Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is always an interesting handicapping puzzle to solve.
This one-mile race on dirt wasn’t part of the original Breeders’ Cup lineup when the event debuted in 1984. Instead, it was added when the number of races expanded in 2007.
Because it’s a route race and run on dirt, even casual horse racing fans will recognize several of the Dirt Mile contestants as it usually features horses that have run in Triple Crown races in recent years but might not have been able to get the “Classic” distance of a mile and a quarter and instead their connections opt for this shorter version. A perfect example of the above is Seize the Gray, who won this year’s Preakness, the second jewel of the Triple Crown, at a mile and a sixteenth.
On Monday, the Dirt Mile drew a full field of 14. Let’s look at this year’s contenders in what should be a wide-open race.
#9 Domestic Product (7-2) was installed as the morning-line favorite coming off of back-to-back wins in the Grade 3 Dwyer at his mile distance in July at the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet and the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens at seven furlongs in August at Saratoga. The Chad Brown trainee came from well off the pace in the Jerkens and should have plenty of pace to run at in the Dirt Mile.
#14 Skippylongstocking (4-1) is the second choice and fits well here. He finished third in the Dirt Mile last year at Santa Anita and has three graded stakes victories this year, though he did fail as the odds-on favorite in the Grade 2 Woodward at the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet in his most recent start on Sept. 28.
#10 Muth (9-2) is trained by Bob Baffert and could be considered the “horse-for-the-course” with a 2-1-1-0 record at Del Mar, including winning the $125,000 Shared Belief Stakes on Sept. 1 at this exact distance. He came up short as the 3-2 favorite in the Grade 2 California Crown at Santa Anita on Sept. 28 or he might have been favored here.
#1 Saudi Crown (5-1) could be the pacesetter after going wire-to-wire at this mile distance in an ungraded stakes race at Ellis Park on Aug. 11 after returning to the states from Dubai, but the feeling here is that there are at least five other horses that could be gunning for the lead and they could all compromise each other’s chances: #2 T O Saint Denis (30-1), #3 Full Serrano (15-1), #11 Cagliostro (30-1) and #13 Pipeline (30-1). You’ll note that the first two will break just to the right of Saudi Crown with the latter two long shots gunning from the far outside. This could be a “run each other into the ground” pace.
#6 Seize the Grey (10-1) was mentioned in the intro as this year’s wire-to-wire Preakness winner and comes into the Dirt Mile with another wire-to-wire victory in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 21 at a mile and an eighth. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee also has a win at a mile in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile at Churchill back on Derby Day.
#12 Mufasa (12-1) comes in off of two straight wins in an optional claiming race at Colonial Downs on Aug. 12 but then stepped up to win the Grade 3 Vosburgh at the Belmont-at-Aqueduct meet on Sept. 28. This five-year-old has done most of his racing in Chile, but is 10-for-13 lifetime, so he knows how to find the winner’s circle. In fact, he’s my value play in the race as long as he stays in double digits, which should be the case with this wide-open race.
Live longshots? I’ve said all along this is a wide-open race, and anything can happen in the Breeders’ Cup because a lot of very talented horses get overlooked and go off at odds that you won’t see on them at any other time. I’m mostly looking at #2 T O Saint Denis (30-1) and #13 Pipeline (30-1) although both will likely be part of that rush to the lead I discussed in the Saudi Crown paragraph, but I give the edge to Pipeline even though his only wins this year haven’t been in stakes races. He fits here and could pull the shocker.
1-2-3-Longshot picks in BC Dirt Mile
#12 Mufasa (12-1)
#10 Muth (9-2)
#9 Domestic Product (7-2)
#13 Pipeline (30-1)
