA Tour title at Colonial.
• Four of the last eight winners posted a T-14 finish of better at Colonial the season before their win.

Incoming form

• Each of the last 11 winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge has posted a top-8 finish within their six most recent starts heading into Colonial.

Statistical Analysis

Colonial has tight fairways (27.5 yards on average) and small greens (5,000 square feet), so more of a premium is placed on being accurate with the irons. Thirteen of the last 16 winners ranked inside the top 10 for GIR%, and 12 of those 13 ranked inside the top seven.

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 24 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 29.9
2. Akshay Bhatia 24.5
3. Ryan Moore 22.2
4. Adam Svensson 19
5. Tom Hoge 18.2
6. Aaron Rai 18.2
7. Si Woo Kim 17.1
8. Tony Finau 17.1
9. Keith Mitchell 16.3
10. Lucas Glover 16.3
11. Andrew Putnam 13.4
12. Ben Martin 13.3
13. Parker Coody 12.5
14. Dylan Wu 12.2
15. Daniel Berger 12

Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 46.8
2. Tom Hoge 37.8
3. Tony Finau 31.6
4. Akshay Bhatia 26.8
5. Keith Mitchell 25.4
6. Si Woo Kim 25.1
7. Aaron Rai 23.3
8. Lucas Glover 23.2
9. Ryan Moore 20.6
10. Greyson Sigg 18.2
11. Andrew Novak 18.1
12. Keegan Bradley 17.1
13. Austin Eckroat 16.9
14. Joel Dahmen 16.2
15. Sam Ryder 15.5
16. Doug Ghim 15.5

Greens In Regulation Gained (Last 24 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 35.1
2. Kevin Yu 25.1
3. Tony Finau 23.8
4. Keegan Bradley 23.7
5. Sepp Straka 22.4
6. Aaron Rai 21.3
7. Martin Laird 20.9
8. Max Homa 19.5
9. Joel Dahmen 19.2
10. Brian Harman 19
11. Kevin Tway 18.7
12. Victor Perez 17.8
13. Vincent Norrman 17.8
14. Keith Mitchell 16.6
15. Andrew Putnam 16.5
16. Matti Schmid 15.9
17. Ryan Moore 15.8

Greens In Regulation Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 58
2. Keith Mitchell 34.6
3. Keegan Bradley 33.2
4. Tony Finau 33
5. Kevin Yu 32
6. Aaron Rai 31.3
7. Victor Perez 30.2
8. Doug Ghim 27.1
9. Patrick Rodgers 25.5
10. Taylor Moore 24.7
11. Lucas Glover 23.5
12. Greyson Sigg 23.3
13. Justin Lower 22.4
14. Joel Dahmen 21.6
15. Sepp Straka 21.2
16. Andrew Novak 20.6
17. Harris English 20

Colonial is the fifth-toughest course on tour to gain strokes off the tee. It also has the fourth-narrowest fairways on tour, so you cannot necessarily beat the course with pure power. 

Fairways Gained (Last 24 rounds)

1. Collin Morikawa 40.6
2. Aaron Rai 39.9
3. Ryan Moore 38.8
4. Daniel Berger 37.2
5. Nate Lashley 36.9
6. Carson Young 34.3
7. Ben Kohles 33.3
8. Mark Hubbard 31
9. Scottie Scheffler 29.8
10. Brendon Todd 29.5
11. Lucas Glover 28.7
12. Tyler Duncan 27.9
13. Si Woo Kim 27.2
14. Sepp Straka 27
15. Lee Hodges 26.8
16. Doug Ghim 25.3

Good Drives Gained (Last 24 rounds)

1. Collin Morikawa 31.3
2. Nate Lashley 29.4
3. Ryan Moore 26.9
4. Aaron Rai 26.7
5. Joel Dahmen 24.5
6. Scottie Scheffler 23.3
7. Lucas Glover 23
8. Sepp Straka 22.8
9. Austin Eckroat 21.7
10. Daniel Berger 20.9
11. Ben Kohles 20.7
12. Ben Martin 19.6
13. Andrew Putnam 19.3
14. Billy Horschel 16.4
15. Tony Finau 16.2
16. Brian Harman 15.5
17. Ryo Hisatsune 15.4

The majority of the approach shots at Colonial will be wedges or short irons from 100-175 yards out.

Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards (Last 24 rounds)

1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 9.9
2. Tom Hoge 7.3
3. Scottie Scheffler 7.05
4. Grayson Murray 6.93
5. Max Homa 6.38
6. C.T. Pan 5.95
7. Sam Ryder 5.17
8. Joel Dahmen 4.91
9. Ryan Moore 4.34
10. Ryo Hisatsune 4.17
11. Ryan Fox 4.14
12. Kevin Kisner 4.04
13. Lucas Glover 3.85
14. Carson Young 3.62
15. Chad Ramey 3.55
16. Charley Hoffman 3.38

Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 24 rounds)

1. Tom Hoge 11.42
2. Pierceson Coody 11.17
3. Chan Kim 9.25
4. Eric Cole 8.7
5. Lucas Glover 8.21
6. J.T. Poston 8.11
7. Ryan Moore 7.33
8. Garrick Higgo 7.22
9. Troy Merritt 6.76
10. Scottie Scheffler 6.44
11. Max Greyserman 6.38
12. Chris Kirk 6.21
13. Chandler Phillips 5.52
14. Davis Riley 5.46
15. Justin Lower 5.27
16. Austin Smotherman 5.23
17. Lee Hodges 5.15

Proximity Gained 150-175 Yards (Last 24 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 16.33
2. Daniel Berger 13.59
3. Keith Mitchell 13.17
4. Adam Schenk 12.87
5. Sepp Straka 12.12
6. Keegan Bradley 11.37
7. David Skinns 10.29
8. Justin Lower 9.69
9. Tom Whitney 9.17
10. Rickie Fowler 8.89
11. Sam Ryder 8.57
12. Dylan Wu 8.21
13. Chandler Phillips 8.18
14. Brian Harman 8.18
15. C.T. Pan 8.17
16. Lucas Glover 7.8
17. Tom Hoge 7.03

Twelve of the 18 holes at Colonial are par-4s.

Strokes Gained Par-4s (Last 24 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 43.8
2. Lucas Glover 28.5
3. Sepp Straka 20.7
4. Justin Lower 20.6
5. Joseph Bramlett 20.5
6. Webb Simpson 20.1
7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 19.5
8. Andrew Putnam 19.3
9. Collin Morikawa 19
10. Martin Laird 18.7
11. Aaron Rai 18.5
12. Zach Johnson 18.2
13. Mark Hubbard 16.9
14. Ben Griffin 16.5
15. Erik Barnes 16.4
16. C.T. Pan 16.4
17. Chris Kirk 16.1
18. Brian Harman 15.5
19. Kevin Tway 15.3

Eighteen of the last 20 winners at Colonial have ranked 17th or better on the PGA Tour in putting average in the year of their victory. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Bentgrass Greens (Last 24 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 25.8
2. J.T. Poston 22.6
3. Maverick McNealy 20
4. Harris English 19.3
5. Dylan Wu 19.1
6. Justin Rose 18.7
7. Beau Hossler 17.2
8. Max Homa 16.9
9. Keegan Bradley 16.7
10. Harry Hall 14.7
11. Martin Laird 13.1
12. David Skinns 12.9
13. Matt Kuchar 12.2
14. Brendon Todd 12.2
15. Victor Perez 11.7
16. Peter Malnati 11.6
17. Eric Cole 11.5
18. Adam Schenk 11.3
19. Rickie Fowler 11.2
20. Brian Harman 10.1
21. SH Kim 10

Strokes Gained: Putting – Bentgrass Greens (Last 36 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 38.1
2. Keegan Bradley 34
3. J.T. Poston 32.6
4. Justin Rose 28.4
5. Maverick McNealy 25.2
6. Harris English 24.6
7. Justin Suh 24
8. Eric Cole 22.9
9. Max Homa 20.9
10. Harry Hall 20.6
11. Brendon Todd 20.5
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20.5
13. Beau Hossler 18.6
14. Justin Lower 18.5
15. Sungjae Im 17
16. Nate Lashley 15.2
17. Dylan Wu 15.1

Players will miss some fairways and greens here and bogeys will lurk even on these smooth Bentgrass greens.

Bogeys Avoided (Last 24 rounds)

1. Scottie Scheffler 29.9
2. Denny McCarthy 22.7
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 17.3
4. Aaron Rai 15.8
5. Greyson Sigg 14.6
6. Kevin Tway 14.2
7. Martin Laird 14
8. Billy Horschel 13.1
9. Sepp Straka 13
10. Keith Mitchell 12.2
11. Andrew Putnam 11.4
12. Andrew Novak 11.3
13. Collin Morikawa 10.8
14. Akshay Bhatia 10.4
15. Brian Harman 9.9
16. Davis Thompson 9.7
17. Taylor Moore 9.6
18. Thomas Detry 9

Scrambling has historically been on the easier side at Colonial, but the greens have been lowered, so the course could play differently in that regard.

Scrambling Gained (Last 24 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 21.9
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 18.9
3. Justin Rose 9.2
4. KH Lee 8.7
5. Andrew Putnam 8.5
6. Chris Gotterup 8.5
7. Rickie Fowler 8.5
8. Akshay Bhatia 8.3
9. Ben Griffin 8.3
10. C.T. Pan 8.2
11. Scottie Scheffler 8.1
12. Maverick McNealy 7.1
13. Greyson Sigg 7
14. Joseph Bramlett 6.4
15. Aaron Rai 6.4
16. Andrew Novak 6.2
17. Beau Hossler 5.8
18. Thomas Detry 5.6
19. Dylan Wu 5.5
20. Tyson Alexander 5.2
21. Nate Lashley 5.2
22. Collin Morikawa 5
23. Carl Yuan 5

Selections

Tony Finau (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Finau never made a move on the weekend at the PGA Championship, settling for a T-18 finish. However, he did the lead the field at Valhalla for Strokes Gained: Approach and was sixth for Greens In Regulation. 

He also has had some previous success at Colonial with a runner-up in 2019 and a fourth in 2022. 

It has been a little over a year since Finau last won at the Mexico Open, but this looks like a good spot to get on track as there is good history for him in Texas, not only at Colonial but also with a 2022 victory and a runner-up earlier this season at the Houston Open. 

Brian Harman (40-1, SuperBook Sports)

Harman has eight top-30 appearances in 11 appearances at Colonial, including three top-10 finishes. 

He was in the top 10 last week at the PGA Championship for Strokes Gained: Approach, which is a sign of good ball-striking form.

On a shorter and positional course like Colonial, Harman’s iron play and driving accuracy off the tee should put him in contention. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (50-1, BetMGM)

Bez has finished 15th and 21st at Colonial the last two years. 

While he missed the cut last week at the PGA by one stroke, he had also finished top 30 or better in six consecutive starts leading into last week.

The South African is an excellent putter and scrambler, and his deficit off the tee is mitigated this week on a shorter course.

Keegan Bradley (55-1, Circa Sports)

Bradley makes his first appearance in four years at Colonial (T-32 in 2020). 

He ranked fifth last week at the PGA for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking behind only Schauffele, DeChambeau, Hovland (the top 3 finishers at the PGA) and World No. 1 Scheffler. Furthermore, he ranked first in last week’s field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and second for Driving Accuracy. 

Bradley has not putted as well as last year, but he hits greens regularly (third over the last 36 rounds) and should give himself some chances. 

Justin Rose (60-1, Bet Rivers)

Rose won at Colonial in 2018. Since then, he has finished top 20 or better in three of his last five appearances here, including a third in 2020. 

Rose’s T-6 last week at the PGA, where he ranked third for Strokes Gained: Putting, got him back into the OWGR Top 60 and earned him a return appearance to the U.S. Open as his exemption from winning at Merion (in 2013) expired last year. 

Having secured his spot in the next major, Rose can focus on the task at hand at one of his favorite courses. 

Lucas Glover (66-1, BetMGM)

Glover’s best finish at Colonial was eighth in 2022. 

He ranks sixth for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green over his last 24 rounds. 

Glover also ranks top 10 in the two major proximity buckets (125-150 and 150-175 yards) plus sixth in Driving Accuracy. 

Aaron Rai (70-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Rai finished T-12 at Colonial last year. 

A course with narrow fairways should be right up Rai’s alley and he was second for Driving Accuracy last week at the PGA hitting 46 of 56 fairways (82.1%) and was fifth for Scrambling (21/28 – 75%).

The Englishman has played his best golf for 2024 in the Lone Star State with a T-4 in Dallas at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and a T-7 at the Houston Open. 

Placement markets, matchups, and other plays will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks