Rocket Mortgage Classic Golf Predictions and Odds

Rocket Mortgage Classic

Scottie Scheffler is becoming the master of the Signature Event as he added to his trophy case with a fourth (six overall wins) victory at a short 4/1 price this time at The Travelers Championship. 

Both he and close friend Tom Kim posted 22-under as Kim buried a 10-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff after a brief interruption from a group of protestors representing a climate change organization stormed the 18th green. Kim’s second shot on the first playoff hole was a fried egg in the bunker and Scheffler two-putted for par to win on the first playoff hole.

Kim, a selection in this column at 50/1 for what sadly became our ninth runner-up on the PGA TOUR this season, almost went wire-to-wire having led at the end of each of the first three rounds. He did everything he could do to win leading the field for both Driving Accuracy (49/56 fairways hit; 87.5%) and Greens In Regulation (66/72; 91.7%), plus ranking 2nd for Scrambling (9/11; 81.8%), plus leading the field for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (+10.4). Nevertheless, Scheffler was never too far off the pace and remained the favorite for most of the event in the live betting. 

Back to Scheffler, he becomes the first player since Tiger Woods in 2009 to win six times in a season, and the first since Arnold Palmer in 1962 to tally six wins before July 1.

The good news, for golf bettors especially, is that Scheffler is taking a couple weeks off before the Scottish Open and then the Open Championship in July. So, this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit perhaps presents an opportunity for bettors to catch a price on an outright winner.

The aforementioned Tom Kim (12/1) is the tournament favorite but is also competing for the ninth consecutive week. 

Cameron Young (14/1) was the runner-up here, one of his seven career 2nd-place finishes on the PGA TOUR over the last three years, back in 2022. Young also carded a round of 59 last Saturday at the Travelers. 

Akshay Bhatia was the third man in the final pairing last Sunday that included Scheffler and Tom Kim. He held a share of the lead at one point on Sunday before finishing T-9. He is priced at 22/1 along with Min Woo Lee.

Alex Noren (30/1) finished 4th here in 2021 and 9th last year. 

Maverick McNealy (30/1) is one of the few rested players coming into this week having not played the last three weeks. 

Will Zalatoris (33/1) has been in a bit of a slump and is without a Top 10 finish for close to three months.

2024 PGA TOUR event winners Stephan Jaeger (35/1), Robert MacIntyre (40/1), and Taylor Pendrith (40/1), runner-up here in 2022, and Chris Kirk (55/1) are also in the field this week.

Rickie Fowler (50/1) broke close to a four-and-a-half-year winless drought here in Detroit last year and returns to defend his title in his sponsor’s event. 

The Field

The 156-player field will be playing for an $8.8 million purse. None of the OWGR Top 20 players are in this field as many are electing to take the week off after playing multiple Signature events sandwiched around a major championship at the U.S. Open. Nevertheless, there are 10 of the OWGR Top 50 in Detroit this week. 

Here is the full field for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic: Rocket Mortgage Classic Field

DraftKings Odds here: Golf Betting Odds & Lines: Rocket Mortgage Classic | DraftKings Sportsbook

The Course

The Detroit Golf Club is a Par 72, 7,370-yard tree-lined parklands that was originally designed by the legendary Donald Ross in 1916. 

The fairways are Bentgrass/Poa Annua and are relatively wide while the rough is a Bluegrass mixture of 4″. 

The greens are a 50/50 Bentgrass and Poa Annua mix and are on the smaller side at a 5,150 sq ft average. We saw Donald Ross greens at Pinehurst No.2 at the U.S. Open two weeks ago, but these greens in Detroit have nowhere near the runoffs that Pinehurst has. They do feature predominantly back-to-front slopes. The speed is 12 on the stimpmeter, which is around PGA TOUR average.

The course features 87 bunkers and just one water hazard on the 14th hole. 

Further course facts, courtesy of the GCSAA (Golf Course Superintendents Association of America), can be found here Rocket Mortgage Classic Tournament Fact Sheet.

Here is the official Rocket Mortgage Classic scorecard courtesy of PGATOUR.com

WXYZ Channel 7, the ABC affiliate in Detroit, provides a hole-by-hole flyover of the Detroit Golf Club:

As you can see from the video, players will not find much trouble off the tee and this course should play fairly soft where low scores will be plentiful.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Recent History

2023: Rickie Fowler (-24/264); 14/1*

2022: Tony Finau (-26/262); 14/1

2021: Cam Davis (-18/270); 150/1**

2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23/265); 7/1 

2019: Nate Lashley (-25/263); 250/1

​Playoff win over Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin – *

Playoff win over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann – **

The Rocket Mortgage Classic has only been a PGA TOUR event since 2019, but looking at the previous winners you can see big hitters off the tee flourish here like DeChambeau and Finau. Taylor Pendrith and Cameron Young are also fairly long hitters off the tee, and they finished co-runner ups to Finau in 2022.

However, a shorter hitter like Lashley won the inaugural event here because you can also putt the lights out and be victorious here. 

Statistical Analysis

With very few hazards on the course and fairly wide fairways (35.5 yards wide on average), players can feel free to attack off the tee with the driver. 

Average Driving Distance (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Min Woo Lee 314.0
2. Kevin Dougherty 313.8
3. Chris Gotterup 312.2
4. Gary Woodland 312.0
5. Alejandro Tosti 311.4
6. Jhonattan Vegas 311.0
7. Vincent Norrman 310.9
8. Kevin Yu 310.6
9. Pierceson Coody 310.4
10. Carl Yuan 310.3
11. Keith Mitchell 310.1
12. Taylor Pendrith 309.8
13. Hayden Springer 309.5

Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Kevin Dougherty 0.948
2. Keith Mitchell 0.801
3. Kevin Yu 0.789
4. Rico Hoey 0.761
5. Min Woo Lee 0.690
6. Alejandro Tosti 0.660
7. Jhonattan Vegas 0.594
8. Patrick Fishburn 0.506
9. Maverick McNealy 0.412
10. Cameron Young 0.404
11. Aaron Rai 0.379
12. Stephan Jaeger 0.378
13. Sam Stevens 0.369

Detroit Golf Club is the proverbial second-shot golf course. While the greens are on the smaller side, they are fairly easy to hit.  Rickie Fowler ranked 2nd in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in his victory last year. 

Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Patton Kizzire 0.663
2. Aaron Rai 0.639
3. Keith Mitchell 0.593
4. Greyson Sigg 0.541
5. Daniel Berger 0.518
6. Kevin Yu 0.483
7. Chandler Phillips 0.474
8. Doug Ghim 0.451
9. Ryan Moore 0.442
10. Akshay Bhatia 0.424
11. Joel Dahmen 0.421
12. Chez Reavie 0.404
13. Justin Lower 0.400

Nearly half of the approach shots will come from 150 yards out or less.

Average Proximity to the Hole – 50 to 125 Yards (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Vince Whaley 15′ 11″ (feet, inches)
2. Joel Dahmen 16′ 1″
3. Taylor Montgomery 16′ 2″
4. Chandler Phillips 16′ 4″
5. Charley Hoffman 16′ 5″
6. Patton Kizzire 16′ 9″
7. Nicolai Højgaard 17′ 0″
8. Rafael Campos 17′ 3″
9. Jake Knapp 17′ 3″
10. Thorbjørn Olesen 17′ 3″
11. Carson Young 17′ 4″
12. Nick Dunlap 17′ 6″

Average Proximity to the Hole – 125 to 150 Yards (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Chandler Phillips 19′ 2″
2. Robby Shelton 20′ 3″
3. Daniel Berger 20′ 8″
4. Chris Kirk 20′ 8″
5. Tom Kim 20′ 10″
6. Justin Lower 20′ 10″
7. Joel Dahmen 21′ 5″
8. Ryan Moore 21′ 6″
9. Ben Griffin 21′ 8″
10. Taylor Montgomery 21′ 8″
11. KH Lee 21′ 10″
12. Troy Merritt 21′ 11″
13. Davis Riley 21′ 11″

With wide fairways and greens that are fairly easy to hit, the Rocket Mortgage Classic often comes down to a putting contest. 

Strokes Gained: Putting – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Taylor Montgomery 0.887
2. Aaron Baddeley 0.749
3. Taylor Pendrith 0.714
4. Beau Hossler 0.650
5. Justin Suh 0.608
6. Tyson Alexander 0.560
7. Peter Malnati 0.532
8. Ben Silverman 0.527
9. Matt Kuchar 0.512
10. Pierceson Coody 0.511
11. Chad Ramey 0.508
12. Jacob Bridgeman 0.474
13. S.H Kim 0.473

If we want to narrow the focus to see how the players putt on Bentgrass/Poa Annua specifically:

Strokes Gained: Putting – Average Per Round – Bentgrass/Poa Annua (Last 36 Rounds)

1. Beau Hossler 0.79
2. Justin Suh 0.71
3. Kevin Dougherty 0.67 (18 Rounds)
4. Harry Hall 0.65
5. Taylor Montgomery 0.64
6. Maverick McNealy 0.63
7. Dylan Wu 0.57
8. Peter Malnati 0.55
9. Aaron Baddeley 0.52
10. Hayden Springer 0.49 (10 Rounds)
11. Nick Hardy 0.47
12. Nicolai Højgaard 0.47
13. Nate Lashley 0.44

The winning score here at the Rocket Mortgage Classic has been 23-under par or lower in four of the five years in the tournament’s short history. This event is birdies, birdies, birdies, and then more birdies.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Michael Kim 24.78%
2. Keith Mitchell 24.42
3. Nick Dunlap 24.04
4. Matt Wallace 23.88
5. Patton Kizzire 23.84
6. Erik van Rooyen 23.84
7. Jacob Bridgeman 23.81
8. Maverick McNealy 23.77
9. Cameron Young 23.77
10. Tom Kim 23.53
11. Stephan Jaeger 23.35
12. Chan Kim 23.33
13. Nico Echavarria 23.29

Three of the Par 3s played as three of the seven toughest holes here last year, so the Par 4s and Par 5s are better birdie opportunities. 

Par 4 Birdie Or Better (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Patton Kizzire 21.69%
2. Michael Kim 20.80
3. Cameron Young 20.80
4. Chris Kirk 20.07
5. Davis Riley 19.92
6. Peter Malnati 19.62
7. Ryo Hisatsune 19.60
8. Alejandro Tosti 19.54
9. Justin Lower 19.45
10. Martin Laird 19.35
11. Taylor Montgomery 19.35
12. Taylor Pendrith 19.32
13. Chandler Phillips 19.32

Par 5 Birdie Or Better (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Matt Wallace 57.24%
2. Sam Stevens 56.99
3. Nick Dunlap 56.25
4. Keith Mitchell 55.81
5. Mark Hubbard 55.00
6. S.H. Kim 54.72
7. Beau Hossler 54.12
8. Kevin Dougherty 54.03
9. Maverick McNealy 53.98
10. Max Greyserman 53.42
11. Brandon Wu 53.42
12. Min Woo Lee 53.29
13. Callum Tarren 53.13

With a winning score averaging -23.2 under par, Detroit Golf Club plays as one of the easier courses on the PGA TOUR.

Strokes Gained Total – Average Per Round – Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 36 Rounds)

1. Taylor Pendrith 1.41
2. Alex Noren 1.35
3. Ryo Hisatsune 1.08 (27 Rounds)
4. Beau Hossler 0.97
5. Doug Ghim 0.88
6. Daniel Berger 0.88
7. Luke List 0.87
8. Akshay Bhatia 0.86
9. Michael Kim 0.84
10. Ben Griffin 0.83
11. Ben Kohles 0.83
12. Eric Cole 0.77
13. Patrick Rodgers 0.75
14. Adam Svensson 0.75

Statistics courtesy of PGATOUR.com

Selections

Maverick McNealy 28/1

Unlike many players in this field towards the higher end of the odds board, McNealy comes in well-rested having last played four weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open where he finished T-7. 

McNealy is one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR especially on the Bentgrass/Poa combination. 

It is not just the putting that has been in top form as he ranks Top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee. 

He finished 8th here in 2020. 

Taylor Pendrith 30/1

Pendrith was a co-runner-up here to Finau in 2022.

He comes in with great form having won another birdie-fest event in May at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, plus a Top 10 at the Wells Fargo, a couple of Top 25s at the RBC Canadian Open and last week at the Travelers, and his best major championship finish with a T-16 at the U.S. Open where he spent most of the weekend near the Top 10.

The Canadian was also 3rd here last year after 54 holes before dropping to 14th on Sunday. 

With the Presidents Cup being held in Montreal this year, Pendrith needs a couple more good showings to make that International team and be able to play in front of his home fans. 

Matt Wallace 55/1

Wallace has two Top 12 finishes in three appearances at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The Englishman finished 4th last month at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and was 15th last week at the KLM Open where he was the tournament favorite. 

He ranks 4th in this field for Birdie Or Better Percentage and 1st for Par 5 Birdie Or Better. 

Nicolai Hojgaard 60/1

The Dane ended 2023 in hot form with a win at the DP World Tour Championship and began 2024 in the same form with a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

Since then, the form has been fair at best, but he has made the cut in all three majors and has been improving with the irons of late. 

This is his first full season playing primarily on the PGA TOUR, so it is taking time to get used to different courses and better competition, but a weaker field is where he could potentially pop this week. 

Alejandro Tosti 100/1

The Argentine is one of the bigger bombers on the PGA TOUR and the Detroit Golf Club is a perfect course for him to attack wih the driver.

His ‘bomb and gouge’ play nearly won him his first PGA TOUR event back in March where he finished T-2 at the Houston Open. 

Chandler Phillips 110/1

PGA TOUR rookie Phillips posted his best finish in March with a T-3 at the Valspar Championship.

He comes in with a T-12 at Colonial and a T-10 at the RBC Canadian Open. 

As you can see in the Proximity bucket stats, Phillips has an excellent wedge game and that should play dividends on what should be soft greens. 

Placement market and matchups will be available Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.