Breeders’ Cup Turf
While many consider the Breeders’ Cup Classic to be the biggest race of the weekend, across the pond, the European contingent would tell you it’s the Breeders’ Cup Turf, a one mile and half trip to decide the best turf horse in the world. That’s especially apparent when you look at past winners of the race. In eight of the last nine runnings, a European has won this, with five of those wins going to top trainers Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby.
The Favorite
Based on the past, it’s no surprise that the favorite is the Appleby trainee #11 Rebel’s Romance, 5/2 on the morning line, who won this race at Keeneland in 2022. His 2023 campaign did not go as planned, which caused him to miss this race last year, but 2024 has been all systems go while racking up over $6 million in earnings worldwide while facing top competition at every stop. He’s a very deserving favorite who has won four of five starts this year, and while the post isn’t ideal, he has more than enough talent to overcome it.
The Contenders
French champion, #5 Jayarebe, is the most logical contender. He’s a three-year-old who consistently improved throughout the season, but will need to continue to do so to win today. He is a faster European horse early so the US racing style should suit him well.
#2 Emily Upjohn looks to be the fourth filly or mare to win this race in the last nine years. She’s consistently run against the best lady turfers in Europe this season, but has not picked up a win. Top jock Frankie Dettori picks up the mount and knows her well. He’s ridden her six times resulting in four of her five career wins including the Group 1 Coronation Cup last season. The biggest threat may very well come from across the Pacific.
Japanese invader #3 Shahyar ran third in this race last year and followed an identical path to this spot. He seems to be in better form this year and ran second to Rebel’s Romance at Meydan. The biggest knock on him is he has not won a race since March of 2022.
Best chance for America this year is #6 Far Bridge, who has been phenomenal since returning to the Clement barn in early 2024. He enters off of back-to-back wins in Grade 1 races but has not been tested against the best in the world. No horse from either race is entered today.
The Longshots
There are two O’Brien trainees in this spot that I like as a price. #10 Wingspan is an up-and-coming three-year-old who is regally bred to compete at this level of racing. She faced the best in ladies in Europe last time out running a solid second in her first effort at Group 1 company. She will need to improve, but she has early speed and the 15-1 price is enticing.
#4 Luxembourg is another of the Europeans with speed. He’s run against the best all year in 10 starts and has won at this top level of racing. He’s won two of those starts, including one at this distance, and he reunites with jockey Ryan Moore who has won this race five times.
Local favorite #12 Gold Phoenix looks to be the best U.S.-based long shot here. He absolutely loves Del Mar, where he’s racked up half his career victories and won four of his six starts. Expect Gold Phoenix to do his best running late which very well may benefit him here as there looks to be quite a bit of speed. He ran fourth in this race last year so you know he can handle the company and now he gets them on his home track.
The Picks
It’s tough to go against Rebel’s Romance in this spot especially since all of the horses who I have listed as main competitors have major knocks. Rebel’s Romance beat Shahyar in their only meeting, Emily Upjohn has not won since June of last year, and Jayarebe and Far Bridge have never faced a field close to this good. While there are similar knocks on Wingspan as Emily Upjohn and Jayarebe, at least I am getting the right price at 12-1. Luxembourg also looks interesting at his 12-1 price. However, he will have to turn the tables on Rebel’s Romance as well if he prevails. All in all, it’s too hard to not back the favorite here as the best win contender.
The Bets
Win – Rebel’s Romance – Only bet at 5/2 or better
Exactas – 11 over 4 and 10
Triple – 4 and 11 over 4, 5, 10 and 11 over 4, 5, 10, 11 and 12
Picks – 11-4-10-5
