John Deere Classic Best Bets and Golf Odds

John Deere Classic:

Akshay Bhatia had zero three-putts and just one bogey through 71 holes of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Then the final hole came and he missed a four-footer for par to miss out on a playoff by one stroke. 

Australian Cam Davis, a pre-tournament choice of 66-1, posted 18-under par and held on for his second PGA Tour victory, both in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. That 18-under-par winning score matched the number Davis won with in 2021 because of unexpected wind blowing directly at the players and making scoring more difficult at an event that averages a winning score south of 23 under par.

Davis now moves into the OWGR Top 40 and earns a two-year PGA Tour exemption, plus spots in all of the 2025 major championships and puts himself into further consideration to make the International squad in the President’s Cup this fall. 

Bhatia’s misfortune on 18 dropped him into a four-way tie for second with Davis Thompson, Min Woo Lee and Aaron Rai. 

This week, the PGA Tour continues in the Midwest, more specifically, the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic, a PGA Tour staple since 1972. OWGR No. 8 Patrick Cantlay was scheduled to be the field’s headliner at 8-1 or 9-1, but he withdrew Monday morning as did Davis. 

Two-time John Deere Classic winner Jordan Spieth (2013, 2015) now takes the favorite’s role at 16-1 in his first appearance at the John Deere since his 2015 victory. Spieth also won the John Deere in 2013 for his first PGA Tour victory. 

Defending John Deere champion Sepp Straka (18-1) and Sungjae Im (18-1), who was third two weeks ago at the Travelers, follow as co-second choices. 

Rai (20-1) and Thompson (28-1) were both part of the four-way tie for second in Detroit. 

A trio of players reside at 25-1 — Maverick McNealy, Keith Mitchell and Denny McCarthy, who has finished sixth here each of the last two years. 

J.T. Poston cashed here for us two years ago at around 50-1 and the 2022 John Deere champion is 30-1 this week along with Jason Day, who returns to the Quad Cities for the first time since 2011.

Nick Dunlap and Sam Stevens (both 35-1) were both in the top 10 last week in Detroit. 

The Field

The John Deere Classic will have 156 players this week competing for an $8 million purse. With Cantlay’s Monday morning withdrawal, defending John Deere champion Sepp Straka (OWGR No. 24) is the highest-ranked player in the field. Just seven of the OWGR Top 50 are in the Quad Cities this week. 

Here is the updated field for this week’s John Deere Classic.

DraftKings odds here.

The Course

TPC Deere Run opened in 2000 on land donated by the descendants of John Deere’s family. Located in Silvis, Ill., within the Quad Cities (Davenport and Bettendorf, Iowa; Rock Island and Moline, Ill.) region, TPC Deere Run was designed by five-time PGA Tour winner D.A. Weibring, who won the John Deere Classic three times.

The layout is a tree-lined parklands that plays as a par-71 of 7,289 yards.

The course presents some elevation changes, has 76 bunkers and three water danger holes. There are some tight doglegs and sloping fairways and players will, more often than not, have to use every club in the bag, but TPC Deere Run typically plays as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour schedule.

The Bentgrass fairways are gettable (36.5-yard average width), but the main defense here is four inches of Kentucky Bluegrass/Fescue rough.

Players will be hitting into Bentgrass greens (5,500 square feet average) that will roll at an average of 12 feet on the stimpmeter.

Further course facts, courtesy of the GCSAA (Golf Course Superintendents Association of America), can be found here. 

Here is the official scorecard for the 2024 John Deere Classic courtesy of PGATOUR.com:

The TPC (Tournament Players Club) Network is a chain of public and private golf courses owned and operated by the PGA Tour. They provide a full flyover of TPC Deere Run. 

John Deere Classic Recent History 

2023: Sepp Straka (-21/263); 60-1

2022: J.T. Poston (-21/263); 50-1

2021: Lucas Glover (-19/265); 55-1

2020: Tournament canceled due to COVID-19

2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21/263), 90-1

2018: Michael Kim (-27/257), 300-1*

2017: Bryson DeChambeau (-18/266), 50-1

2016: Ryan Moore (-22/262), 25-1

2015: Jordan Spieth (-20/264), 4-1**

2014: Brian Harman (-22/262), 125-1

2013: Jordan Spieth (-19/265), 40-1***

2012: Zach Johnson (-20/264), 12-1 ****

2011: Steve Stricker (-22/262), 7-1

2010: Steve Stricker (-26/258), 16-1

Tournament scoring record – *

Playoff win over Tom Gillis – **

Playoff win over David Hearn & Zach Johnson – ***

Playoff win over Troy Matteson – ****

John Deere Classic Trends & Angles

• 5 of the last 10 champs were first-time PGA Tour winners.
• 13 of the last 14 champs played at least one previous John Deere Classic.
• 8 of the last 14 champs finished in the top 20 or better in a previous John Deere Classic.
• 12 of the last 14 champs had at least one top-5 finish earlier in the season.

Statistical Analysis

In 10 of the last 13 John Deere Classics, the winning score has been 20 under par or better. This tournament is typically a birdie-fest and there is no reason to think this year’s edition will be different.

Birdie Or Better Percentage

1. Michael Kim 24.79%
2. Keith Mitchell 24.55
3. Nick Dunlap 24.42
4. Maverick McNealy 24.14
5. Patton Kizzire 23.97
6. Jacob Bridgeman 23.55
7. Davis Thompson 23.48
8. Chan Kim 23.40
9. Davis Riley 23.29
10. Jimmy Stanger 23.25
11. Jason Day 23.20
12. Jordan Spieth 23.15
13. J.T. Poston  23.02
14. Sam Stevens 22.96
15. Alejandro Tosti 22.95

The par-3s have historically been the hardest to score on at TPC Deere Run, so we can narrow the Birdie or Better focus to par-4s and par-5s. 

Par-4 Birdie Or Better Percentage

1. Patton Kizzire 20.97%
2. Michael Kim 20.92
3. Ryo Hisatsune 20.14
4. Jordan Spieth 20.00
5. Jason Day 19.97
6. Maverick McNealy 19.61
7. Davis Riley 19.57
8. Alejandro Tosti 19.55
9. Nick Dunlap 19.40
10. Zach Johnson 19.40
11. Chandler Phillips 19.37
12. Peter Malnati 19.16
13. Keith Mitchell 19.14
14. Martin Laird 18.96
15. Vince Whaley 18.75

Par-5 Birdie Or Better Percentage

1. Sam Stevens 56.44%
2. Nick Dunlap 56.25
3. S.H. Kim 55.00
4. Keith Mitchell 55.00
5. Beau Hossler 54.84
6. Mark Hubbard 54.17
7. Sungjae Im 54.08
8. Kevin Dougherty 53.79
9. Max Greyserman 53.70
10. Jimmy Stanger 53.68
11. Chan Kim 53.30
12. Patrick Fishburn 53.17
13. Maverick McNealy 53.13
14. Davis Thompson 52.97
15. Jake Knapp 52.88

With fairly wide fairways, players can take dead aim on their second shots assuming they are not in the thick rough. Greens are heavily watered in the heat of the summer to prevent them from drying out, so players will see softer greens in which to target and get as close as possible. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round

1. Aaron Rai 0.701
2. Keith Mitchell 0.643
3. Patton Kizzire 0.638
4. Lucas Glover 0.505
5. Greyson Sigg 0.503
6. Kevin Yu 0.497
7. Doug Ghim 0.485
8. Joel Dahmen 0.454
9. Daniel Berger 0.451
10. David Skinns 0.421
11. Ryan Moore 0.420
12. Davis Thompson 0.414
13. Chandler Phillips 0.394
14. Dylan Wu 0.387
15. Andrew Novak 0.380

A plurality (around 45%) of the approach shots will be short wedges from 150 yards or less. 

Average Proximity Inside 100 Yards 

1. Vince Whaley 11′ 8″ (feet, inches)
2. Thorbjørn Olesen 12′ 11″
3. Hayden Springer 13′ 0″
4. Nick Dunlap 13′ 2″
5. Doug Ghim 14′ 1″
6. Seamus Power 14′ 2″
7. Brendon Todd 14′ 5″
8. Harry Hall 14′ 6″
9. Rico Hoey 14′ 7″
10. Davis Thompson 14′ 9″
11. Erik Barnes 14′ 10″
12. Zac Blair 14′ 10″
13. Maverick McNealy 14′ 10″
14. Troy Merritt 14′ 10″
15. Joel Dahmen 15′ 0″

Average Proximity 100-125 Yards

1. Ryan McCormick 15′ 9″
2. Jake Knapp 16′ 3″
3. Lucas Glover 16′ 4″
4. Roger Sloan 16′ 7″
5. Patton Kizzire 17′ 1″
6. Patrick Fishburn 17′ 3″
7. Ben Griffin 17′ 6″
8. Pierceson Coody 17′ 10″
9. Jacob Bridgeman 17′ 11″
10. Rafael Campos 17′ 11″
11. Kevin Streelman 17′ 11″
12. Eric Cole 18′ 1″
13. J.T. Poston 18′ 4″
14. Joel Dahmen 18′ 5″
15. Sam Ryder 18′ 6″

Average Proximity 125-150 Yards

1. Chandler Phillips 19′ 1″
2. Daniel Berger 20′ 6″
3. Justin Lower 20′ 11″
4. Lucas Glover 21′ 3″
5. Seamus Power 21′ 3″
6. K.H. Lee 21′ 4″
7. Keith Mitchell 21′ 6″
8. Andrew Novak 21′ 6″
9. Robby Shelton 21′ 6″ 
10. Joel Dahmen 21′ 7″
11. Davis Riley 21′ 10″
12. Ben Griffin 21′ 11″
13. Matt NeSmith 22′ 0″
14. Ryan Moore 22′ 3″
15. Troy Merritt 22′ 4″
16. Andrew Putnam 22′ 4″

Many of the greens at TPC Deere Run are elevated and have slopes that run off into shortgrass collection areas, plus there are deep greenside bunkers. Although the greens are fairly easy to hit, some players will miss and have to save par. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round

1. Roger Sloan 0.599
2. Jorge Campillo 0.462
3. Robby Shelton 0.444
4. Martin Laird 0.401
5. Maverick McNealy 0.379
6. Davis Thompson 0.372
7. C.T. Pan 0.367
8. Beau Hossler 0.325
9. Brendon Todd 0.307
10. Chez Reavie 0.299
11. Denny McCarthy 0.295
12. Mac Meissner 0.284
13. Nate Lashley 0.283
14. Harry Hall 0.270
15. Andrew Novak 0.252

This tournament often turns into a putting contest, and while the greens are fairly easy to putt, it is still prudent to examine who the better putters are, more specifically on Bentgrass greens. 

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round — Bentgrass Greens (Last 24 rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 1.44
2. Dylan Wu 1.05
3. J.T. Poston 0.95
4. Kevin Dougherty 0.84 (12 measured rounds)
5. Maverick McNealy 0.79
6. Nick Dunlap 0.73 (14 measured rounds)
7. Beau Hossler 0.54
8. Roger Sloan 0.54
9. Harry Hall 0.53
10. Richy Werenski 0.52
11. Andrew Landry 0.51
12. Justin Suh 0.50
13. David Skinns 0.49
14. Thorbjørn Olesen 0.49
15. Vince Whaley 0.45

While the fairways are easy to hit, there will be some misses. Good Drive Percentage indicates the number of fairways hit, plus the number of greens or fringe in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot.

Good Drive Percentage

1. Aaron Rai 89.28%
2. Sepp Straka 86.83
3. Ryan Moore 86.75
4. Jhonattan Vegas 86.70
5. Daniel Berger 86.64
6. Greyson Sigg 86.36
7. Nate Lashley 85.92
8. Troy Merritt 85.89
9. Patrick Fishburn 85.75
10. Patton Kizzire 85.36
11. Carson Young 85.33
12. Joel Dahmen 85.18
13. Ryo Hisatsune 85.14
14. Doug Ghim 85.03
15. Ben Silverman 84.68
16. Lucas Glover 84.62

Dating to 2010, the average winning score at the John Deere is 21.4 strokes under par. TPC Deere Run is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour.

Strokes Gained: Total — Average Per Round — Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 24 rounds)

1. Ryo Hisatsune 1.46
2. Patrick Rodgers 1.29
3. Chan Kim 1.28
4. Chesson Hadley 1.14
5. J.T. Poston 1.06
6. Sungjae Im 1.04
7. Beau Hossler 0.98
8. Davis Thompson 0.95
9. Hayden Springer 0.94 (17 measured rounds)
10. Aaron Rai 0.87
11. Justin Lower 0.86
12. Brice Garnett 0.84
13. Keith Mitchell 0.83
14. Ben Kohles 0.76
15. Doug Ghim 0.75
16. Austin Cook 0.75

Statistics courtesy of PGATOUR.com

Selections

Denny McCarthy, 22-1

McCarthy has finished sixth here each of the last two years. 

He still seeks that elusive first PGA Tour victory having lost in a playoff last year at the Memorial to Viktor Hovland and in April at the Valero Texas Open to Akshay Bhatia.

There might not be a better putter on the PGA Tour as you can see in the putting rankings, especially on Bentgrass. 

In his last start, McCarthy gained a little less than three strokes on approach at the Travelers. If he can come close to that, plus maintain his usual standard with the flat stick, he will contend here again. 

Davis Thompson, 25-1

Thompson has two runner-up finishes in his last six starts — Myrtle Beach and last week in Detroit.

In between those starts, he finished top 10 in the U.S. Open, plus 17th at Colonial and 27th at Memorial. 

The former No. 1 world amateur is starting to show up on leaderboards more consistently, and this looks like a good spot to earn his first PGA Tour victory. 

Maverick McNealy, 28-1

McNealy disappointed last week with a T-44 in Detroit, but that could be attributed to shaking off rust after three weeks off. 

He ranks fourth in this field for Birdie Or Better, fifth for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and fifth for Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass). 

He was eighth at the John Deere two years ago. 

Nick Dunlap, 40-1

At just 20 years old, Dunlap is already a PGA Tour winner having won The American Express earlier this year while still an amateur and a collegiate player at Alabama.

Since then, he has turned professional and there have been some growing pains, but he has made 10 of 15 cuts, including three top-12 finishes in Houston, at the Memorial and a T-10 last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic while leading the field for Greens In Regulation and ranking second for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. 

Seamus Power, 50-1

Power started 2024 slowly, largely because of a hip injury, but has started to make better showings, finishing 12th in the RBC Heritage, 16th in the Wells Fargo Championship and last time out was 20th in the Travelers Championship. 

The Irishman was 13th here last year and eighth in 2021. 

He thrives in birdie-fests as evidenced by his wins at the Barbasol and Bermuda Championships. 

Patton Kizzire, 100-1

Kizzire comes into the John Deere with four top-25 finishes in his last five starts. 

He ranks second in this field for Greens In Regulation, third for Strokes Gained: Approach, fifth for Birdie Or Better and 10th for Good Drive Percentage.

Chandler Phillips, 100-1

After a 12th at Colonial and a 10th at the RBC Canadian Open (both on Bentgrass where he putts best), Phillips made the cut last weekend at Detroit but never got it going on the weekend and finished near the bottom of the board. 

He is No. 1 in this field for Proximity 125-150 yards and is top 13 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach. 

Placement markets, matchups, and any other futures will be posted Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks