Churchill Downs and Santa Anita Best Bets
To rain or not to rain, that is the question in Kentucky today with the marquee card coming from Churchill Downs. At some point, the sky is expected to open up, right now around the 6th race, but it is weather, so who the heck knows? Santa Anita also has multiple Graded Stakes today and, unlike its Midwest counterpart, is expecting a sunny California day and a great day of racing.
The Blame Stakes, Churchill Downs, Race #10
What can only be described as a boulevard of broken dreams race, we have horses who have bright futures at three trying to find their footing at four in a Grade 3 race. Let’s start with #9 Cagliostro, who won in his four-year-old debut, going wire to wire over #6 Dreamlike. This is a horse that I liked last year, but could not break through against graded company. The race today sets up well for Cagliostro with just one other speed horse. While he does not need the lead, he may inherit it if the #1 doesn’t break well. He’s also eligible to take a big step forward here 2nd off the layoff.
#5 Tapit Trice, one of the favorites in last year’s Derby, will make his 2024 debut after multiple setbacks off the track. The talent has always been here for Trice, but the layoff and health issues are a concern heading into this race. Like Cagliostro, Dreamlike will be running 2nd off the layoff as well and should improve. The connections threw him to the wolves as a maiden in a graded stakes last year, tipping their hand on the talent the colt has, so I expect him to run well.
#2 Highland Falls enters the race with the best last out numbers from a 2nd place finish at Oaklawn last out. He is lightly raced compared to this group and could just keep getting better. My issues with him are the short price, he’s the morning line favorite, and the fact all his best races are in losses to date. He’s yet to win a race with a number that would beat this field.
Picks: 9-5-6-2
Churchill Downs Best Bets: $50 Win – 9
Honeymoon Stakes, Santa Anita, Race #7
This field drew very well and thus created a solid betting opportunity. Morning line favorite #3 Faith Understood will ship in from the East Coast to take on the best in the West here and will be a factor from the jump. He will want to be forwardly placed and try to go gate to wire.
The issue is that his main foe from an odds perspective, #7 Shiloh’s Mistress, will be trying to do the same thing. Shiloh just missed last time out while on the lead over this Santa Anita track without much pace pressure, so how these two handle the early part of the race will be a huge factor in who wins.
If they both go as expected, it sets up beautifully for #5 Circle of Trust who goes postward for So Cal super turf trainer Phil D’Amato. Trust has every right to improve off his last races, which was his first time facing winners while having a less-than-stellar trip and gets an upgrade in the saddle to Antonio Fresu.
#4 Sea Dancer also looks like here with tactical speed to sit behind the top two and pounce. His main issue will be the layoff; we haven’t seen him on the track since March.
Picks: 5-3-7-4
Santa Anita Best Bets: $50 Win – 5
Spot Plays:
Santa Anita Race #5 – $50 Win #4
Churchill Downs Race #11 – $50 Win #3 *if we stay on the turf
