Procore Championship Best Bets and Golf Odds

Procore Championship:

The PGA Tour gets back to business this week as the FedEx Cup Fall begins in Napa Valley, Calif., with the Procore Championship. 

The field is headlined by the event’s defending champion, Sahith Theegala, and Wyndham Clark, both at 12-1. Theegala and Clark were both automatic point qualifiers for the USA Presidents Cup team that will compete in two weeks in Canada, where Canadian Corey Conners (16-1) will be a part of the International side captained by Mike Weir.

Max Homa (22-1) had a down 2024 season but was selected as a captain’s pick by Jim Furyk. Homa is a two-time winner in Napa having been victorious in back-to-back years (2021, 2022). 

Min Woo Lee (25-1) and Mackenzie Hughes (60-1) will also play for the International team in two weeks. 

Maverick McNealy (22-1) was the runner-up to Homa here in 2021. 

No. 1-ranked amateur Luke Clanton (22-1) has posted three top-10 finishes, including two top-5s, over the summer on the tour while awaiting to start his junior season at Florida State. 

The Event

The Procore Championship began in 2007 as the Fry’s Electronics Open. Construction management software company Procore Technologies takes over as the title sponsor this year. It also marks the beginning of FedExCup Fall. Below is an explanation of how the new fall format works.

Tournaments in the FedExCup Fall offer winners the same benefits as regular-season events — including a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour, 500 FedExCup points and spots in The Players Championship, The Sentry and those major championships that invite PGA Tour winners.

But the FedExCup Fall also is when Top 125 eligibility, which provides exempt status into Full-Field Events and a spot in The Players, is finalized for the following season.

After the conclusion of the FedExCup Playoffs, players ranked 51st and beyond in the FedExCup will continue to compete for points in the fall. They will begin the fall with all points earned in the regular season and the first FedExCup Playoffs event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Additionally, the top 10 players on the FedExCup Points List at the conclusion of the FedExCup Fall who are not yet eligible for the Signature Events will get into the two Signature Events after the season-opening The Sentry. This allows trending players to emerge from the FedExCup Fall and test their skills against the game’s best.

Nos. 51-70 in the FedExCup at the start of the fall have already clinched their Top 125 eligibility for the following year but are competing for spots in the first two Signature Events after The Sentry.

Nos. 71 and beyond can earn one of the 10 spots available in those Signature Events, but they also are competing to finish in the Top 125 of the FedExCup standings at the conclusion of the fall.

At the end of the FedExCup Fall, those who rank from 126-150 on the final FedExCup Fall Points List will have conditional status for the 2025 PGA Tour Season.

All players outside the Top 125 can improve or regain tour status via PGA Tour Q-School presented by Korn Ferry.

Players in the Top 50 of the FedExCup after the Tour Championship are guaranteed Top 125 eligibility and their spots in all Signature Events for the following season, but they can continue to play FedExCup Fall events. 

The Field

144 players will tee it up this week in Napa Valley. Only five (Clark No. 6, Theegala No. 12, Homa No. 24, Conners No. 38 and Min Woo Lee No. 40) of the Top 50 OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings) players are in this field. 

The full field for this week’s Procore Championship is here.

The Course

The Silverado Country Club’s North Course in Napa, Calif., has hosted this event since 2014. The course’s first major redesign occurred in 1966 by Robert Trent Jones Jr. and then again in 2011 by Johnny Miller. It plays a par-72 of 7,123 yards. 

The Bermuda fairways with Poa Annua and Ryegrass are the narrowest (24 yards average width) on the PGA Tour. Miller wanted to reconfigure the bunkering on this course to create a bit of an “Augusta” type feel. A strong, balanced game off the tee (both distance and accuracy) is required here because the 2.5-inch Bluegrass/Ryegrass Rough can be tricky.

Although there is some rolling terrain and a couple of holes with elevation changes, it is predominately a flat course. With only two holes with water hazards in play and only 53 bunkers on the course, there are not a lot of trouble spots. 

Players will be hitting into Bentgrass/Poa Annua (11.5 stimpmeter) greens that are elevated with shaved run-offs and can be bumpy. The greens also average 5,400 square feet. Eight years is not a huge sample size, but West Coast players have fared relatively well on these Bent/Poa greens with Sahith Theegala, Max Homa, Cameron Champ and Brendan Steele, all California guys, winning here recently.

Comparable courses include Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, TPC San Antonio, TPC Deere Run, TPC Twin Cities and TPC Scottsdale.

Here is the Procore Championship official scorecard courtesy of the PGA Tour:

The Silverado Resort’s YouTube page provides a video tour of the Silverado North Course featuring Johnny and son Andy Miller, who did the renovation.

Procore Championship Recent History

2023: Sahith Theegala (-21/267); 16-1

2022: Max Homa (-16/272); 10-1

2021: Max Homa (-19/269); 60-1

2020: Stewart Cink (-21/267); 200-1

2019: Cameron Champ (-17/271); 150-1

2018: Kevin Tway (-14/274); 66-1*

2017: Brendan Steele (-15/273); 33-1

2016: Brendan Steele (-18/270); 50-1

2015: Emiliano Grillo (-15/273); 50-1**

2014: Sang-moon Bae (-15/273); 150-1

Playoff win over Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker – *

Playoff win over Kevin Na – **

Trends and Angles

• Every Fortinet Championship winner at Silverado, except Homa in 2021 (42nd), has ranked seventh or better in Scrambling during their respective winning weeks. (2023: Theegala, 5th; 2022: Homa, 3rd, 2020: Cink, 2nd, 2019: Champ, 1st, 2018: Tway, 1st, 2017: Steele, 7th, 2016: Steele, 5th, 2015: Grillo, 5th, 2014: Bae, 4th).

Statistical Analysis

Due to the lack of trouble off the tee, the best way for players to separate themselves is to gain with the irons.

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Luke Clanton 0.920 (22 rounds)
2. Corey Conners 0.781
3. Keith Mitchell 0.690
4. Doug Ghim 0.672
5. Chez Reavie 0.527
6. Lucas Glover 0.507
7. J.J. Spaun 0.503
8. Jhonattan Vegas 0.496
9. Greyson Sigg 0.469
10. Ryan Moore 0.466
11. Chan Kim 0.451
12. Patton Kizzire 0.450
13. Neal Shipley 0.440 (22 rounds)
14. Joel Dahmen 0.420
15. Mac Meissner 0.366
16. Dylan Wu 0.360
17. Sam Ryder 0.353
18. David Skinns 0.353

Last season, Silverado ranked as the 10th-most difficult course to gain strokes around the green particularly because of the run-offs around the green that make for some tricky chip shots and deep bunkers surrounding the putting surfaces. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. C.T. Pan 0.450
2. Mackenzie Hughes 0.447
3. Maverick McNealy 0.408
4. Aaron Baddeley 0.377
5. Robby Shelton 0.352
6. Beau Hossler 0.303
7. Roger Sloan 0.298
8. Martin Laird 0.290
9. Brendon Todd 0.277
10. Ryan Moore 0.259
11. Max Homa 0.254
12. Chez Reavie 0.250
13. Chan Kim 0.226
14. Andrew Putnam 0.224
15. Matt Kuchar 0.220
16. Neal Shipley 0.220 (22 rounds)
17. Vince Whaley 0.213

Scrambling (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Aaron Baddeley 67.93%
2. Ben Silverman 66.22
3. Maverick McNealy 65.38
4. Chan Kim 65.00
5. Mackenzie Hughes 64.91
6. Roger Sloan 64.34
7. Nate Lashley 63.96
8. Andrew Putnam 63.76
9. Martin Laird 63.38
10. Sam Stevens 63.33
11. Patrick Fishburn 63.11
12. Jacob Bridgeman 62.97
13. Max Homa 62.79
14. Doug Ghim 62.77
15. Ryan Moore 62.46
16. Harris English 62.39

As with most par-72 layouts, there are four par-5s at Silverado, but three of them are on the back nine and will play a major factor in Sunday’s final round.

Strokes Gained Par-5s — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Neal Shipley 0.48 (22 rounds)
2. Rico Hoey 0.47
3. Luke Clanton 0.41 (22 rounds)
4. Sam Stevens 0.38
5. SH Kim 0.38
6. Eric Cole 0.34
7. Hayden Springer 0.32
8. Maverick McNealy 0.30
9. Jhonattan Vegas 0.30
10. Min Woo Lee 0.28
11. Mac Meissner 0.27
12. Kevin Dougherty 0.25
13. Callum Tarren 0.25
14. Paul Barjon 0.24
15. Mackenzie Hughes 0.24

Despite the narrower fairways, most of the holes at Silverado are fairly straightforward, so players can decide to bomb it off the tee. 

Average Driving Distance (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Cameron Champ 320.7
2. Kevin Dougherty 316.8
3. Min Woo Lee 315.0
4. Wyndham Clark 314.5
5. Chris Gotterup 313.8
6. Alejandro Tosti 312.3
7. Jhonattan Vegas 312.1
8. Hayden Springer 311.9
9. Keith Mitchell 310.9
10. Carl Yuan 310.5
11. Gary Woodland 310.2
12. Pierceson Coody 309.9
13. Joseph Bramlett 309.1
14. Rico Hoey 308.8
15. Garrick Higgo 308.5
16. Callum Tarren 308.5

Six of the 10 par-4s measure from 400-450 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 Yards — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

1. Luke Clanton 0.51 (22 rounds)
2. Mac Meissner 0.40
3. C.T. Pan 0.37
4. Taylor Montgomery 0.32
5. Alex Smalley 0.31
6. Adam Svensson 0.31
7. Pierceson Coody 0.30
8. Justin Lower 0.29
9. Roger Sloan 0.29
10. Andrew Putnam 0.29
11. Cody Gribble 0.27
12. Corey Conners 0.24
13. Matt Kuchar 0.24
14. Chez Reavie 0.22
15. Wyndham Clark 0.22
16. Ben Silverman 0.21

Silverado is about slightly above average in terms of scoring on the PGA Tour but is a scoreable track.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Keith Mitchell 25.20%
2. Wyndham Clark 24.96
3. Michael Kim 24.51
4. Chan Kim 24.49
5. Jacob Bridgeman 24.04
6. Hayden Springer 24.00
7. Jhonattan Vegas 24.00
8. Maverick McNealy 23.87
9. Trace Crowe 23.84
10. Sam Ryder 23.82
11. Sahith Theegala 23.73
12. Pierceson Coody 23.50
13. Carson Young 23.48
14. Patton Kizzire 23.46
15. S.H. Kim 23.37
16. Chandler Phillips 23.37
17. Rico Hoey 23.26

A plurality of the approach shots come from anywhere from 75 yards to 150 yards away from the pins. 

Proximity 75-100 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Wyndham Clark 12′ 6″ (feet, inches from hole)
2. Hayden Springer 13′ 11″
3. Doug Ghim 14′ 3″
4. Max Homa 14′ 3″
5. Joel Dahmen 14′ 4″
6. Ben Taylor 14′ 4″
7. Kevin Streelman 14′ 9″
8. Mac Meissner 15′ 0″
9. Roger Sloan 15′ 1″
10. Maverick McNealy 15′ 2″
11. Michael Kim 15′ 3″
12. Brendon Todd 15′ 5″
13. Daniel Berger 15′ 6″
14. Mackenzie Hughes 15′ 8″
15. Chez Reavie 15′ 10″
16. Nick Taylor 15′ 10″

Proximity 100-125 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Ryan McCormick 16′ 0″
2. Lucas Glover 16′ 3″
3. Eric Cole 16′ 8″
4. Roger Sloan 16′ 8″
5. Trace Crowe 16′ 10″
6. Patton Kizzire 17′ 3″
7. Ryan Moore 17′ 3″
8. Kevin Streelman 17′ 4″
9. Charley Hoffman 17′ 7″
10. Corey Conners 17′ 9″
11. Pierceson Coody 17′ 9″
12. Wyndham Clark 18′ 0″ 
13. J.J Spaun 18′ 1″
14. Chandler Phillips 18′ 4″
15. Nick Taylor 18′ 5″
16. Rico Hoey 18′ 6″
17. Max Homa 18′ 6″
18. Brandt Snedeker 18′ 6″

Proximity 125-150 Yards (2024 PGA Tour season)

1. Chandler Phillips 20′ 5″
2. Roger Sloan 20′ 5″
3. Joel Dahmen 20′ 6″
4. Justin Lower 20′ 6″
5. Robby Shelton 20′ 9″
6. KH Lee 21′ 2″
7. Trace Crowe 21′ 4″
8. Chan Kim 21′ 4″
9. Ben Kohles 21′ 4″
10. Ryan Moore 21′ 4″
11. Daniel Berger 21′ 5″
12. Keith Mitchell 21′ 6″
13. Doug Ghim 21′ 6″
14. J.J. Spaun 21′ 8″
15. Lucas Glover 21′ 9″
16. Eric Cole 21′ 11″
17. Corey Conners 21′ 11″
18. Adrian Dumont de Chassart 21′ 11″

The greens at Silverado are a bentgrass/poa mix, but as is the case on the West Coast, the poa greens are more bumpy than other poa greens that players see in other parts of the country.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Total — Poa Greens (Last 50 rounds)

1. Wyndham Clark 37.2
2. Max Homa 34.8
3. Maverick McNealy 31.9
4. Andrew Putnam 29.9
5. Kevin Kisner 29.4
6. Webb Simpson 27.1
7. Nate Lashley 25.3
8. Brandt Snedeker 24.9
9. Brendon Todd 23.8
10. Michael Kim 22.7
11. Justin Suh 22.2 (23 rounds)
12. Matt Kuchar 21.5
13. Daniel Berger 18.9
14. Taylor Montgomery 17.7 (14 rounds)
15. Lanto Griffin 17

Selections

Maverick McNealy (25-1, Bet Rivers)

McNealy finished 53rd in the FedEx Cup Standings, just missing out on the Top 50 to earn entry into all the signature events for 2025. However, he still has the opportunity for entry in the first two events next year with a strong FedEx Cup Fall. 

McNealy was runner-up here in 2021. He has seven top-10 finishes in his native California and is always strong on Poa greens. 

J.J. Spaun (34-1, Circa Sports)

Also a native Californian, Spaun ended his regular season with a T-9 at the 3M Open and a T-3 at the Wyndham Championship. 

He finished T-11 here last year and was in the top 10 at Silverado in 2020. 

Over the last 24 rounds, Spaun is ranked No. 1 for Strokes Gained: Approach, and approach play is the key here on a second-shot golf course.

Beau Hossler (52-1, Circa Sports)

Yet another native Californian, Hossler has shown that he plays his best golf out west and on Poa greens, having finished sixth at Torrey Pines and 14th at Pebble Beach earlier this season. 

He also has shown to be a more consistent player in the fall, having not finished lower than 30th in any fall event last season. 

In 2022, he was T-3 heading into the final round before finishing a disappointing 25th, so he has shown to be capable of low scores at Silverado. 

Chan Kim (55-1, DraftKings)

Chan Kim is making his first appearance at Silverado.

He has three top-12-or-better finishes in his last five events. 

Mark Hubbard (60-1, Caesars Sportsbook)

Hubbard is the “walk down Narrative Street” play of the week here at Silverado.

He played his college golf at San Jose State (90 minutes away), and this is always an important event to him. However, he forgot to register for the event. 

Even though he is fully exempt on the PGA Tour, Hubbard had to go through the Monday qualifying and shot 7-under 65 to earn a spot in this week’s field. Hubbard has finished 21st or better in four of his last five appearances here. 

Mac Meissner (60-1, FanDuel)

PGA Tour rookie Mac Meissner looks to be comfortably exempt on tour next year, sitting 88th in the FedEx Cup standings. However, he has the look of a player who is close to something more.

He had three top-10 finishes this season and has finished 20th or better in four of his last five events. 

Placement market or matchup bets will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks