Horse Racing Best Bets
Another weekend brings us some horse racing cards! Kentucky Derby season gets into full swing with four prep races across the country from Aqueduct to Santa Anita, all highlighted by the return of Fierceness, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner in the Holy Bull. Bob Baffert will also send out four horses in prep races this weekend, all of which cannot earn points. I like the Baffert trainee Wynstock in the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, one of the preps that I am not covering in this article. Let’s take a closer look at the Holy Bull and Withers Stakes races.
The Holy Bull Stakes, Gulfstream, Race #12
Let’s start with a banger in the Grade 3 Holy Bull who won one of my favorite runnings of the Travers at Saratoga over Concern! This race is all about the return of #7 Fierceness, who was phenomenal in his debut at Saratoga before disappointing in the slop at Aqueduct. The latter race was the reason he went off at 19-1, winning in the Breeders’ Cup. I came into this race trying to beat him. Pletcher is famous for a three-race progression into the Derby which would mean he is not fully cranked for this one, but the field left something to be desired. I’m going to put him on top but try to hit a big trifecta here with some prices underneath.
#2 Inveigled is 12-1 on the morning line and at the price I am most interested in. He was 4-1 last time out in the Mucho Macho Man and had an awful trip. After being boxed in, he did not find room to run until late and was hung wide. Irad Ortiz Jr is riding back for the Cibelli barn, whom he rarely rides for, which is a huge plus.
#3 Otello won the Mucho Macho Man last out and will get the trip here again. He wants to come from off the pace, and a bunch of speed is signed on today. Saez will have Otello rolling late, and it’s just a question of how many he will be able to pass in the stretch.
One of those speed horses, #1 Hades, will try to get the jump on the field from the rail. He is coming out of back-to-back sprint races but stretches out significantly today. If he gets left alone on the front end, he’s liable to take a slice.
Picks: 7-2-3-1
Racing Best Bets:
$25 Exacta – 7 / 2
$10 Tri – 7 / 2,3 / 2,3
$15 Tri – 7 / 2 / 3
The Withers Stakes, Aqueduct, Race #9
The first true distance test of the Derby preps will be at Aqueduct, with the Withers going 1 1/8th Mile. Only one horse in the field, #1 Speed Runner, has traveled that far to date and holds an edge on the field for that reason alone. He was able to win at this distance last time out by a neck, but the waters get deeper today. That was against a field of horses who had not won a race, today he faces stakes company.
The favorite will be #3 Lightline for trainer Brad Cox who has yet to win after breaking his maiden. That being said, both of his losses have been to respectable horses, including Carbone, who will run in the Southwest, and he is bred to love the added distance. This will be Lightline’s second race off the layoff which is generally a good angle for improvement. It will be interesting to see how he is positioned in this race. He showed speed early in his career, but off the layoff, he was last of 12 horses at the ½ mile point. If I am a backer, I want him forwardly paced.
#4 El Grande O will be popular at the windows. The most seasoned of the contenders, he’s already run nine races in his career. He will be on the lead early and then gasping for air late. If he can get the distance, he’s a threat.
Don’t sleep on #6 Society Man, who is 20-1 on the morning line. He ran third behind Speed Runner last out and got a horrible trip doing so. He was hung wide on both turns and still showed some kick. Now he’s second off the layoff and projects to be in less trouble.
#7 Mission Beach is 1 for 1 in the Russell barn after leaving Bob Baffert and the West Coast behind. While with Baffert, he felt this was talented enough of a colt to run him in Graded Stakes twice in California. His breeding says he can get the distance, and if so, then watch out. Another contender in a wide-open race.
Picks: 3-1-6-7
Racing Best Bets:
$10 Tri – 3 / 1,6 / 1,6,7
$5 Tri 1 / 3,6 / 3,6,7
$2 Tri 6 / 1,3 / 1,3,7
Spot plays:
Gulfstream Race #10 – $50 Win #4
Oaklawn Race #1 – $50 Win #8
