Matt Youmans
After watching nearly every televised shot of this tournament and looking through the stats after two days, Rickie Fowler is the most likely winner. Rory McIlroy is two strokes back yet is the favorite (+300), according to DraftKings. I would play the +360 price on Fowler.
In 2014, I bet on Fowler in each major and he finished in the top five in all four, twice the runner-up. He has 12 career Top 10s in majors and no wins, but this looks like his time and his form this season indicated this could happen. Fowler has been steady in all areas and confident with the putter. McIlroy has not won a major since 2014 and he’s probably going to get one soon.
McIlroy should have won the British last year, but he blew it on the back nine on Sunday.
On our Friday night show, I asked "Indy" Jeff Sealey, a golf handicapping guru and president of the Brooks Koepka Fan Club, if he liked Rory’s chances this weekend. "Absolutely not," Sealey said. "Rory is not going to do it. Rory is going to pee down his leg again."
Wes Reynolds
While the Los Angeles Country Club toughened a bit on Friday (especially in the afternoon where it played nearly two strokes more difficult), Rickie Fowler (+350) carded a Friday 68 to give him a 36-hole total of 130, tying Martin Kaymer in 2014 at Pinehurst for the lowest opening 36-hole total in U.S. Open history. Fowler’s round was up and down with eight birdies, six bogeys, and just four pars. He is currently ranked second in the field in both strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained putting.
Wyndham Clark (+650) will join Fowler in the final pairing on Saturday. Clark leads the field in strokes gained around the green and ranks fourth in strokes gained putting. He proved he could win against an elite field last month at the Wells Fargo Championship while cashing a 75/1 ticket for us in the process. However, this is just his first time he has been in the Top 50 of any major championship after 36 holes. This is clearly new territory for him.
Although not the in the final group for Round 3, Rory McIlroy (3/1) will be in the penultimate group with Xander Schauffele (4/1), who birdied both of his last two holes to finish at even par 70 and finish just two off the lead. McIlroy’s driver still continues to be impeccable as he leads the field for strokes gained off the tee. This is the fourth time McIlroy has started a major championship with two consecutive rounds of 67 or better. In each of the other three instances — the 2011 U.S. Open, 2014 Open Championship and 2014 PGA — he went on to win.
Harris English (22/1) is just three strokes back and has finished in the top five in two of the previous three U.S. Open Championships. He currently ranks 3rd in the field for strokes gained putting. In terms of price, he is arguably the most realistic longer shot on the board heading into the weekend.
25 of the last 27 U.S. Open champions have been within three shots of the lead after 36 holes and 15 of the last 17 were in the top-five after two rounds, so that includes Fowler, Clark, McIlroy, Schauffele, and English.
Dustin Johnson (12/1) falls outside of that criteria at 6-under and four strokes back. However, he may be carrying some momentum into the weekend as he made a quadruple bogey on the 2nd hole on Friday to fall all the way to 2-under, but fought back to shoot even par 70 and went 4-under over his last 11 holes.
Another potential outlier to the above U.S. Open historical trends could be World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (7/1), who is five back. He was way back on Sunday two weeks ago at the Memorial Tournament only to post the clubhouse lead and finish just one out of a playoff.
The course is expected to get firmer and faster over the weekend which leaves it open to possibility for some chasers to get into the mix heading into Sunday’s final round. At 4-under, the current holder of the Open Championship’s famous claret jug, Cameron Smith (30/1) is an interesting potential chaser. I like him in a third round matchup at -115 over Tony Finau. Finau has been terrific on approach this week, but Smith is currently outpacing him for both driving accuracy (73.1% to 53.8%) and for greens in regulation (75% to 58.3%).
Heading into Saturday, we currently have the two favorites on the board with pre-tournament futures – Rory McIlroy (+1550) and Rickie Fowler (59/1). We will wait until Sunday for any potential in-play outright additions.
Kelley Bydlon
As the second round comes to a close, two of the best stories in golf this year are at the top of the leaderboard.
Rickie Fowler has had quite a resurgent season and has been an absolute cash machine for top 20 bettors. Can he keep his hot run going at the U.S. Open and come away with his first Major win? He’s currently +350 to do so at DraftKings.
Right behind him is Wyndham Clark who has been another gift to bettors this season. He’s finished inside the top 40 in every tournament he’s teed it up at since the Farmers InSurance Open, including a win at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranked highly in my statistical models this week, so I won’t be looking to fade him this weekend, but this is certainly a new kind of pressure for him this weekend.
The there are a few MAJOR threats lurking behind: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Scottie Scheffler.
I won’t be adding any outrights to my card before round three, but I don’t hate the idea of anyone adding Scheffler at +700 or better. That is basically the number we were being dealt pre-tournament, and we’re actually seeing him hit some putts this week.
As far as some third round matchup bets I’ll have my eye out for:
Hideki Matsuyama
– Third in the field tee-to-green so far this week, but his putter has let him down. Putting is always a high variance part of the game, so I do expect him to putt at least a bit better this weekend and will be a target for me to bet on in third round matchups.
Tommy Fleetwood
– Like Hideki, the tee-to-green game has been solid but the putting has let him down.
Patrick Rodgers
– Has been putting out of his mind. If I see him posted in a matchup, I will likely be betting against him.
