Horse Racing Best Bets
We are in for another loaded Saturday of racing with great cards from both Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs. Derby points are once again up for grabs, with the Tampa Bay Derby being contested today. Traditionally, Chad Brown has had a monster day on Tampa Bay Derby day, and it looks like he is set up well again, especially in the Late Pick 5, where he could win the final four races. Let’s take a look at today’s horse racing best bets.
Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs, Race #11
On paper, we could be set up with a two-horse race here at Tampa. #7 No More Time enters as the morning line favorite at 7/5 of off a breakout win in the Sam F Davis here at Tampa Bay. He inherited the lead that day and went gate to wire impressively. There is more speed signed on today, but he does not need the lead to win so expect a stalking trip.
#5 Domestic Product is the other short price on the morning line at 8/5. Last seen, this Chad Brown trainee ran second in the Holy Bull and beat Fierceness. That was a nice step forward in the three-year-old seasonal debut, but the price is way too short today. He was 15-1 in the Holy Bull, and that field was worse than this one, with the exclusion of Fierceness, who simply did not fire.
Chad Brown does have another in this race and it’s the intriguing #4 Good Money who broke his maiden at first effort here at Tampa Bay going 7 furlongs. Everything screams improvement off that race from the breeding, which is two turns, to Irad Ortiz, Brown’s top rider, taking the mount. He will have to get a lot better quickly, but the fact Brown added him to a field that includes Domestic Product tips his hand that he believes. The 15-1 price is not bad either!
#10 Sturdy will run in a stakes without winning a race. While that is a better trend when horses are two years old and not three, it’s a logical placement for a horse that has run well twice at 1 1/8 miles and took a nice step forward last out. The cutback to 1 1/16th mile today should help, and he should be rolling late.
Tampa Bay Downs Picks: 7-4-10-5
Horse Racing Best Bets:
$25 Exacta – 7 / 4,10
$5 Trifecta – 4,7 / 4,7,10 / 4,5,7,10
The Florida Oaks, Tampa Bay Downs, Race #10
While the Tampa Bay Derby is the highlight of the card, the most interesting race comes one race before in the Florida Oaks where 11 three-year-old fillies will take to the turf. Chad Brown will send out two, #10 Weigh the Risks and #11 Dynamic Pricing, who will both take money. Of the two, I like Weigh the Risks more. She hasn’t been seen since September at Saratoga, but both of those races were loaded, and her trips were not exactly great. The outside post doesn’t help either horse, so I would rather look for a better number inside.
We find that with the #5 Waskesiu, who won on turf debut and then jumped into stakes competition. She ran third in the Ginger Brew as a 1.80-1 favorite but got the worst of the trip. She did not break well and was hung wide for much of the race. With a better break today, the 8-1 price will look like a gift on a track that favors forwardly placed horses.
#7 Style Points beat Dynamic Pricing by a neck last time out with a ground-saving trip, but she is a bigger price today at 5-1. She has improved in every start and has tactical speed which should set her up to be right there at the end.
The bomber in here is the #1 Poolside with Slim, who should control the pace from the jump at 15-1. If she gets left alone, she can take this field gate to wire.
Tampa Bay Downs Picks: 5-7-1-10
Best Bets:
$50 Win – #5
$5 Trifecta – 5 / 1,7,10 / 1,7,10
Spot plays:
Tampa Bay Race #8 – $50 Win #1
Santa Anita Race #10 – $50 Win #4
Tampa Bay Race #6 – $50 Tri – 3 / 4 / 5
