Keeneland Best Bets
With just one prep left for the Kentucky Derby, all eyes in horse racing will be on Keeneland and their fantastic card. It’s been raining all week in Kentucky and the major takeaway is how well speed has done over the track. In one-turn races, you have to be near or on the lead to win. We’ve seen more horses come from behind when going two turns, but speed has still played well.
Lexington Stakes, Keeneland, Race #10
After scratching out last week, #8 Encino is back trying to get enough points to have a shot to make the gate at Churchill. The setup is good enough with a couple of speed horses entered, but the real test will be how he handles the dirt for trainer Brad Cox. If he is able to covert his synthetic form over then he will be tough, but don’t expect to get the morning line price of 8-1.
#2 The Wine Steward is returning to the track after a long layoff. He should be forwardly placed and if he improves off his 2-year-old efforts then he will be a major player in this one.
All the way to the outside, #10 Lucky Jeremy, projects to make the lead. His effort in the Sunland Derby was flattered last weekend with a win in the Santa Anita Derby by Stronghold. If he is able to get to the front and relax, he can take this field gate to wire.
The #9 Liberal Arts returns after a troubled trip in the Arkansas Derby where he never got a chance to show his talent. His style does not play well to the track, he will be coming from the back, but if the pace is hot, he will be the main horse to benefit.
Picks: 8-2-10-9
Keeneland Best Bets:
$50 Win #8
$5 Trifecta – 8 / 2,9,10 / 2,9,10
Jenny Wiley Stakes, Keeneland, Race #9
The morning line favorite, #6 Gina Romantica will be one of the four horses headed postward for trainer Chad Brown. She ran very well in her last two races, but both were at a mile. The added distance today and the first off the layoff for a horse that has run into form the last two cycles is enough to make to try to beat her.
#9 Didia was phenomenal last season and is a perfect four for four at the distance. She does not need to improve to be able to beat this field and the presence of Gina Romantica should ensure a fair price.
#5 English Rose invades from Europe for always dangerous Charlie Appleby. His top jockey, William Buick, also made the trip across the pond to ride which tips the hand that this one is live. The soft turf also plays into her favor since it’s similar to the surfaces she has been running over in Europe.
The race is lacking speed with makes #1 Walkathon dangerous. If none of the Brown entries try to go to the lead, she should have everything her own way early. Firmer turf would have been to her benefit, but at 10-1 she has a shot at taking the field gate to wire.
The other Brown I am interested in is #7 Surge Capacity. Of the four Brown’s, she is the most likely to show a new dimension and go to the lead. We’ve consistently seen Chad Brown steal races like this with the send style before which makes her dangerous.
Picks: 9-5-1-7
Keeneland Best Bets:
$50 Win #9
Spot plays:
Keeneland Race #7 – $50 Win #8Keeneland Race #6 – $50 Exacta 3-2
