Del Mar Picks:
With Hurricane Debby still hitting the East Coast, we have a lighter Friday of racing than normal. Saratoga is cancelled today to prepare for the weekend, and stakes races at both Colonial and Saratoga have moved from Saturday to Sunday. However, it’s still sunny in San Diego for Del Mar’s Friday card of twilight racing, with a first post at 7 p.m. ET.
Graduation, Del Mar, Race #7
One of my favorite types of races at these August meets on both coasts are the two-year-old stakes races, where you can see horses take huge steps forward. This year’s Graduation, run at five and a half furlongs on the dirt for Cal-breds, is no different. The favorite will be #3 R Heisman for Peter Miller with leading rider JJ Hernandez riding. He ran well in two state-bred maiden races before taking on open stakes company in Northern California, where he ran a tough 2nd. He has passed horses before, something much of this field cannot claim, and his numbers are in line, but the price at 6/5 is just too short for me.
Directly to his outside is #4 Bodacious, who was dazzling on debut versus state-bred competition at Santa Anita before shipping out to Churchill to face the best younger horses on the East Coast. He was the favorite at Churchill, where he contested a hot pace and quit. The effort was better than it looks on paper, and the field he faces today is significantly easier. If Bodacious can run back to his debut effort, he will be tough in this spot, and the 6-1 price is enticing.
#7 I’m a Bad Boy has yet to win a race, but faced tough maidens in both races. He will need to improve again today, but I trust two-year-old super trainer Luis Mendez to get him ready for this spot.
#6 Case Hit beat two of these in his debut maiden-breaking score. He flashed impressive speed and was able to hold off the closers late. He should be more fit here in his 2nd career start. If he can clear here, he becomes very dangerous.
Del Mar Picks: 4-3-6-7
Bets: $50 Win #4
$30k Claimers N3L, Del Mar, Race #8
The closing race of the day is an interesting puzzle going one mile on the turf. #3 Bee Catcher was running at this level before taking a shot in stakes company last time. He set the pace and ran a solid fourth against much better than this group. There is not a lot of speed signed on today, so he should get a good trip while likely riding the rail on both turns. While he is the favorite, he has a lot of races on the page that would win this one.
#1 Explain This Audit ran huge last time out, going significantly longer than today’s distance. He has shown the talent to beat these, but the aforementioned distance is the issue. He is winless in 7 starts at a mile, and most of his success has been going longer.
#2 Mega Moon returns to the claiming level for the first time since beating maiden claimers in July of 2023. He has run well at the track, finishing 1st or 2nd in every turf effort at Del Mar. That being said, he has yet to win at a mile. The level may be the equalizer, but some big questions need to be answered.
#6 Incredible Shot has been sprinting in four of his last five races, but he has won at a mile in the past. His numbers all fit, but he just doesn’t seem to like to win. It’s over a year since he’s found the winners circle and is 0 for the last 12.
Del Mar Picks: 3-1-2-6
Bets: $50 Win #3
Spot Plays:
Del Mar, Race #5, $50 Win #9
Del Mar, Race #4. $50 Win #7
