The Open Championship Best Bets:
One year ago, Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre looked like he was going to win his home Open, but was defeated on the final hole by Rory McIlroy. A year later, he is now a two-time winner (he also won RBC Canadian Open earlier this season) on the PGA TOUR, having won the Genesis Scottish Open this past weekend at a price of 50/1.
MacIntyre headed to the Par 5 16th hole trailing Adam Scott by two strokes, and then lost his drive to the right into the thick rough. Then, MacIntyre’s metal spikes saved him as he stepped on a sprinkler head in the rough. That earned him a free drop, where he took full advantage, hitting a 248-yard second shot to six feet and eventually making eagle to tie the lead.
Last year, MacIntyre thought he made the winning birdie at 18, but this year, there was no doubt as he hit a 22-footer to win at Renaissance Golf Club by one stroke over Scott.
Frenchman Romain Langasque finished third. A six-way tie for fourth included McIlroy, Sahith Theegala, Aaron Rai, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im, and Ludvig Åberg, who was the overnight leader by two strokes but had a terrible Sunday round and fell out of contention late.
This week, the year’s final major returns to the Old Course at Royal Troon Golf Club for the 10th time in history for the 152nd Open Championship.
We have seen elite players win the Claret Jug at Royal Troon including Arnold Palmer (1962), Tom Watson (1982), and Henrik Stenson (2016), and we have also seen winners here like Mark Calcavecchia (1989), Justin Leonard (1995), and Todd Hamilton (2004). The Open is typically the most wide-open and unpredictable major championship because of the weather and links golf in general.
Despite the wide-open nature of this championship, Scottie Scheffler, four weeks removed from winning his sixth event of 2024 at the Travelers Championship, is a strong 5/1 favorite. Scheffler is the first player with six PGA TOUR wins before July since “The King” Arnold Palmer in 1962, who coincidentally enough won The Open at Royal Troon that same year.
McIlroy (8/1) won his lone Open ten years ago at Royal Liverpool, and it is now approaching a decade since his last major championship victory at the 2014 PGA. He looked like he would break that major drought last month at the U.S. Open before a late collapse allowed Bryson DeChambeau (14/1) to walk through the door and claim his second U.S. Open title.
Xander Schauffele (12/1) finally broke his major championship maiden, winning the PGA at Valhalla this past May.
Åberg (14/1) seemed to have the Scottish Open under control going into last Sunday’s final round but ended up posting the worst Strokes Gained numbers (-4.55 SG: Total, -3.90 SG: Tee-To-Green) in any round of his young career.
Morikawa (16/1) won The Open in 2021 and was in contention on Sunday, but like in the PGA, never could get anything going nor maintain any momentum.
A trio of Europeans – Jon Rahm. Tyrrell Hatton, and Tommy Fleetwood – reside at 25/1.
Brian Harman (66/1) was a long shot last year at Royal Liverpool but ran away to a six-stroke victory. Another 2023 long shot major champion was Wyndham Clark (2023 U.S. Open) who also is priced at 66/1.
Past winners of the Claret Jug in this field include McIlroy, Morikawa, Harman, Cameron Smith (40/1), Shane Lowry (40/1), Francesco Molinari (500/1), Jordan Spieth (80/1), Henrik Stenson (400/1), Zach Johnson (1000/1), Phil Mickelson (350/1), Ernie Els (1500/1), Darren Clarke (5000/1), Louis Oosthuizen (65/1), Stewart Cink (750/1), Padraig Harrington (350/1), Todd Hamilton (5000/1), Justin Leonard (5000/1), John Daly (5000/1), and Tiger Woods (200/1).
The Field
158 players are currently scheduled to be part of the field for this week’s 152nd Open Championship.
Field | The 152nd Open | Royal Troon (theopen.com)
49 of the Top 50 players in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) will be playing except for Cam Davis (who made the Top 50 after the qualification deadline).
Current DraftKings odds listed here: Golf Betting Odds & Lines: The Open Championship | DraftKings Sportsbook
The Course
Royal Troon Golf Club is located in Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland along the western coast and around 30 miles southwest of Glasgow, Scotland’s largest city. It was founded in 1878, and the Old Course was designed in 1888 by George Strath, a caddie of four-time Open champion Old Tom Morris and 1883 Open champion Willie Fernie. Five-time Champion Golfer of the Year (the title given to the winner of The Open) James Braid re-designed Royal Troon in 1923. The team of Martin Ebert and Tom Mackenzie have been the go-to duo for Open rotation courses in recent years to do renovations and restorations as they have worked on Royal Lytham & St. Annes, Royal Portrush, Turnberry, Royal St. George’s, Carnoustie, and Royal Liverpool. They also have worked here on Royal Troon both in 2016 and last year in preparation for this Open.
Royal Troon will play as Par 71 of 7,385 yards, which is almost 200 yards longer than the 2016 Open held here.
Some players will try to play bomb and gouge off the tee, but that can be dangerous with some fescue rough that can be deep and will be even thicker due to the warmer temperatures and rainfall over the last couple of months preceding this year’s Open. However, you cannot just rely on low stingers that could roll through the fairways.
As with most pure links courses, Royal Troon is no different in terms of being heavily potbunkered, especially in the fairways.
Compared to other courses in the Open rotation, the fairways are not overly wide and generous. If you recall, back in 2016, Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson essentially lapped the field here largely because they clubbed down and rarely hit drivers off the tee.
The Bentgrass/Poa mixed greens are on the small side (4,500 sq ft average) and tend to have smaller landing areas in the front and larger towards the back. These greens will run painfully slow and as low as 9.5 on the stimpmeter (especially when the wind is blowing) and 10.5 will be as fast as they run.
Courtesy of The Open’s official website, here is this year’s scorecard at Royal Troon as compared to the 2016 Open Championship:
Iona Stephen, a Scotland native who is a presenter and host on Sky Sports golf coverage, narrates a hole-by-hole flyover of Royal Troon Golf Club for Golf Digest here: Every Hole at Royal Troon Golf Club | Golf Digest (youtube.com)
As you can see on the scorecard and the video, the most unique and signature hole here at Royal Troon is the Par 3 8th, which measures at only 123 yards. It is known as the “Postage Stamp.” The green only measures 2,635 sq ft. It played at just 99 yards in the third round of the 2016 Open.
Royal Troon not only has the shortest hole in the Open rotation, but also the longest with the Par 5 6th named “Turnberry” at now 623 yards.
The 498-yard, Par 4 11th, known as “The Railway”, was once called by Arnold Palmer “the most dangerous hole I have ever seen” back in 1962. The hole features the Glasgow Central-to-Ayr railway line that runs hard up the right side. In 1962, Jack Nicklaus, who was then a TOUR rookie, made a quintuple bogey 10 on this hole for what was then a Par 5.
For the most part, the first six holes are the easiest group, the middle six (7-12) are unique and a bit more challenging, yet not overwhelming, and the final six holes are the most difficult, especially with windy conditions that go right into the players’ faces.
Not all links courses in the Open rotation are created the same. Royal Troon is probably most comparable to Royal Liverpool, Royal St. George’s, Royal Portrush, Carnoustie, and Muirfield.
Open Championship Recent History
Longshot Brian Harman, who had only two PGA TOUR victories to his credit and had not won anywhere since 2017, took control of The Open last year in the second round and never looked back. He built a five-shot lead heading into the weekend. In the third round, he bogeyed two of his first four holes and then made four birdies for the rest of his round to lead by five heading into Sunday, where he eventually won by six strokes.
2023: Brian Harman (-13/271), Royal Liverpool; 150/1
2022: Cameron Smith (-20/268), St. Andrews; 20/1
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15/265), Royal St. George’s; 40/1
2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry (-15/269), Royal Portrush; 70/1
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8/276), Carnoustie; 33/1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12/268), Royal Birkdale; 16/1
2016: Henrik Stenson (-20/264), Royal Troon; 33/1
2015: Zach Johnson (-15/273), St. Andrews; 110/1*
2014: Rory McIlroy (-17/271), Royal Liverpool; 18/1
2013: Phil Mickelson (-3/281), Muirfield; 20/1
2012: Ernie Els (-7/273), Royal Lytham & St. Annes; 45/1
2011: Darren Clarke (-5/275), Royal St. George’s; 200/1
2010: Louis Oosthuizen (-16/272), St. Andrews; 250/1
Playoff win over Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen – *
Open Championship Trends and Angles
- 10 of the last 13 winners had at least one Top 5 finish in at least one of their six events prior to The Open.
- 6 of the last 12 winners had at least one victory in at least one of their six events prior to The Open.
- 16 of the last 23 winners had at least one worldwide victory earlier in the season.
- 11 of the last 13 winners were inside the OWGR Top 40.
- 9 of the last 13 winners had at least one Top 15 in one of their three previous Open starts.
- 8 of the last 13 winners were aged 32 or older.
- 11 of the last 13 winners played the week prior.
- 14 of the last 17 winners had a previous Top 10 or better in a previous Open.
- 9 of the last 11 winners have posted a Top 20 in at least one of their previous two majors leading into The Open.
- 11 of the last 11 Open winners already had a win or a runner-up in a major earlier in their career.
- 13 of the last 14 winners had at least four career worldwide wins.
- 12 of the last 14 winners had played The Open at least four times.
- 14 of the last 14 winners had at least one Top 5 finish worldwide earlier in the season.
- 12 of the last 14 winners had at least four Top 10 finishes earlier in the season.
Statistical Angles
In combing through various stats and metrics, these comprise the skill set most important to hoist the Claret Jug:
Strokes Gained: Approach
As mentioned above, the greens are on the smaller side, so players will have to be pinpointed with their wedges and irons.
Bogey Avoidance
Despite Stenson (-20) and Mickelson (-17) running away from the field here in 2016, the 3rd place finisher was JB Holmes at just -6. Only 17 players were under par after 2016 Open, so this course, while gettable, was not as easy as it looked. Bogeys will lurk, especially on the more difficult final six holes.
Good Drives Gained
Good Drives are when a player either hits the fairway or misses the fairway but is still able to hit the green in regulation. This is not a bomb and gouge type of course and bettors should lean a bit more on Good Drives Gained or Driving Accuracy versus pure Distance.
Scrambling/Sand Saves
It is easy to miss greens that only average around 4,500 sq ft and find the bunkers that protect the narrow fronts on the greens. Deep pot bunkers also protect the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Slow Greens)
The greens here have very few undulations and are slow and get even slower when the coastal winds blow. These may be the slowest greens that players will putt on all year.
Strokes Gained: Total (Links Golf Courses)
In 2021, Collin Morikawa was an outlier winning the Claret Jug in his Open Championship debut. The trends listed above indicate that you need some experience playing links golf, which is why the average age of recent champions has been higher than what you see at the other three major championships.
Selections
Collin Morikawa 16/1
Morikawa has been close all season to picking up his third career major championship. He was 2nd into the final round at Augusta but that resulted in a disappointing 74 to close. He co-led the PGA with eventual winner Xander Schauffele a month later at Valhalla before shooting 71 to finish 4th. At the U.S. Open, he was in the Top 10 with 18 holes to go, but again he was flat on Sunday and eventually finished 14th. The 2021 Open champion ranks 2nd on the PGA TOUR this season for Driving Accuracy, so he should be able to stay out of trouble off the tee.
Jon Rahm 25/1
Perhaps Rahm is having buyer’s remorse in leaving for LIV Golf and thought he might be the impetus towards reunification which has not happened. He has not played poorly this season but has yet to win. Last week, he led the field for hitting Greens In Regulation at Valderrama. Rahm has finished in the Top 3 in two of the last three Open Championships and has previous links victories with two Irish Open wins in 2017 and 2019.
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Fleetwood has six career DP World Tour victories against top competition, but he has yet to win on the PGA TOUR nor win a major. The Open Championship has seemingly represented his best opportunity to win his first major with a runner-up, a 4th, and a 10th all within the last five years. He has always been one of the best links players in the world and should be in contention again.
Viktor Hovland 33/1
Hovland looked like he was back when in contention before eventually finishing 3rd at the PGA. Then, he missed the cut at the U.S. Open and has not done much of note since. However, he has never finished worse than 13th at The Open and is a proven links player.
Tony Finau 50/1
Finau made a putter change a few months back and has posted a form line of 18th, 17th, 8th, 3rd, and 5th in his last five starts. Surprisingly enough, he has the second-highest strokes gained average on links courses over the last ten years.
Sungjae Im 75/1
Im has missed the cut in all three majors this year, but he comes in on his most consistent form of the year with a T-3 at the Travelers, T-12 at the John Deere, and a T-4 last weekend at the Genesis Scottish Open.
Placement markets, matchups, and props will be up on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.
