Masters Best Bets
A year ago at the Masters, Jon Rahm stepped up to defend the PGA Tour’s honor against the invading contingent of LIV golfers. Rahm won his first green jacket, but in a bid to repeat, he’s got to overcome a trend that has held up for more than two decades, and that’s one reason he’s not the best bet to win the 2024 Masters.
No player has successfully defended his Masters title since Tiger Woods in 2002. Simply put, it’s a tough tournament to win once — Rory McIlroy is proof of that — and beating an elite field to go back-to-back is too much to ask.
Scottie Scheffler is the +450 favorite, according to DraftKings sportsbook, with Rahm and McIlroy each offered at 11-1 odds. Scheffler won the Masters in 2022 and tied for 10th last year, finishing eight strokes behind Rahm.
The feud between PGA and LIV players was a major storyline a year ago when three players from the Saudi-funded tour — Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Patrick Reed — finished in the top five. Rahm was a PGA star then and is a so-called bad guy after crossing the line, but the tension between rival tour players has dissipated.
The wagering handle on the Masters dwarfs the other three majors to follow this summer, making this the Super Bowl of golf betting with an extensive prop menu. As a veteran golf bettor of more than 20 years, this is how I’m playing the tournament (with odds listed from the DraftKings, Circa and Westgate books):
Brooks Koepka to win (22-1) and finish Top 10 (+190)
A five-time major champion, Koepka was close to his first Masters title last year as the 54-hole leader. LIV events are 54 holes, and Koepka collapsed en route to 72. The four-stroke cushion he took into Sunday quickly disappeared as he shot a 3-over 75. A nagging knee injury is a potential problem, but Koepka is a big-game player with a positive track record at Augusta, and he’s got a legit shot at redemption.
Tony Finau to win (55-1) and finish Top 20 (+140)
I typically bet a half-unit to win on the futures board and a full unit on the placement market, which is how I’m playing it with Koepka and Finau. In six Masters starts, Finau has made six cuts and finished in the Top 10 three times (2018, 2019 and 2021). He tied for second in Houston two weeks ago, so his current form is encouraging.
Jordan Spieth to finish Top 20 (-120)
Spieth can get erratic off the tee, yet he can survive that issue at Augusta with its wide fairways. The course fits his game because he’s sharp with short irons and crafty around the greens, which is a must. While betting on Spieth is often a maddening rollercoaster ride, there’s a comforting feeling backing him at Augusta, where he won in 2015 and owns six top-four finishes in 10 starts, including last year. I bet Spieth to win at 25-1 two months ago, but I don’t want to recommend that now because he’s got a wrist injury that is concerning and leading to slightly lower expectations.
Other Top 20 plays: Matt Fitzpatrick (+140), Cameron Young (+150).
Masters Long Shots
As a former host of VSiN’s Long Shots podcast, I usually try to hit a few bombs in most tournaments, and the plays on Cameron Smith and Sahith Theegala (50-1 each) are smaller bets of a quarter-unit each. I’ll also play Smith and Theegala to finish Top 20 (+160).
Tournament matchups:
Scheffler (-170) over McIlroy
Rahm (-105) over McIlroy
Finau (-120) over Justin Thomas
Theegala (-105) over Collin Morikawa
First-round leader:
Xander Schauffele (18-1) and Will Zalatoris (40-1) for a quarter-unit each.
Will Tiger Woods make the cut? (No -130)
The 48-year-old has played only 24 holes on the PGA Tour this season — none since mid-February — and is hurting with ankle and lower-back injuries. Woods has been known to limp, wince and sometimes quit if he’s not playing well. He either withdrew or missed the cut in four of his past six starts. It’s true he knows the Augusta course like his backyard, and he’s aiming for a Masters record by making the cut for the 24th consecutive time, but sharp money is showing on the “No” side of this prop, and I’ll follow that with a small wager.
