Horse Racing Best Bets
We have three major Kentucky Derby prep this weekend at Santa Anita, Aqueduct and Gulfstream. Santa Anita’s prep lack luster with five horses running and three trained by Bob Baffert, but it is a chance to see the best three-year-old in the country, Nysos. The other two preps are bangers with a wide-open race at Aqueduct and up to four Derby horses running at Gulfstream, so let’s dive into both for my horse racing best bets!
The Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, Race #14
In what seems to be the most impactful prep yet, the Fountain of Youth sports the return of #5 Dornock, who dug in and beat current future pool favorite Sierra Leone last time out. In both of his wins, he has gone gate to wire. That will be a tough task today with an abundance of speed signed on.
Both #1 Speak Easy and #3 Victory Avenue debuted on the undercard of the Pegasus and find themselves in stakes company off the effort. Speak Easy won that race for top trainer Todd Pletcher, but both were on the engine from the opening bell. If either is able to rate, the talent is there to be a contender. Of the two, I like Victory Avenue more based on the pedigree. As the races get longer, he should get better.
Pletcher’s other entry #8 Locked could benefit from the three horses mentioned above who all want to be forwardly placed. He won the Grade 1 Breeder’s Futurity at Keeneland from off the pace and ran a good third in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last time out.
#4 Real Macho is the other horse who could benefit from a hot pace early. This will be his first step up in class to stakes company, but a step forward from his allowance win would put him in the mix at a nice price, currently 8-1.
Picks: 8-4-3-5
Horse Racing Best Bets:
$50 Win – #8
$10 Tri – 8,4 / 3,4,8 / 3,4,8
The Gotham, Aqueduct, Race #10
This prep is one of the shorter Kentucky Derby preps left on the calendar, which created havoc last year. At one mile, you’ll generally see more sprinters stretching out, and that can create a pace collapse. Last year that is exactly what we saw with a price winning the race from off the pace. I will also look to a closer for my top pick here. #3 Deterministic came from back in the pack to win his first race and will try to do so again. He gets Hall of Fame nominee jockey Joel Rosario aboard and has every right to take a big step forward off of the long layoff.
Brad Cox will send four horses postward including the favorite #10 Just a Touch who blazed early and often breaking his maiden last time at Fair Grounds.
I’m more interested in the #8 Bergen, who will be running second off the layoff here. While he has speed, he does not need the lead to be able to get the win.
#7 El Grande O figures to be right there at the end. He is another one with pace, but he showed the ability to stalk last time out at a longer distance and pass horses. Today, he should be sitting in a nice position entering the stretch. While I don’t think he can win, I do like his chances to hit the board.
The longshot that caught my eye was the #13 Capital Idea. His trainer, Clement, has Deterministic in here and chose to run this horse as well. He won impressively last time out from a stalking trip at 2-1, and now we get a nice 12-1 price due to the jump in class. I expect him to outrun his odds here.
Picks: 3-8-13-7
Horse Racing Best Bets:
$25 Exacta – 3 / 8,13
$5 Trifecta Box – 3,8,13
Spot plays:
Gulfstream Race #6 – $50 Win #5
Gulfstream Race #7 – $50 Win #1
Gulfstream Race #11 – $50 Exacta 5 / 4
