Valspar Championship Picks and Golf Odds

The Valspar Championship

Scottie Scheffler became the first player to win The Players Championship in back-to-back years with an 8-under final round of 64 on Sunday. Scheffler, the +550 favorite pre-tournament, posted the clubhouse lead and held off Xander Schauffele, Brian Harman — both tipped in this column last week — and Wyndham Clark, who lipped out from 17 feet for birdie on the 72nd hole, by one stroke. 

Scheffler, who led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, became the first OWGR No. 1 player to win in consecutive weeks on the PGA Tour since Rory McIlroy did so during the 2012 FedEx Cup Playoffs. He also had zero three-putts for a second straight event. 

Meanwhile, Clark finished runner-up to Scheffler for a second consecutive week. It was the first time that happened on the PGA Tour since 1983 when Lanny Wadkins finished runner-up to Gil Morgan in two straight weeks. 

As for Schauffele, this was his 34th straight start on tour without a victory. He has 18 top-10 finishes in those 34 starts. This week, he is at the top of the odds board at 8-1 for the Valspar Championship just outside of Tampa, Fla. 

Sam Burns (12-1) is a two-time (2021, 2022) Valspar winner. 

Justin Thomas (14-1) has finished third and 10th here in the last two years. 

Jordan Spieth (16-1) won here in 2015 and was third here in 2023. 

Harman, last week’s co-runner-up, finished fifth here in 2022 but has missed the cut in five of the last six years. 

Tony Finau (22-1), Cameron Young (22-1), Sungjae Im (25-1), Min Woo Lee (35-1), Eric Cole (40-1), Keegan Bradley (40-1) and Nick Taylor (40-1) start the mid-range of the market. 

Defending champion Taylor Moore (80-1) is back to defend his title and 2017 champion Adam Hadwin (60-1) is also in the field. Gary Woodland (200-1) and Luke Donald (750-1) are the other Valspar champions in the field. 

The Event

The Valspar Championship was founded as the Tampa Bay Classic in 2000. Originally, the tournament was a fall event but moved to the spring portion of the season in 2007. Valspar Corporation, a manufacturer of paint and coatings now owned by Sherwin-Williams Company, took over as the title sponsor in 2014. Four players have been multiple winners of this event — K.J. Choi (2002, 2006), Retief Goosen (2003, 2009), Paul Casey (2018, 2019) and Sam Burns (2021, 2022). Other previous winners include former major champions such as Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, Gary Woodland, Jim Furyk, Mark Calcavecchia and Vijay Singh.

The Field

Ten of the Top 30 OWGR players are in the Valspar field this week. Here are the 155 players for the Valspar Championship: 

Field notes:

• Tom Kim withdrew from the field on Saturday. Trace Crowe (first alternate list) is IN. 
• Patrick Cantlay withdrew from the field on Sunday. Bronson Burgoon and Raul Pereda (sponsor exemptions) and Blaine Hale Jr. (second alternate list) are IN. 
• Braden Shattuck withdrew from the field on Monday. 
• Richy Werenski, Kevin Aylwin, Kevin Tway and David S. Bradshaw were the Monday Open qualifiers. 

The Course

The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club plays host to the Valspar Championship. The track is in Palm Harbor, Fla., about 22 miles north of downtown St. Petersburg and west of Tampa.

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) is a treelined, positional golf course located on the Pinellas Peninsula only minutes from the Gulf of Mexico. It forces many layups off the tee and asks players to work the ball in both directions. It’s a shot-maker’s course with some significant elevation changes that will open the playing field to bombers and short plotters alike.

The 1974 Larry Packard design, with a 2015 redesign from Wadsworth Golf, is atypical of most Florida courses. The par-71 of 7,340 yards is tight off the tee (sixth-narrowest fairways on tour — 27.5 yards on average) and encompasses tree-lined fairways, many elevation changes, dog-leg holes and even double dog-legs, a Packard specialty. 

Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course has more of a Carolina feel to it rather than a typical Florida layout. Water is in play on six of the 18 holes and the course has 74 bunkers. There are five par-3s here, which is unusual for a par-71 layout, four par-5s, and nine par-4s.

The five par-3s have an average length of 212 yards, three of five play longer than that.

The nine par-4s have an average length of 441 yards, one short one (380) drags down the average a bit with the majority measuring 445+ yards.

The three toughest holes on this course are all par-4s (holes 3-6-16), all of which carry a bogey-or-worse rate of nearly 25% or worse.

The four par-5s have an average length of 582.5 yards, a number that is boosted by the 605-yard fifth hole.

These are the easiest four holes on the course, and the three shortest ones had a birdie rate that was more than three times the bogey rate.

The “Snake Pit” is the signature stretch of closing holes here at holes 16-18. Pars are good scores all four days here. On average, players have made birdie here only around 10% of the time and have made bogeys around 22% of the time. No Valspar winner in the tournament’s history has played the “Snake Pit” at under par. The 16th hole is a long par-4 with an extremely narrow fairway and water on one side. Following that is the 215-yard, par-3 17th that has a tiny green surrounded by bunkers and trees on both sides. The stretch concludes with the par-4 18th, which has one of the most difficult elevated sloping greens anywhere. All three holes feature over an 18% bogey rate and under a 10% birdie rate.

The fairways and rough are a Ryegrass overseed. The green complexes were changed to TifEagle Bermudagrass in 2016. However, the Bermudagrass is more dormant in March than in late April (when the event was played last year). The slightly less than 6,000-average-square-foot greens are mostly Poa Trivialis overseed on average speed (12 stimpmeter) greens.

Eight of the past 10 years, scoring at Innisbrook has been 10 under par or lower, but the winning score had been 17 under in 2021 and 2022. 

In response, the course superintendents have increased the ryegrass rough from 3 inches to 3.75 and moved the rough with an intermediate cut from 72 inches to 21 to bring the rough 51 inches closer to the greens. These changes definitely toughened the course as 10 under was the winning score last year. 

Correlated courses here include TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town, Riviera, Colonial, TPC Southwind, TPC River Highlands and TPC San Antonio.

Recent History/Winners

2023: Taylor Moore (-10/274); 50-1

2022: Sam Burns (-17/267); 20-1*

2021: Sam Burns (-17/267); 70-1

2020: No Tournament (COVID-19)

2019: Paul Casey (-8/276); 25-1

2018: Paul Casey (-10/274); 25-1

2017: Adam Hadwin (-14/270); 125-1

2016: Charl Schwartzel (-8/276); 33-1*

2015: Jordan Spieth (-10/274); 16-1**

2014: John Senden (-7/277); 125-1

2013: Kevin Streelman (-10/274); 200-1

2012: Luke Donald (-13/271); 11-1***

2011: Gary Woodland (-15/269); 100-1

2010: Jim Furyk (-13/271); 30-1

Playoff win over Davis Riley – *

Playoff win over Bill Haas – **

Playoff win over Sean O’Hair and Patrick Reed – ***

Playoff win over SangMoon Bae, Jim Furyk and  Robert Garrigus – ****

Tournament Trends

• 15 of the last 16 winners had at least one previous top-10 finish that season before winning the Valspar Championship. 
• 13 of the last 16 winners had played in at least two previous Valspar Championships.
• 11 of the last 13 winners finished top 45 or better in their last start before the Valspar Championship.
• 11 of the last 16 winners had at least one previous career win. 

Statistical Analysis

The Greens In Regulation rate at Innisbrook is just 56.8% which is one of the lower rates on tour. Over the last seven years at the Valspar, the winner has averaged sixth or better on Approach during their respective winning weeks. 

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 28
2. Tony Finau 27.3
3. Ryan Moore 25.9
4. Sam Ryder 25.8
5. Kevin Roy 25.1
6. Lucas Glover 24.9
7. Chez Reavie 24.8
8. Doug Ghim 20.6
9. Daniel Berger 18.8
10. Aaron Rai 18.2
11. Justin Thomas 17.2
12. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 14.7
13. Eric Cole 14.2
14. Kevin Streelman 14.2
15. Davis Thompson 14

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 24 rounds)

1. Tony Finau 21.5
2. Xander Schauffele 19.5
3. Nick Taylor 17.6
4. Cameron Young 14.5
5. Justin Thomas 14.5
6. Greyson Sigg 14.2
7. Lucas Glover 14.2
8. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 13.7
9. Ryan Moore 13.4
10. Sam Ryder 11.7
11. Doug Ghim 11.5
12. Aaron Rai 11
13. Kevin Roy 10.8
14. Daniel Berger 10.6
15. Keith Mitchell 10.1

Off the tee, players are hitting fairways at a rate of only 56.2%. With fairways averaging only 28 yards wide, they rank as the sixth-most narrow on tour. Players will routinely take less than driver off the tee here. Innisbrook is a positional golf course. 

Fairways Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Aaron Rai 64.4
2. Zac Blair 58.8
3. Brendon Todd 43.3
4. Tyler Duncan 42.5
5. Brice Garnett 41.1
6. Ryan Moore 41.1
7. Ben Silverman 39.6
8. Doug Ghim 38.3
9. Joel Dahmen 36.6
10. Troy Merritt 36.3
11. Carson Young 35.7
12. Lucas Glover 35.5
13. Andrew Putnam 33.6
14. Alexander Björk 31.8
15. Akshay Bhatia 31.6

Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Aaron Rai 40
2. Andrew Putnam 35.6
3. Brice Garnett 29.2
4. Joel Dahmen 27.9
5. Ryan Moore 26.6
6. J.J. Spaun 25.9
7. Tyler Duncan 24.2
8. Ben Silverman 22.5
9. Beau Hossler 21.9
10. Victor Perez 21.8
11. Jhonattan Vegas 21
12. Carson Young 20.9
13. Zac Blair 19.5
14. Greyson Sigg 19
15. Sam Ryder 18.9
16. Josh Teater 18.8

Scrambling decreased from 66.7% in 2022 to 59.8% last year due to the thicker rough being moved closer to the greens. 

Scrambling Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Maverick McNealy 20.9
2. Taylor Montgomery 20.9
3. Aaron Baddeley 18
4. Brendon Todd 17.2
5. Austin Cook 15.4
6. Ben Griffin 14.7
7. Bud Cauley 13.4
8. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 12.7
9. Aaron Wise 12.2
10. Andrew Putnam 11.9
11. Sam Burns 11.6
12. Luke Donald 11.4
13. Peter Malnati 10.7
14. Brian Harman 10.6
15. Stewart Cink 10.4
16. Beau Hossler 10
17. Francesco Molinari 10

The Bogey Avoidance percentage is around 12% lower here at Innisbrook compared with the tour average. 

Bogey Avoidance (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 26.7
2. Chesson Hadley 23.8
3. Sam Burns 22.9
4. Doug Ghim 22.4
5. Andrew Putnam 21.8
6. Taylor Montgomery 18.8
7. Beau Hossler 17.2
8. Bud Cauley 16.4
9. Stewart Cink 16.1
10. Ryo Hisatsune 15.6
11. Nick Taylor 15.2
12. Joel Dahmen 14.6
13. Taylor Pendrith 14.1
14. Aaron Baddeley 13.7
15. Ryan Moore 13.5
16. Billy Horschel 13.3
17. Matt Kuchar 13.1
18. Greyson Sigg 13

The par-5s are the four easiest holes on the course and players will have to take advantage. 

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 36 rounds)

1. Doug Ghim 29.8
2. Min Woo Lee 22.7
3. Xander Schauffele 16.6
4. Jhonattan Vegas 16.4
5. Sam Burns 15.4
6. Mackenzie Hughes 15.3
7. Taylor Pendrith 13.8
8. Scott Stallings 13.5
9. Garrick Higgo 12.6
10. Keith Mitchell 12.5
11. Tony Finau 12.5
12. Kevin Yu 11.5
13. Beau Hossler 11.5
14. Davis Thompson 11.4
15. Josh Teater 11.3
16. Paul Barjon 11.2

Putting is not all that difficult here at Innisbrook and you can be aggressive with the flatstick. 

Strokes Gained Putting (Last 36 rounds)

1. Taylor Montgomery 37.8
2. Aaron Baddeley 28.8
3. Garrick Higgo 26.2
4. Dylan Wu 22.8
5. Billy Horschel 22.7
6. Chesson Hadley 22.2
7. Brian Harman 18.6
8. Eric Cole 18
9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 17.9
10. Brendon Todd 17.9
11. Stewart Cink 17.2
12. SH Kim 17.2
13. Sam Burns 17.1
14. Nick Taylor 16.8
15. Luke Donald 16.6
16. Justin Suh 16.2

Players have approach shots of 175 yards or longer the slight majority of the time at Innisbrook because they take less than driver off the tee. 

Proximity 175-200 Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 12.95
2. Sam Ryder 12.36
3. Cameron Young 11.05
4. Greyson Sigg 10.14
5. Carson Young 8.8
6. Chez Reavie 8.71
7. Jhonattan Vegas 8.41
8. Adam Svensson 8.3
9. Ryo Hisatsune 8.13
10. David Lipsky 8.02
11. J.J. Spaun 8
12. Gary Woodland 7.23
13. Bronson Burgoon 6.97
14. Scott Stallings 6.38
15. Michael Kim 6.34
16. Tyson Alexander 6.16

Proximity 200 + Yards (Last 36 rounds)

1. Thorbjørn Olesen 23.51
2. Carson Young 23.06
3. Kevin Dougherty 19.33 (17 rounds)
4. Tony Finau 19.21
5. Adam Svensson 19.04
6. Charley Hoffman 18.96
7. Xander Schauffele 18.84
8. Harrison Endycott 17.22
9. Ryan Palmer 15.82
10. Matt Wallace 15.54
11. Chad Ramey 14.85
12. Chez Reavie 14.74
13. J.J. Spaun 14.14
14. Keith Mitchell 13.15
15. Keegan Bradley 12.19
16. Callum Tarren 12.07

Note: Average Feet Gained Toward the Hole Per Shot from the Distance. 

Innisbrook ranked as the 10th-toughest course on the PGA Tour last year. 

Strokes Gained Total — Difficult Courses (Last 36 rounds)

1. Xander Schauffele 64.8
2. Jordan Spieth 49.8
3. Daniel Berger 41
4. Tony Finau 40
5. Justin Suh 38.8
6. Ryan Fox 36.8
7. Brendon Todd 36.2
8. Andrew Putnam 33.6
9. Min Woo Lee 33.2
10. Thomas Detry 30.4
11. Gary Woodland 30.3
12. Sungjae Im 28.4
13. Thorbjørn Olesen 27.5
14. Taylor Moore 27.5
15. Adam Hadwin 27

Selections

Tony Finau (28-1, Bet365)

Finau finished just 45th last week at The Players but did gain strokes putting on the Poa Triv greens last week. 

He elected to skip the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and targeted this event instead despite three missed cuts in four appearances, although he did finish top-5 in 2017.

Finau leads this field for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 24 rounds. 

Sepp Straka (44-1, Circa Sports)

Straka finished 16th at The Players last week.

His lone appearance here was a 46th in 2019; however, he was the first-round leader in that event. 

The Austrian is always one to look for on a ball-strikers paradise type of course. 

Doug Ghim (45-1, FanDuel)

This number has been shattered from its opener and rightfully so.

Ghim has finished in the top 16 or better in his last five starts.

In the last 24 rounds, Ghim ranks eighth for Strokes Gained: Approach and fifth for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. 

Keegan Bradley (46-1, Circa Sports)

Bradley was the runner-up to Burns here in 2021. 

He badly missed the cut last week because he was a horror show on the greens at Sawgrass. 

Aaron Rai (50-1, BetMGM)

Another top-end ball striker, like Ghim, who is seeking his first PGA Tour victory.

Rai leads this field for both Good Drives Gained and Fairways Gained at a place where accuracy is substantially more important than distance. 

Daniel Berger (100-1, FanDuel)

Berger has missed three of five cuts in 2024 since his return after an 18-month injury layoff. 

Nevertheless, his irons have been in solid shape as he is top 20 in this field for Approach over his last 12 rounds. 

Victor Perez (100-1, BetRivers)

Perez is a multiple-time winner on the DP World Tour and is playing his first full season on the PGA Tour. 

The Frenchman finished T-16 at PGA National and then T-3 at the Puerto Rico Open and ranks 11th for Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and sixth for Good Drive Percentage over the last 24 rounds. 

Placement markets, matchups, and any other futures will be available Wednesday afternoon at VSiN.com/picks