Breeders’ Cup Classic
The following are Breeders’ Cup Classic picks from our VSiN Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide handicappers – Jeremy Plonk, Mike Somich, Ed Sehon, Adam Burke, and Dave Tuley.
BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC PICKS
Jeremy Plonk
14-3-1-11
#14 Next: Freakishly dominant against weaker competition, he’s got the ability to cruise at a high speed and still turn it on late. Projected to sit a few lengths off the lead and should get a perfect spot from the far outside post to avoid any early traffic. If Next kicks in the afterburners on the far turn, he may not look back in search of eight wins in a row.
#3 City of Troy: When the world’s most successful racehorse trainer, Aidan O’Brien, says this is the best horse he’s ever trained, you listen. He won the Epsom Derby against the top three-year-olds in England and then beat Europe’s top older horses in a Juddmonte International performance that was set up to simulate American racing with his presence on the front end that day. Traveling over a dirt surface is the X-factor, but he’s sired by US Triple Crown winner Justify bred for it.
#1 Forever Young: Strong case can be made that this should be your 2024 Kentucky Derby winner after a nightmare trip saw him come up two noses short when third at Churchill Downs. Forever Young hasn’t done much since, winning a single dirt start back home in Japan, but don’t question trainer Yoshito Yahagi’s methods. His three career American starts netted two Breeders’ Cup victories at Del Mar in 2021 and this colt’s narrow loss in the Kentucky Derby. Not too shabby.
#11 Sierra Leone: Consistent rallies have made him a dependable three-year-old, finishing top-3 in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers, all at the Classic’s 1-1/4 miles distance. His inability to run straight in the stretch has cost him on multiple occasions, so his projection in the pecking order is difficult to put on top. Sire Gun Runner won the 2017 Classic when held at Del Mar with a vastly different running style.
Mike Somich
1-3-9-7 (Forever Young, City of Troy, Fierceness, Ushba Tesoro)
This is Fierceness vs. the Invaders. Most notably, City of Troy, who has arguably been the best horse in Europe since June. The biggest knock on him is his lack of dirt form; he’s never touched it, and the breeding on the Dam side, but the fact that Aidan O’Brien chose this spot over the BC Turf speaks volumes. If Fierceness can run back to his Travers he will be very tough, but consistency has always been his issue. The three Japanese horses are all live here. Forever Young grew up in his time off since the Derby and looks like a much more mature horse. Derma Sotogake, who ran second in this race last year, and Ushba Tesoro should not be counted out either.
Ed Sehon
HERE’S HOW I’LL BET THE RACE:
$100 to WIN on 11 Sierra Leone ($100)
$50 to PLACE ($50) on 11 Sierra Leone ($50)
$10 EXACTA BOXES of 1 Forever Young, 3 City of Troy, 9 Fierceness, 11 SIerra Leone ($120)
TOTAL WAGERS: $270
Adam Burke
12-1-7-11
Even though the odds favor City of Troy and Fierceness as the top horses in the Classic, it sure feels like there are a handful or more that have a chance to win, with some at better prices than others. 12 Arthur’s Ride is the one I like the most. He won on a muddy track at Saratoga in the G1 Whitney and spent a lot of energy, so I’m willing to overlook the Jockey Club Gold Cup performance. With the extra downtime, I could see a big speed figure and a signature win.
1 Forever Young is the other one I like here. The rail post isn’t a major problem as a deep closer and he probably should have won the Kentucky Derby. He’s won every other race and distance doesn’t seem like a problem here. With a good, but not great pace likely coming thanks to the number of closers, I think he should be there at the end.
Throw 7 Fierceness and 11 Sierra Leone in there to fill out the super for me.
Dave Tuley
12-9-1; long shot 5 (Arthur’s Ride, Fierceness, Forever Young; Senor Buscador)
Arthur’s Ride could be the top speed of the speed horses and steal this race, as that is not too uncommon in these big races. There are plenty of contender runners capable of going to the lead in this field, but after Arthur’s Ride went wire-to-wire at the Classic distance of a mile and a quarter distance back in June and he set the pace in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Whitney and Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup before giving up the lead. Elsewhere in this VSiN Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide, I previewed the BC Dirt Mile and that might have been a perfect spot for him, but I’m trusting the fact trainer William Mott put him here, as he must think this 4-year-old son of Tapit has a decent shot at the upset. If Mott had another starter here, the thought would be he was just entering Arthur’s Ride as a “rabbit”, but that’s not the case so “full speed ahead!”
